Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In principle, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jafco-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8848:1" rel="noopener">Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP)</a> still wants to be greenmailed to get Murakami-san out. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-cycle-carriage-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)</a>i is expensive here - relative to historical values -  and from an implied stub perspective. And the MSCI inclusion event has now passed.</li>
<li>If you think this is a "risk", then you want to be long when the discount is wide and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> is monetising assets in some way. </li>
</ul>


In principle, Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP) still wants to be greenmailed to get Murakami-san out. 

Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)i is expensive here - relative to historical values -  and from an implied stub perspective. And the MSCI inclusion event has now passed.
If you think this is a "risk", then you want to be long when the discount is wide and Softbank Group (9984 JP) is monetising assets in some way. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: JAFCO, Jardine Cycle, Softbank, Star Health

China Traditional Chinese Medicine / Event-Driven

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)

<ul>
<li>There are 45 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xingda-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17836:1" rel="noopener">Xingda International (1899 HK)</a>'s partial MBO.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitro-software-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30943:1" rel="noopener">Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chip-eng-seng-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6441:1" rel="noopener">Chip Eng Seng Corp (CHIP SP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 45 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma: Xingda International (1899 HK)'s partial MBO.
Key updates took place for: Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU) , Chip Eng Seng Corp (CHIP SP) and China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Xingda, Nitro, Chip Eng Seng, Traditional Chinese Medicine

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Screening US-listed China plays with negative EV and positive tailing EBITDA generates eight names. </li>
<li>Of these companies, only two are expected to be EBITDA positive in FY22. </li>
<li>They are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/joyy-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:285:1" rel="noopener">JOYY (YY US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sohu-com-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22853:1" rel="noopener">Sohu.com (SOHU US)</a>. This insight looks at both names. </li>
</ul>


Screening US-listed China plays with negative EV and positive tailing EBITDA generates eight names. 
Of these companies, only two are expected to be EBITDA positive in FY22. 
They are JOYY (YY US) and Sohu.com (SOHU US). This insight looks at both names. 


Negative EVs: JOYY & Sohu's Steep Discount To Net Cash

<ul>
<li>There are 48 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Two new deals were discussed on Smartkarma: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bigtincan-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29067:1" rel="noopener">Bigtincan Holdings Ltd (BTH AU)</a>'s low-balled Offer; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carbon-revolution-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29071:1" rel="noopener">Carbon Revolution Ltd (CBR AU)</a>'s desperate SPAC takeover.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/warrego-energy-ltd-082ab214-f4bb-4224-b321-8977486cd661" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7808:1" rel="noopener">Warrego Energy (WGO AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1176:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Construction (1890 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-transport-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2395:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Transport System (9086 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 48 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Two new deals were discussed on Smartkarma: Bigtincan Holdings Ltd (BTH AU)'s low-balled Offer; Carbon Revolution Ltd (CBR AU)'s desperate SPAC takeover.
Key updates took place for: Warrego Energy (WGO AU), Toyo Construction (1890 JP), and Hitachi Transport System (9086 JP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Bigtincan, Carbon Revolution, Warrego, Toyo, Hitachi T'sport

<ul>
<li>For the month of November, 11 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$20bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in November was ~52%, and a year-to-date average of 41%.</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 33%, 31%, and 31.5% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of November, 11 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$20bn.
The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in November was ~52%, and a year-to-date average of 41%.
This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 33%, 31%, and 31.5% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A Nov 2022 Roundup: Origin, Perpetual, Mori Trust, Uzabase, Chip Eng, Golden Energy

China

JOYY Inc. operates a global social media platform. The Company offers platform which enables users to interact with each other in real time through online live media by creating, sharing, and enjoying a vast range of entertainment content and activities. JOYY serves customers in China.

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JOYY (YY US)

Last Week in Event SPACE: JAFCO, Jardine Cycle, Softbank, Star Health

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Xingda, Nitro, Chip Eng Seng, Traditional Chinese Medicine

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Negative EVs: JOYY & Sohu's Steep Discount To Net Cash

I'd tilt slightly towards Sohu. It did successfully sell Sogou; whereas Joyy failed to sell YY live. That may provide some insight as to how the...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Bigtincan, Carbon Revolution, Warrego, Toyo, Hitachi T'sport

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia M&A Nov 2022 Roundup: Origin, Perpetual, Mori Trust, Uzabase, Chip Eng, Golden Energy

For the month of November, 11 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$20bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

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