Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.</li><li>The debates about whether the US is heading for a recession are still touring the charts, as the labor market and other economic data soften back towards pre-pandemic levels.</li><li>However, while some might be uncomfortable watching the US economy slow more than anticipated, the lack of ringing alarm bells and Powell’s recent victory lap on inflation have greenlighted markets to price in a soft landing as a 95-99% probability event by now when looking across positioning data.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.The debates about whether the US is heading for a recession are still touring the charts, as the labor market and other economic data soften back towards pre-pandemic levels.However, while some might be uncomfortable watching the US economy slow more than anticipated, the lack of ringing alarm bells and Powell’s recent victory lap on inflation have greenlighted markets to price in a soft landing as a 95-99% probability event by now when looking across positioning data.

Positioning Watch – The Soft Landing Is Moving Towards a Recovery Trade

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Morning from Europe! Remember that we release our “Week at a glance” publication instead of the “Something for your Espresso” every Monday before lunch-time.</li><li>Our aim is to digest the release calendar in an actionable way and assess the risk/reward around the macro themes in the context of the economic release calendar.</li><li>This week, we will focus on the US consumer (Retail Sales), UK inflation (CPI) and the EUR rates (ECB meeting).</li></ul>

Morning from Europe! Remember that we release our “Week at a glance” publication instead of the “Something for your Espresso” every Monday before lunch-time.Our aim is to digest the release calendar in an actionable way and assess the risk/reward around the macro themes in the context of the economic release calendar.This week, we will focus on the US consumer (Retail Sales), UK inflation (CPI) and the EUR rates (ECB meeting).

The Week At A Glance: Another inflation shocker in the UK paired with a rebound in US retail sales?

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>MoF intervention in Japan estimated at 3.5 trillion yen, impacting yen price action</li><li>Discussion on GPIF's asset allocation and potential repatriation flows</li><li>Expectation for increase in domestic bond weight in GPIF's portfolio, impacting yen strength</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

MoF intervention in Japan estimated at 3.5 trillion yen, impacting yen price actionDiscussion on GPIF's asset allocation and potential repatriation flowsExpectation for increase in domestic bond weight in GPIF's portfolio, impacting yen strengthThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX: On Japan Intervention/ GPIF, Dollar Supports and European Data

<ul><li>The inflation report provides a surprisingly soft set of data, aligning perfectly with the FOMC’s hopes, but not with their predictions.</li><li>Back in June, the FOMC projected only one rate cut while hiking the inflation forecast to levels that now seem feasible to undershoot.</li><li>This report, as soft as it gets, shows transportation services down by 0.5% for the month, and shelter prices have only increased by 0.17% MoM.</li></ul>

The inflation report provides a surprisingly soft set of data, aligning perfectly with the FOMC’s hopes, but not with their predictions.Back in June, the FOMC projected only one rate cut while hiking the inflation forecast to levels that now seem feasible to undershoot.This report, as soft as it gets, shows transportation services down by 0.5% for the month, and shelter prices have only increased by 0.17% MoM.

CPI Review: Gung Ho summer! Risk-off fall?

<ul><li>While we are waiting for Godot and US inflation, we have examined the liquidity outlook for the remainder of the year.</li><li>The important part of the analysis is to understand why liquidity is moving, not just if it is moving.</li><li>Depending on the type of liquidity additions/withdrawals, the quality of the liquidity signal improves/worsens as a driver of asset markets. </li></ul>

While we are waiting for Godot and US inflation, we have examined the liquidity outlook for the remainder of the year.The important part of the analysis is to understand why liquidity is moving, not just if it is moving.Depending on the type of liquidity additions/withdrawals, the quality of the liquidity signal improves/worsens as a driver of asset markets. 

Liquidity watch: Two major waves of liquidity left this year of varying quality

Japan

The Japanese yen is the official currency of Japan. 

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Positioning Watch – The Soft Landing Is Moving Towards a Recovery Trade

Overall positioning and sentiment indicators are starting to diverge, though. Most indicators show continued support for risk assets in H2.

Steno Research

The Week At A Glance: Another inflation shocker in the UK paired with a rebound in US retail sales?

Morning from Europe! Remember that we release our “Week at a glance” publication instead of the “Something for your Espresso” every Monday before...

Steno Research

Global FX: On Japan Intervention/ GPIF, Dollar Supports and European Data

The Ministry of Finance intervened in the yen market, leading to significant capital outflows from Japan and potential repatriation flows due to...

At Any Rate

CPI Review: Gung Ho summer! Risk-off fall?

The inflation report provides a surprisingly soft set of data, aligning perfectly with the FOMC’s hopes, but not with their predictions. Back in...

Steno Research

Liquidity watch: Two major waves of liquidity left this year of varying quality

While we are waiting for Godot and US inflation, we have examined the liquidity outlook for the remainder of the year. I have had numerous...

Steno Research

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