Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a> buyback risk that might cause <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a>/JPB unwinds; though probably a H2 risk.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-eastern-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13993:1" rel="noopener">Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP)</a> has consistently traded through <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oversea-chinese-banking-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:114:1" rel="noopener">OCBC (OCBC SP)</a>'s Offer terms. Someone appears to be accumulating a stake to block an Exit/Delisting Offer, and force a bump.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/l-occitane-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6772:1" rel="noopener">L'Occitane (973 HK)</a>'s scrip pre-condition has been satisfied. But still the Offeror prevaricates. </li>
</ul>


There is Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) buyback risk that might cause Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)/JPB unwinds; though probably a H2 risk.

Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP) has consistently traded through OCBC (OCBC SP)'s Offer terms. Someone appears to be accumulating a stake to block an Exit/Delisting Offer, and force a bump.

L'Occitane (973 HK)'s scrip pre-condition has been satisfied. But still the Offeror prevaricates. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post, Great Eastern, Malaysia Airports, L'Occitane

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>On 12 May, The Times reported that Sidara was planning to make a higher bid for Wood after its initial offer was turned down by the company last week.</li>
<li>This proposal was unsolicited and conditional. Premium is 30%, implied equity value £1,418 million (c.$1.775 million), implied EV £2,508 million; 5.3x EV/Fwd NTM EBITDA. Sidara recognizes value.</li>
<li>Shares are trading at a lower spread than at the time of Apollo's 240p proposal. Nevertheless, without a significant sweetening, the likelihood of a deal seems relatively low.</li>
</ul>


On 12 May, The Times reported that Sidara was planning to make a higher bid for Wood after its initial offer was turned down by the company last week.
This proposal was unsolicited and conditional. Premium is 30%, implied equity value £1,418 million (c.$1.775 million), implied EV £2,508 million; 5.3x EV/Fwd NTM EBITDA. Sidara recognizes value.
Shares are trading at a lower spread than at the time of Apollo's 240p proposal. Nevertheless, without a significant sweetening, the likelihood of a deal seems relatively low.


Sidara/John Wood: Awaiting a Sweetened Offer

<ul>
<li>"Feedback" from shareholders overturned numantine resistance from the Board of Wood, which has reluctantly decided to grant due diligence access to Apollo. New PUSU deadline is 17 May.</li>
<li>As top shareholder of Vallourec, Apollo knows the sector. At the 240p offer proposal, Wood would be valued at an undemanding 5.7x EV/Fwd EBITDA on consensus numbers. </li>
<li>My fair value estimate is 261.7p (average of SOTP-multiples and DCF). There is value in the sector and Apollo may have turned a corner. Long.</li>
</ul>


"Feedback" from shareholders overturned numantine resistance from the Board of Wood, which has reluctantly decided to grant due diligence access to Apollo. New PUSU deadline is 17 May.
As top shareholder of Vallourec, Apollo knows the sector. At the 240p offer proposal, Wood would be valued at an undemanding 5.7x EV/Fwd EBITDA on consensus numbers. 
My fair value estimate is 261.7p (average of SOTP-multiples and DCF). There is value in the sector and Apollo may have turned a corner. Long.


Apollo/John Wood Group: Due Diligence Access

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run up to the June 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>Based on latest prices, there could be one change for F100 and four changes in F250 between now and the June 2023 Rebalance including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/al-noor-hospitals-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21813:1" rel="noopener">Mediclinic International (MDC LN)</a>'s intra-review change. </li>
<li>Many of the high-ranked F250 potential additions could have very high impact according to our estimates.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run up to the June 2023 Rebalance.
Based on latest prices, there could be one change for F100 and four changes in F250 between now and the June 2023 Rebalance including Mediclinic International (MDC LN)'s intra-review change. 
Many of the high-ranked F250 potential additions could have very high impact according to our estimates.


Quiddity Leaderboard for UK F100/​​250 June 23: 20+ Days to Buy for Top-Ranked F250 Potential ADDs

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Hyundai Engineering   / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-engineering-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33008:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Engineering Co Ltd (HEC KS)</a> has launched its IPO to raise US$0.8-1.0 billion at the price range of KRW57,900-75,700 per share.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hyundai-engineering-ipo-initiation-building-on-good-foundations" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:63360" rel="noopener">Hyundai Engineering IPO Initiation: Building on Good Foundations</a>, we stated that HEC has attractive fundamentals with a strong backlog, healthy book-to-bill, improving 3Q21 revenue growth and improving margins. </li>
<li>In this note, we look at the syndicate's valuation methodology and present our valuation methodology. Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is unattractive. </li>
</ul>



Hyundai Engineering Co Ltd (HEC KS) has launched its IPO to raise US$0.8-1.0 billion at the price range of KRW57,900-75,700 per share.
In Hyundai Engineering IPO Initiation: Building on Good Foundations, we stated that HEC has attractive fundamentals with a strong backlog, healthy book-to-bill, improving 3Q21 revenue growth and improving margins. 
In this note, we look at the syndicate's valuation methodology and present our valuation methodology. Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is unattractive. 


Hyundai Engineering IPO: Valuation Insights

United Kingdom

Wood is a British multinational engineering and consulting company that provides project management and technical services for energy and industrial markets. The company offers solutions in areas such as decarbonization, digitalization, asset optimization, and clean energy. Wood is headquartered in Aberdeen, Scotland, and was founded in 1961.

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Wood (WG/ LN)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post, Great Eastern, Malaysia Airports, L'Occitane

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Sidara/John Wood: Awaiting a Sweetened Offer

Sidara plans higher bid for Wood after initial offer rejected by company, recognizing value but likelihood of deal remains low without significant...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Apollo/John Wood Group: Due Diligence Access

"Feedback" from shareholders overturned numantine resistance from the Board of Wood, which has reluctantly decided to grant due diligence access to...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Quiddity Leaderboard for UK F100/250 June 23: 20+ Days to Buy for Top-Ranked F250 Potential ADDs

On average, there could be around 20 days of volume to buy for the top four F250 potential ADDs according to our estimates and I see a decent...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Hyundai Engineering IPO: Valuation Insights

HEC has launched its IPO to raise US$0.8-1.0 bn. Our valuation analysis suggests that HEC is fairly valued at the low end of the IPO price range....

Arun George

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Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post, Great Eastern, Malaysia Airports, L'Occitane

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Sidara/John Wood: Awaiting a Sweetened Offer

​Sidara plans higher bid for Wood after initial offer rejected by company, recognizing value but likelihood of deal remains low without significant...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Apollo/John Wood Group: Due Diligence Access

"Feedback" from shareholders overturned numantine resistance from the Board of Wood, which has reluctantly decided to grant due diligence access to...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Quiddity Leaderboard for UK F100/​​250 June 23: 20+ Days to Buy for Top-Ranked F250 Potential ADDs

On average, there could be around 20 days of volume to buy for the top four F250 potential ADDs according to our estimates and I see a decent...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Hyundai Engineering IPO: Valuation Insights

HEC has launched its IPO to raise US$0.8-1.0 bn. Our valuation analysis suggests that HEC is fairly valued at the low end of the IPO price range....

Arun George

Sidara plans higher bid for Wood after initial offer rejected by company, recognizing value but likelihood of deal remains low without significant...

Quiddity Leaderboard for UK F100/250 June 23: 20+ Days to Buy for Top-Ranked F250 Potential ADDs