HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The YTD rally in the Hong Kong and China markets has made it appealing for highly leveraged and outperforming stocks to make placements to raise fresh equity.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gds-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32157:1" rel="noopener">GDS Holdings (9698 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-youran-dairy-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31075:1" rel="noopener">China Youran Dairy Group (9858 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-gold-mining-co-ltd-4527fb98-bb5d-4d74-91fe-66f9c0224eb3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27455:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Gold Mining (1787 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhaojin-mining-industry-company-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4626:1" rel="noopener">Zhaojin Mining Industry (1818 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-electronic-international-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1927:1" rel="noopener">BYD Electronics (285 HK)</a> are possible candidates.</li>
<li>Four of the top 30 YTD best-performing Hang Seng Composite stocks have made placements in the last three months, raising a total of HK$1.3bn with mixed performance since then.</li>
</ul>


The YTD rally in the Hong Kong and China markets has made it appealing for highly leveraged and outperforming stocks to make placements to raise fresh equity.

GDS Holdings (9698 HK), China Youran Dairy Group (9858 HK), Shandong Gold Mining (1787 HK), Zhaojin Mining Industry (1818 HK), and BYD Electronics (285 HK) are possible candidates.
Four of the top 30 YTD best-performing Hang Seng Composite stocks have made placements in the last three months, raising a total of HK$1.3bn with mixed performance since then.


China & HK Strategy: Assessing Placement Risks, Who Needs Money?

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>While <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vesync" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31067:1" rel="noopener">Vesync (2148 HK)</a>'s net profit grew 20.1% in FY24, there is a marked slowdown in 2H24 (+7.4%) vs. 1H24 (+37.5%), suggesting increased operating pressure. </li>
<li>North American sales slowed to 10.7% growth in 2H24, from 13% in 1H24. The deteriorating financial and operating performance affirmed that privatisation is an exit opportunity.</li>
<li>Its PER discount (on privatiation price) to peers has widened to 35-38%, compared with 25-30% in Dec. Its US exposure makes it unable to reap benefits from China market stimulus.</li>
</ul>


While Vesync (2148 HK)'s net profit grew 20.1% in FY24, there is a marked slowdown in 2H24 (+7.4%) vs. 1H24 (+37.5%), suggesting increased operating pressure. 
North American sales slowed to 10.7% growth in 2H24, from 13% in 1H24. The deteriorating financial and operating performance affirmed that privatisation is an exit opportunity.
Its PER discount (on privatiation price) to peers has widened to 35-38%, compared with 25-30% in Dec. Its US exposure makes it unable to reap benefits from China market stimulus.


Vesync (2148 HK): What Did the FY24 Results Tell?

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-dongxiang-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1068:1" rel="noopener">China Dongxiang (3818 HK)</a>'s share price change has not sufficiently reflected <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>'s movement. Their share price ratio is now at a historical low. </li>
<li>Its SOTP value increased by HK$927m with the surge in its PE, unlisted and fixed-income investment value, but its market capitalisation has gone up by just HK$258m.</li>
<li>Holdings in unlisted assets like Ant Financial and JD Technology (JD Digital) will benefit from the AI bonanza and the better sentiment in the HK IPO market.</li>
</ul>



China Dongxiang (3818 HK)'s share price change has not sufficiently reflected Alibaba Group (9988 HK)'s movement. Their share price ratio is now at a historical low. 
Its SOTP value increased by HK$927m with the surge in its PE, unlisted and fixed-income investment value, but its market capitalisation has gone up by just HK$258m.
Holdings in unlisted assets like Ant Financial and JD Technology (JD Digital) will benefit from the AI bonanza and the better sentiment in the HK IPO market.


China Dongxiang (3818 HK): More than Just BABA

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We highlight inflows into Tencent, SMIC, ICBC, China Mobile, Xiaomi and outflows from Meituan.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.
We highlight inflows into Tencent, SMIC, ICBC, China Mobile, Xiaomi and outflows from Meituan.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (January): $18.1bn Inflows

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 27 December 2024, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vesync" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31067:1" rel="noopener">Vesync (2148 HK)</a> disclosed a Cayman scheme privatisation offer from the Yang family at HK$5.60. On 28 January, the antitrust condition was satisfied.   </li>
<li>Despite a light offer, the scheme vote is low-risk. No disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake, there is a scrip option with no cap, and there is no retail opposition. </li>
<li>The scheme document will be despatched by 11 April. At the last close and for an end-of-May payment, the gross and annualised spread is 6.9% and 22.7%, respectively.  </li>
</ul>


On 27 December 2024, Vesync (2148 HK) disclosed a Cayman scheme privatisation offer from the Yang family at HK$5.60. On 28 January, the antitrust condition was satisfied.   
Despite a light offer, the scheme vote is low-risk. No disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake, there is a scrip option with no cap, and there is no retail opposition. 
The scheme document will be despatched by 11 April. At the last close and for an end-of-May payment, the gross and annualised spread is 6.9% and 22.7%, respectively.  


Vesync (2148 HK): Antitrust Condition Satisfied, and the Scheme Vote Remains Low-Risk

United States

JS Global Lifestyle Company Limited provides household appliances. The Company offers pressure and induction cookers, air fryers, countertop grills, upright and robotic  vacuums, water purifier, ventilator, thermos, and other related products. JS Global Lifestyle serves customers worldwide.

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JS Global Lifestyle (1691 HK)

China & HK Strategy: Assessing Placement Risks, Who Needs Money?

Zhaojin Mining Industry (1818 HK) is the first one in our top 5 list to make a placement. The company is placing 140m H-shares at HK$14.08 to raise...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Vesync (2148 HK): What Did the FY24 Results Tell?

Vesync's profit growth slows in 2H24, indicating increased operating pressure and affirming privatisation as an exit opportunity. Its non-China...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Dongxiang (3818 HK): More than Just BABA

CNDX's share price has not reflected BABA's, and the price ratio is at a historical low. The change in market cap has not kept pace with SOTP. Its...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Hong Kong Connect Flows (January): $18.1bn Inflows

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for January and highlighted flows for Tencent, SMIC, ICBC, China Mobile, Xiaomi and Meituan.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Vesync (2148 HK): Antitrust Condition Satisfied, and the Scheme Vote Remains Low-Risk

Despite a light offer, the scheme vote is low-risk. No disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake, there is a scrip option with no cap, and...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China & HK Strategy: Assessing Placement Risks, Who Needs Money?

Zhaojin Mining Industry (1818 HK) is the first one in our top 5 list to make a placement. The company is placing 140m H-shares at HK$14.08 to raise...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Vesync (2148 HK): What Did the FY24 Results Tell?

​Vesync's profit growth slows in 2H24, indicating increased operating pressure and affirming privatisation as an exit opportunity. Its non-China...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Dongxiang (3818 HK): More than Just BABA

​CNDX's share price has not reflected BABA's, and the price ratio is at a historical low. The change in market cap has not kept pace with SOTP. Its...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Hong Kong Connect Flows (January): $18.1bn Inflows

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for January and highlighted flows for Tencent, SMIC, ICBC, China Mobile, Xiaomi and Meituan.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Vesync (2148 HK): Antitrust Condition Satisfied, and the Scheme Vote Remains Low-Risk

Despite a light offer, the scheme vote is low-risk. No disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake, there is a scrip option with no cap, and...

Arun George

Vesync's profit growth slows in 2H24, indicating increased operating pressure and affirming privatisation as an exit opportunity. Its non-China...

CNDX's share price has not reflected BABA's, and the price ratio is at a historical low. The change in market cap has not kept pace with SOTP. Its...