Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Major top and short call at USD/JPY 114 and flash decline did have a direct impact on a risk assets and the Nikkei in line with our S&amp;P and Nikkei short calls. The second phase of USD/JPY weakness will usher in the next downturn in risk assets in late Q1 after some tactical posturing. We do view SPX 2,600 as a good level to re cycle shorts with some range work in store for February.High degree divergence is still not fully unwound and implies the USD/JPY is set for a new low and part of phase II of the pain trade. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-s-crowded-long-faces-exodus-pressure" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:26105">Japan's Crowded Long Faces Exodus Pressure</a> . <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-bank-index-bearish-head-and-shoulders" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:27087">Japan Bank Index Bearish Head and Shoulders</a> .JPY crosses versus the AUD, GBP and Euro are currently nudging up against key resistance points that represent an interesting pivot point to stage a fresh decline (good risk aversion barometers).We are seeing the knock on effect in Asian FX.USD/JPY will surpass our original downside target of 108-109.

Major top and short call at USD/JPY 114 and flash decline did have a direct impact on a risk assets and the Nikkei in line with our S&amp;P and Nikkei short calls. The second phase of USD/JPY weakness will usher in the next downturn in risk assets in late Q1 after some tactical posturing. We do view SPX 2,600 as a good level to re cycle shorts with some range work in store for February.High degree divergence is still not fully unwound and implies the USD/JPY is set for a new low and part of phase II of the pain trade. Japan's Crowded Long Faces Exodus Pressure . Japan Bank Index Bearish Head and Shoulders .JPY crosses versus the AUD, GBP and Euro are currently nudging up against key resistance points that represent an interesting pivot point to stage a fresh decline (good risk aversion barometers).We are seeing the knock on effect in Asian FX.USD/JPY will surpass our original downside target of 108-109.

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

The Fed has displayed a lack of flexibility and is generating market fears that it will make a policy mistake.  The pundits continue to applaud Powell, but the markets have delivered a thumbs down; the US yield curve has inverted from 1 to 5 years, the US equity market has had its biggest correction since the global financial crisis, market-based inflation expectations have fallen significantly, and the USD is stalling notwithstanding higher rates and global growth risks.

The Fed has displayed a lack of flexibility and is generating market fears that it will make a policy mistake.  The pundits continue to applaud Powell, but the markets have delivered a thumbs down; the US yield curve has inverted from 1 to 5 years, the US equity market has had its biggest correction since the global financial crisis, market-based inflation expectations have fallen significantly, and the USD is stalling notwithstanding higher rates and global growth risks. 

We see increasing evidence of a failed December risk on phase as core sectors break below supports and early 2018 lows in a lead fashion.Our underperform/bear call for banks, small caps, tech and transports to lead a bigger market spiral is taking shape. Small caps, banks and transports are now breaking early 2018 lows, signaling a broader S&amp;P break below 2,600 may in fact be unfolding now rather than in January/Q1.Fed speak will dominate a break/bounce next week but a break down is in the cards, regardless in 2019.Breadth remains bearish.USD/JPY teetering on a pattern breakout. Gold is not trading well given it has decoupled from traditional correlations.Big net outflows recorded in key sectors/markets last week.

We see increasing evidence of a failed December risk on phase as core sectors break below supports and early 2018 lows in a lead fashion.Our underperform/bear call for banks, small caps, tech and transports to lead a bigger market spiral is taking shape. Small caps, banks and transports are now breaking early 2018 lows, signaling a broader S&amp;P break below 2,600 may in fact be unfolding now rather than in January/Q1.Fed speak will dominate a break/bounce next week but a break down is in the cards, regardless in 2019.Breadth remains bearish.USD/JPY teetering on a pattern breakout. Gold is not trading well given it has decoupled from traditional correlations.Big net outflows recorded in key sectors/markets last week.

Core US Sectors Leading an S&P Major Support Break

We are playing any surprise bounce via Shanghai A 50 futures and the HSCE.RIO tactical bounce trade presented.Duration defensive long set ups outlined with stops and rally targets in China Mobile and SK Telecom.KLSE bear triangle second trade in the making for a press toward 1,620/15.In Europe, Italy is lagging the break down and a prime short candidate for a break below triple lows/out of flat congestion.S&amp;P tactical break points outlined with a bounce set up in the DJI. Base case view is to short a bounce.Higher conviction pivot levels for a USD/JPY short are laid out with action turn levels and risk points.

We are playing any surprise bounce via Shanghai A 50 futures and the HSCE.RIO tactical bounce trade presented.Duration defensive long set ups outlined with stops and rally targets in China Mobile and SK Telecom.KLSE bear triangle second trade in the making for a press toward 1,620/15.In Europe, Italy is lagging the break down and a prime short candidate for a break below triple lows/out of flat congestion.S&amp;P tactical break points outlined with a bounce set up in the DJI. Base case view is to short a bounce.Higher conviction pivot levels for a USD/JPY short are laid out with action turn levels and risk points.

China Mobile and SK Telecom Defensive Plays and Top Trade Set Ups

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

Yield peak touted near 3.26% and move back below 3% shows increasing risk of a downside surprise that will catch the market off guard.Short treasury/long yield pain trade with ripples into our USD cycle peak call. Our thesis for a September yield peak stemmed from expected slowing US growth, Feb pause in the rate cycle and a risk aversion safe haven given our US equity bearish stance. Macro degree bearish weekly MACD warns of a downside surprise that will give back the bulk of yield gains from early 2017.Macro unwind in over crowded positions in short treasuries, long USD, long USD/JPY and long Nikkei.See <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-s-crowded-long-faces-exodus-pressure" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:26105">Japan's Crowded Long Faces Exodus Pressure</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/dollar-yen-big-short-inflection-level-and-targets" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:25851">Dollar Yen BIG Short/Inflection Level and Targets</a> . <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/usd-shorts-on-dxy-97-peak" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:25713">USD Shorts on DXY 97 Peak</a> .

Yield peak touted near 3.26% and move back below 3% shows increasing risk of a downside surprise that will catch the market off guard.Short treasury/long yield pain trade with ripples into our USD cycle peak call. Our thesis for a September yield peak stemmed from expected slowing US growth, Feb pause in the rate cycle and a risk aversion safe haven given our US equity bearish stance. Macro degree bearish weekly MACD warns of a downside surprise that will give back the bulk of yield gains from early 2017.Macro unwind in over crowded positions in short treasuries, long USD, long USD/JPY and long Nikkei.See Japan's Crowded Long Faces Exodus Pressure , Dollar Yen BIG Short/Inflection Level and Targets . USD Shorts on DXY 97 Peak .

10yr Pain Trade - Yields to Plunge to 2.40%

Japan

The Japanese yen is the official currency of Japan. 

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

JPY (USDJPY CURNCY)

Dollar Yen BIG Short Phase II

Major top and short call at USD/JPY 114 and flash decline did have a direct impact on a risk assets and the Nikkei in line with our S&P and...

Thomas Schroeder

The Market Gives Powell a Thumbs Down

The Fed has displayed a lack of flexibility and is generating market fears that it will make a policy mistake. The pundits continue to applaud...

Greg Gibbs

Core US Sectors Leading an S&P Major Support Break

We see increasing evidence of a failed December risk on phase as core sectors break below supports and early 2018 lows in a lead fashion.Our...

Thomas Schroeder

China Mobile and SK Telecom Defensive Plays and Top Trade Set Ups

We are playing any surprise bounce via Shanghai A 50 futures and the HSCE.RIO tactical bounce trade presented.Duration defensive long set ups...

Thomas Schroeder

10yr Pain Trade - Yields to Plunge to 2.40%

Yield peak touted near 3.26% and move back below 3% shows increasing risk of a downside surprise that will catch the market off guard.Short...

Thomas Schroeder

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)