Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Welcome to our weekly “The Week At A Glance” publication, where we explore the most important key figure releases and tradeable themes for the upcoming week.</li>
<li>We remain almost exclusively long on USD fixed income, and therefore, our attention is particularly focused on two key developments this week:</li>
<li>The Jackson Hole Conference and Ueda’s Appearance in the Japanese Parliament. Revisions to U.S. Employment Data: The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release first-quarter 2024 data from the QCEW on August 21, 2024, at 10:00 a.m. (ET).</li>
</ul>


Welcome to our weekly “The Week At A Glance” publication, where we explore the most important key figure releases and tradeable themes for the upcoming week.
We remain almost exclusively long on USD fixed income, and therefore, our attention is particularly focused on two key developments this week:
The Jackson Hole Conference and Ueda’s Appearance in the Japanese Parliament. Revisions to U.S. Employment Data: The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release first-quarter 2024 data from the QCEW on August 21, 2024, at 10:00 a.m. (ET).


The Week at a Glance: The USD in the (Jackson) Hole amidst Over 1 Million Jobs Disappearing?

<ul><li>As most of you know, we remained upbeat on the cycle until around mid-July, as growth parameters continued to perform solidly in real-time, while inflation also posed a risk of re-acceleration.</li><li>Our real-time tracking of the three main macro parameters is the cornerstone of our macro thinking, and through July and August, we have begun to observe a significant shift.</li><li>The risk of rising inflation has collapsed, while growth momentum has also weakened substantially.</li></ul>

As most of you know, we remained upbeat on the cycle until around mid-July, as growth parameters continued to perform solidly in real-time, while inflation also posed a risk of re-acceleration.Our real-time tracking of the three main macro parameters is the cornerstone of our macro thinking, and through July and August, we have begun to observe a significant shift.The risk of rising inflation has collapsed, while growth momentum has also weakened substantially.

Steno Signals #113 – Neither Inflation, Growth, Nor Liquidity is rising right now

Podcast from BlackRock, The Bid

The Bid

Podcast from BlackRock

The Bid breaks down what’s happening in the world of investing and explores the forces changing the economy and finance. From stock market outlooks and megatrends to geopolitics and technology, BlackRock speaks to thought leaders and industry experts from around the globe about the biggest trends moving markets.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Japan peaked in 1989, but then experienced decades of underperformance and false dawns in terms of economic growth and stock market valuations</li><li>Recent changes in Japan, including increased inflation, wage growth, and more shareholder-friendly behavior from corporations, are leading to renewed optimism for investors</li><li>Japan's history of stagnation and deflation created risk-averse investors, but recent policies and efforts are turning the economy around, making it an exciting investment opportunity</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Japan peaked in 1989, but then experienced decades of underperformance and false dawns in terms of economic growth and stock market valuationsRecent changes in Japan, including increased inflation, wage growth, and more shareholder-friendly behavior from corporations, are leading to renewed optimism for investorsJapan's history of stagnation and deflation created risk-averse investors, but recent policies and efforts are turning the economy around, making it an exciting investment opportunityThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Best Of: Is Japan At An Inflection Point?

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>CPI dropped to 2.9% YoY in July, the lowest since March 2021, while Core CPI cooled to 3.2% YoY, reflecting a broad-based softening in inflation.</li>
<li>Retail sales surged 1% MoM, driven by a volatile 3.6% rise in motor vehicle sales, signaling resilient consumer spending despite mixed economic conditions.</li>
<li>Manufacturing and industrial production contracted, pushing the GDPNow forecast down to 2.4%, highlighting persistent weakness in these sectors.</li>
</ul>


CPI dropped to 2.9% YoY in July, the lowest since March 2021, while Core CPI cooled to 3.2% YoY, reflecting a broad-based softening in inflation.
Retail sales surged 1% MoM, driven by a volatile 3.6% rise in motor vehicle sales, signaling resilient consumer spending despite mixed economic conditions.
Manufacturing and industrial production contracted, pushing the GDPNow forecast down to 2.4%, highlighting persistent weakness in these sectors.


Mint Macro Roundup: U.S. Inflation Dips Below 3% Amid Stronger Retail Sales

<ul><li>This week likely marks the end of the positioning squaring phase, as multiple positioning gauges now signal that trades are no longer as extended as they were 2-3 weeks ago across various assets.</li><li>This shift provides an opportunity to revisit our strategies and assess where macroeconomic trends might be steering global assets next, now that the worst of speculative activity has subsided.</li><li>As we all know, the CFTC report is always a week behind in updating markets on positioning, making last Friday’s report particularly interesting.</li></ul>

This week likely marks the end of the positioning squaring phase, as multiple positioning gauges now signal that trades are no longer as extended as they were 2-3 weeks ago across various assets.This shift provides an opportunity to revisit our strategies and assess where macroeconomic trends might be steering global assets next, now that the worst of speculative activity has subsided.As we all know, the CFTC report is always a week behind in updating markets on positioning, making last Friday’s report particularly interesting.

Positioning Watch – Positioning Squaring in JPY is Complete

Japan

The Japanese yen is the official currency of Japan. 

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The Week at a Glance: The USD in the (Jackson) Hole amidst Over 1 Million Jobs Disappearing?

Welcome to our weekly “The Week At A Glance” publication, where we explore the most important key figure releases and tradeable themes for the...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #113 – Neither Inflation, Growth, Nor Liquidity is rising right now

As most of you know, we remained upbeat on the cycle until around mid-July, as growth parameters continued to perform solidly in real-time, while...

Steno Research

Best Of: Is Japan At An Inflection Point?

The Japanese stock market peaked in December 1989 at 45% of the world's market capitalization, but experienced two decades of low growth and...

The Bid

Mint Macro Roundup: U.S. Inflation Dips Below 3% Amid Stronger Retail Sales

U.S. inflation fell below 3% for the first time in over three years. Despite mixed signals from the manufacturing sector, retail sales showed...

Mint Finance

Positioning Watch – Positioning Squaring in JPY is Complete

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning update. This week likely marks the end of the positioning squaring phase, as multiple...

Steno Research

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