HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tam-jai-international-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tam Jai Intl (2217 HK)</a>'s suspension has led to speculation about a privatisation or takeover. Its huge net cash, equal to 115% of market capitalisation, makes it appealing. </li>
<li>Its controlling shareholder Toridoll Holding Limited owns a 74.61% stake and there is no shareholder with more than a 5% interest. This makes a deal seemingly simple.</li>
<li>Assuming priced at the average P/B of 1.63x, this means HK$1.90, or 110% premium to the latest close, which is costly to the major shareholder.</li>
</ul>



Tam Jai Intl (2217 HK)'s suspension has led to speculation about a privatisation or takeover. Its huge net cash, equal to 115% of market capitalisation, makes it appealing. 
Its controlling shareholder Toridoll Holding Limited owns a 74.61% stake and there is no shareholder with more than a 5% interest. This makes a deal seemingly simple.
Assuming priced at the average P/B of 1.63x, this means HK$1.90, or 110% premium to the latest close, which is costly to the major shareholder.


Tam Jai Intl (2217 HK): Is It Privatisation or Takeover?

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guming-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40622:1" rel="noopener">Guming Holdings (GUM HK)</a> (Good me), a freshly-made tea store brand, has launched an HKEx IPO to raise up to US$202 million.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/guming-holdings-good-me-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:173217" rel="noopener">Guming Holdings (Good Me) IPO: The Bull Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/guming-holdings-good-me-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:173512" rel="noopener">Guming Holdings (Good Me) IPO: The Bear Case</a>.</li>
<li>There are five cornerstone investors. Our valuation analysis suggests that Guming is attractively valued at the IPO price range. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.</li>
</ul>



Guming Holdings (GUM HK) (Good me), a freshly-made tea store brand, has launched an HKEx IPO to raise up to US$202 million.
We previously discussed the IPO in Guming Holdings (Good Me) IPO: The Bull Case and Guming Holdings (Good Me) IPO: The Bear Case.
There are five cornerstone investors. Our valuation analysis suggests that Guming is attractively valued at the IPO price range. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.


Guming Holdings (1364 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of December 13th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Alibaba, CCB, China Mobile, ICBC, Byd Electronic (International), Meituan, Wuxi Biologics, Tencent.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of December 13th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Alibaba, CCB, China Mobile, ICBC, Byd Electronic (International), Meituan, Wuxi Biologics, Tencent.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Dec 13th): Alibaba, CCB, China Mobile, ICBC, Byd Electronic (International)

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Xiaocaiyuan International Holding / Equity Capital Markets

Xiaocaiyuan International Holding (XCY HK)

<ul>
<li>The financial data for 2024 has already shown investors weak growth signal.After IPO, Xiaocaiyuan may face stricter scrutiny from investors and the market in terms of its sustainable performance growth.</li>
<li>It’s not easy for Xiaocaiyuan to find new growth points. Catering companies commonly face problems such as performance fluctuations and uncertain profitability, which has left their share price underperforming.</li>
<li>Post investment valuation has already reached RMB10 billion, which far exceeds the market value of A-share peers. Due to concerns on the outlook, valuation performance after IPO could be lower-than-expected.</li>
</ul>


The financial data for 2024 has already shown investors weak growth signal.After IPO, Xiaocaiyuan may face stricter scrutiny from investors and the market in terms of its sustainable performance growth.
It’s not easy for Xiaocaiyuan to find new growth points. Catering companies commonly face problems such as performance fluctuations and uncertain profitability, which has left their share price underperforming.
Post investment valuation has already reached RMB10 billion, which far exceeds the market value of A-share peers. Due to concerns on the outlook, valuation performance after IPO could be lower-than-expected.


Pre-IPO Xiaocaiyuan International Holding (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

<ul>
<li>As Hong Kong market continues to consolidate, the consumer discretionary sector is leading in momentum and strength while the energy and materials sectors lag.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com Group (9961 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:180:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (TCOM US)</a> received BUY ratings after a strong 3Q24 announcement on revenue and earnings.  China's tourist numbers are projected to reach Pre-COVID levels soon.
</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yum-china-holdings-inc-0533692c-6dae-4014-baa1-ed0b050638f2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29259:1" rel="noopener">Yum China Holdings (9987 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yum-china-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23677:1" rel="noopener">Yum China Holdings (YUMC US)</a> received BUY ratings after initial success from its small store/franchising strategy.  The company is actively returning capital to shareholders.</li>
</ul>


As Hong Kong market continues to consolidate, the consumer discretionary sector is leading in momentum and strength while the energy and materials sectors lag.

Trip.com Group (9961 HK) , Trip.com (TCOM US) received BUY ratings after a strong 3Q24 announcement on revenue and earnings.  China's tourist numbers are projected to reach Pre-COVID levels soon.

Yum China Holdings (9987 HK) , Yum China Holdings (YUMC US) received BUY ratings after initial success from its small store/franchising strategy.  The company is actively returning capital to shareholders.


BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (NOVEMBER 29)

China

Jiumaojiu International manages and operates a portfolio of Chinese cuisine restaurant brands, including Tai Er (known for sauerkraut fish), Song Hot Pot, and Jiu Mao Jiu (offering family-oriented food). The company also engages in food processing, central kitchen operations, and delivery services. It was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, People's Republic of China.

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Jiumaojiu International (9922 HK)

Tam Jai Intl (2217 HK): Is It Privatisation or Takeover?

Tam Jai Intl's suspension sparks privatisation or takeover speculations, given its high net cash and simple ownership structure. However, a...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Guming Holdings (1364 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights

Our valuation analysis suggests that Guming is attractively valued at the IPO price range. Pricing is on 10 February, and the shares will be listed...

Arun George

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Dec 13th): Alibaba, CCB, China Mobile, ICBC, Byd Electronic (International)

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Alibaba, CCB, China Mobile, ICBC, Byd Electronic...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Pre-IPO Xiaocaiyuan International Holding (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

Investors wary of Xiaocaiyuan's weak growth signal post-IPO, facing scrutiny over sustainability and struggle to find new growth points.Valuation...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (NOVEMBER 29)

Hong Kong and China markets are outperforming their Asian peers this year. Trip.com announced strong results as China's tourism industry...

David Mudd

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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Tam Jai Intl (2217 HK): Is It Privatisation or Takeover?

​Tam Jai Intl's suspension sparks privatisation or takeover speculations, given its high net cash and simple ownership structure. However, a...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Guming Holdings (1364 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights

Our valuation analysis suggests that Guming is attractively valued at the IPO price range. Pricing is on 10 February, and the shares will be listed...

Arun George

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Dec 13th): Alibaba, CCB, China Mobile, ICBC, Byd Electronic (International)

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Alibaba, CCB, China Mobile, ICBC, Byd Electronic...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Pre-IPO Xiaocaiyuan International Holding (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

​Investors wary of Xiaocaiyuan's weak growth signal post-IPO, facing scrutiny over sustainability and struggle to find new growth points.Valuation...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (NOVEMBER 29)

Hong Kong and China markets are outperforming their Asian peers this year. Trip.com announced strong results as China's tourism industry...

David Mudd

Tam Jai Intl's suspension sparks privatisation or takeover speculations, given its high net cash and simple ownership structure. However, a...

Investors wary of Xiaocaiyuan's weak growth signal post-IPO, facing scrutiny over sustainability and struggle to find new growth points.Valuation...