IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guming-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40622:1" rel="noopener">Guming Holdings (GUM HK)</a> (Good me), a freshly-made tea store brand, has launched an HKEx IPO to raise up to US$202 million.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/guming-holdings-good-me-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:173217" rel="noopener">Guming Holdings (Good Me) IPO: The Bull Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/guming-holdings-good-me-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:173512" rel="noopener">Guming Holdings (Good Me) IPO: The Bear Case</a>.</li>
<li>There are five cornerstone investors. Our valuation analysis suggests that Guming is attractively valued at the IPO price range. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.</li>
</ul>



Guming Holdings (GUM HK) (Good me), a freshly-made tea store brand, has launched an HKEx IPO to raise up to US$202 million.
We previously discussed the IPO in Guming Holdings (Good Me) IPO: The Bull Case and Guming Holdings (Good Me) IPO: The Bear Case.
There are five cornerstone investors. Our valuation analysis suggests that Guming is attractively valued at the IPO price range. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.


Guming Holdings (1364 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of December 13th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Alibaba, CCB, China Mobile, ICBC, Byd Electronic (International), Meituan, Wuxi Biologics, Tencent.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of December 13th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Alibaba, CCB, China Mobile, ICBC, Byd Electronic (International), Meituan, Wuxi Biologics, Tencent.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Dec 13th): Alibaba, CCB, China Mobile, ICBC, Byd Electronic (International)

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Xiaocaiyuan International Holding / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The financial data for 2024 has already shown investors weak growth signal.After IPO, Xiaocaiyuan may face stricter scrutiny from investors and the market in terms of its sustainable performance growth.</li>
<li>It’s not easy for Xiaocaiyuan to find new growth points. Catering companies commonly face problems such as performance fluctuations and uncertain profitability, which has left their share price underperforming.</li>
<li>Post investment valuation has already reached RMB10 billion, which far exceeds the market value of A-share peers. Due to concerns on the outlook, valuation performance after IPO could be lower-than-expected.</li>
</ul>


The financial data for 2024 has already shown investors weak growth signal.After IPO, Xiaocaiyuan may face stricter scrutiny from investors and the market in terms of its sustainable performance growth.
It’s not easy for Xiaocaiyuan to find new growth points. Catering companies commonly face problems such as performance fluctuations and uncertain profitability, which has left their share price underperforming.
Post investment valuation has already reached RMB10 billion, which far exceeds the market value of A-share peers. Due to concerns on the outlook, valuation performance after IPO could be lower-than-expected.


Pre-IPO Xiaocaiyuan International Holding (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>During Hong Kong's market correction during November, we noticed that the Put/Call spread stayed below 1 and the skew moved to its lowest level in 3 years both bullish signals.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yum-china-holdings-inc-0533692c-6dae-4014-baa1-ed0b050638f2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29259:1" rel="noopener">Yum China Holdings (9987 HK)</a> share price had a golden cross breakout on December 3, as the casual dining sector in China shows growth going into next year.
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/miniso-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36659:1" rel="noopener">MINISO Group Holding (9896 HK)</a> had a breakout from a falling wedge pattern relative to MXEF.  The gap up in the share price and momentum signals confirms the uptrend.
</li>
</ul>


During Hong Kong's market correction during November, we noticed that the Put/Call spread stayed below 1 and the skew moved to its lowest level in 3 years both bullish signals.

Yum China Holdings (9987 HK) share price had a golden cross breakout on December 3, as the casual dining sector in China shows growth going into next year.


MINISO Group Holding (9896 HK) had a breakout from a falling wedge pattern relative to MXEF.  The gap up in the share price and momentum signals confirms the uptrend.



Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (DECEMBER 5)

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>As Hong Kong market continues to consolidate, the consumer discretionary sector is leading in momentum and strength while the energy and materials sectors lag.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com Group (9961 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:180:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (TCOM US)</a> received BUY ratings after a strong 3Q24 announcement on revenue and earnings.  China's tourist numbers are projected to reach Pre-COVID levels soon.
</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yum-china-holdings-inc-0533692c-6dae-4014-baa1-ed0b050638f2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29259:1" rel="noopener">Yum China Holdings (9987 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yum-china-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23677:1" rel="noopener">Yum China Holdings (YUMC US)</a> received BUY ratings after initial success from its small store/franchising strategy.  The company is actively returning capital to shareholders.</li>
</ul>


As Hong Kong market continues to consolidate, the consumer discretionary sector is leading in momentum and strength while the energy and materials sectors lag.

Trip.com Group (9961 HK) , Trip.com (TCOM US) received BUY ratings after a strong 3Q24 announcement on revenue and earnings.  China's tourist numbers are projected to reach Pre-COVID levels soon.

Yum China Holdings (9987 HK) , Yum China Holdings (YUMC US) received BUY ratings after initial success from its small store/franchising strategy.  The company is actively returning capital to shareholders.


BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (NOVEMBER 29)

China

Jiumaojiu International Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, focuses on manufactures food products. Jiumaojiu International Holdings serves customers in China.

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Jiumaojiu (9922 HK)

Guming Holdings (1364 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights

Our valuation analysis suggests that Guming is attractively valued at the IPO price range. Pricing is on 10 February, and the shares will be listed...

Arun George

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Dec 13th): Alibaba, CCB, China Mobile, ICBC, Byd Electronic (International)

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Alibaba, CCB, China Mobile, ICBC, Byd Electronic...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Pre-IPO Xiaocaiyuan International Holding (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

Investors wary of Xiaocaiyuan's weak growth signal post-IPO, facing scrutiny over sustainability and struggle to find new growth points.Valuation...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (DECEMBER 5)

Hong Kong show decreased volatility and increased mainland buying continue since the US election. YUM China share price broke out (golden...

David Mudd

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (NOVEMBER 29)

Hong Kong and China markets are outperforming their Asian peers this year. Trip.com announced strong results as China's tourism industry...

David Mudd

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Guming Holdings (1364 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights

Our valuation analysis suggests that Guming is attractively valued at the IPO price range. Pricing is on 10 February, and the shares will be listed...

Arun George

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Dec 13th): Alibaba, CCB, China Mobile, ICBC, Byd Electronic (International)

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Alibaba, CCB, China Mobile, ICBC, Byd Electronic...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Pre-IPO Xiaocaiyuan International Holding (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

​Investors wary of Xiaocaiyuan's weak growth signal post-IPO, facing scrutiny over sustainability and struggle to find new growth points.Valuation...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (DECEMBER 5)

Hong Kong show decreased volatility and increased mainland buying continue since the US election. YUM China share price broke out (golden...

David Mudd

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (NOVEMBER 29)

Hong Kong and China markets are outperforming their Asian peers this year. Trip.com announced strong results as China's tourism industry...

David Mudd

Investors wary of Xiaocaiyuan's weak growth signal post-IPO, facing scrutiny over sustainability and struggle to find new growth points.Valuation...