IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Nikkei <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Business-deals/Japan-state-backed-fund-looks-to-buy-top-photoresist-maker-JSR" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reports</a> that Japan Investment Corporation (JIC) is in talks to acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a> for around JPY1 trillion (US$7 billion) through a tender offer.</li>
<li>JSR responded, "No decision has been made at this moment, although JSR is considering this matter.” The Board will discuss the proposal on Monday.</li>
<li>Minorities will be supportive as the JPY1 trillion valuation implies a tender price of JPY4,850 per share, a 50% premium to the last close and an all-time share price high.   </li>
</ul>


Nikkei reports that Japan Investment Corporation (JIC) is in talks to acquire JSR Corp (4185 JP) for around JPY1 trillion (US$7 billion) through a tender offer.
JSR responded, "No decision has been made at this moment, although JSR is considering this matter.” The Board will discuss the proposal on Monday.
Minorities will be supportive as the JPY1 trillion valuation implies a tender price of JPY4,850 per share, a 50% premium to the last close and an all-time share price high.   


JSR Corporation (4185 JP): JIC’s Tender Offer Looming?

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q1’23 revenues of ¥764 billion, up 15% YoY and 2.6% QoQ</li>
<li>FY2022, revenues grew by 13.2% to ¥2,859 while net income grew by 3.9% to ¥219.4.</li>
<li>Electronic Materials set to grow from ¥180 billion in '22 to ¥500 billion by '30</li>
</ul>


Q1’23 revenues of ¥764 billion, up 15% YoY and 2.6% QoQ
FY2022, revenues grew by 13.2% to ¥2,859 while net income grew by 3.9% to ¥219.4.
Electronic Materials set to grow from ¥180 billion in '22 to ¥500 billion by '30


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shin-etsu-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4481:1" rel="noopener">Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP)</a> reported Q1 earnings after the close on 27 July, and they blew the lights out. Higher margins and 10-year record high Q1 progression ratios.</li>
<li>The company also announced guidance which was pretty healthy, but progression ratios suggest it is conservative.</li>
<li>The company announced its second ¥100bn buyback in three months. This one lasts 6 months so impact will be lower, but it will have some impact.</li>
</ul>



Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP) reported Q1 earnings after the close on 27 July, and they blew the lights out. Higher margins and 10-year record high Q1 progression ratios.
The company also announced guidance which was pretty healthy, but progression ratios suggest it is conservative.
The company announced its second ¥100bn buyback in three months. This one lasts 6 months so impact will be lower, but it will have some impact.


Shin-Etsu Chemical (4063 JP) Salutary Earnings, Conservative Forecasts, and Another Buyback

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

JSR's share price has dropped back 12% from its recent 52-week high, providing investors with an opportunity to review the company's new technology acquisition and consider a long-term investment. JSR recently announced plans to make Inpria Corporation of the U.S. a nearly wholly-owned subsidiary. Inpria specializes in metal-oxide photoresists developed specifically for EUV lithography. EUV enables the production of leading-edge semiconductor products with 5-nm and smaller design rules.Until recently, semiconductor photoresists have been made from poIymers. Inpria is the first and so far the only photoresist maker in the world that uses inorganic materials. Its main product, which is composed primarily of tin oxide, has achieved the world's highest resolution using EUV exposure systems.Over the next 10 years, JSR expects the semiconductor photoresist market to roughly double in size, with demand for previous generation ArF photoresists rising at a CAGR of 9% and demand for EUV photoresists rising at a CAGR of 40% through 2026. By then, the leading-edge design rule should reach 1-nm.Inpria’s metal-oxide resists are also expected to meet the technical challenges beyond 1-nm toward the end of the decade. In terms of final product, this is part of the roadmap to autonomous vehicles, neuro-morphic devices and quantum computing. At 31x EPS guidance for FY Mar-21, the shares are not obviously cheap on a short-term basis, but guidance looks conservative.

JSR's share price has dropped back 12% from its recent 52-week high, providing investors with an opportunity to review the company's new technology acquisition and consider a long-term investment. JSR recently announced plans to make Inpria Corporation of the U.S. a nearly wholly-owned subsidiary. Inpria specializes in metal-oxide photoresists developed specifically for EUV lithography. EUV enables the production of leading-edge semiconductor products with 5-nm and smaller design rules.Until recently, semiconductor photoresists have been made from poIymers. Inpria is the first and so far the only photoresist maker in the world that uses inorganic materials. Its main product, which is composed primarily of tin oxide, has achieved the world's highest resolution using EUV exposure systems.Over the next 10 years, JSR expects the semiconductor photoresist market to roughly double in size, with demand for previous generation ArF photoresists rising at a CAGR of 9% and demand for EUV photoresists rising at a CAGR of 40% through 2026. By then, the leading-edge design rule should reach 1-nm.Inpria’s metal-oxide resists are also expected to meet the technical challenges beyond 1-nm toward the end of the decade. In terms of final product, this is part of the roadmap to autonomous vehicles, neuro-morphic devices and quantum computing. At 31x EPS guidance for FY Mar-21, the shares are not obviously cheap on a short-term basis, but guidance looks conservative.

JSR (4185 JP): Inpria Acquisition Lays Out 10-Year Photoresist Roadmap

When <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/showa-denko-k-k" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1496:1" rel="noopener">Showa Denko K.K. (4004 JP)</a> presented their H1 <a href="https://www.sdk.co.jp/assets/files/english/ir/library/pdf_presentation/results2021-2q.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">results</a> on 10 August 2021, and later held their analyst call, it seemed quite bullish. The company was a year ahead of its internal integration efforts after having purchased Hitachi Chemical (renaming it Showa Denko Materials) in a HUGE debt-financed deal in 2020. The company noted that all businesses were operating well and that residual negative numbers coming from restructuring costs and other weaknesses were simply a matter of time to overcome.The company showed an OP forecast which even it admitted was light, and for the year the forecast at ¥85bn remains significantly impacted by the amortisation of goodwill due to the purchase of the Hitachi Chemicals business (¥17.6bn this year). This is to say that OP would be 20% higher if Showa Denko had used US-GAAP or IFRS to account for the purchase of Hitachi Chem.Net Income forecasts out years from now are impacted by this cost to amortise the purchase goodwill. The call was interesting in that it talked about efforts to reduce interest-bearing debt, and also talked about aggressive investment measures. That probably should have been a hint. The shares fell hard from the 17th to the 20th as crude oil did too. <section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/227/837/original/Screenshot+2021-09-04+at+5.14.22+PM.png?1630746942" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="227837"></figure></section>And 13 days after the earnings release the company <a href="https://www.sdk.co.jp/assets/files/english/news/2021/20210823_sdknewsrelease_e.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> an equity sale where they would sell 35.1mm shares (including greenshoe) to investors. That is a big number, at roughly a quarter of the pre-existing share count. It is even bigger when you consider shareholder structure. Pricing is likely on 6 September. Below the fold we look at shareholder structure, offer structure, and index demand.

When Showa Denko K.K. (4004 JP) presented their H1 results on 10 August 2021, and later held their analyst call, it seemed quite bullish. The company was a year ahead of its internal integration efforts after having purchased Hitachi Chemical (renaming it Showa Denko Materials) in a HUGE debt-financed deal in 2020. The company noted that all businesses were operating well and that residual negative numbers coming from restructuring costs and other weaknesses were simply a matter of time to overcome.The company showed an OP forecast which even it admitted was light, and for the year the forecast at ¥85bn remains significantly impacted by the amortisation of goodwill due to the purchase of the Hitachi Chemicals business (¥17.6bn this year). This is to say that OP would be 20% higher if Showa Denko had used US-GAAP or IFRS to account for the purchase of Hitachi Chem.Net Income forecasts out years from now are impacted by this cost to amortise the purchase goodwill. The call was interesting in that it talked about efforts to reduce interest-bearing debt, and also talked about aggressive investment measures. That probably should have been a hint. The shares fell hard from the 17th to the 20th as crude oil did too. And 13 days after the earnings release the company announced an equity sale where they would sell 35.1mm shares (including greenshoe) to investors. That is a big number, at roughly a quarter of the pre-existing share count. It is even bigger when you consider shareholder structure. Pricing is likely on 6 September. Below the fold we look at shareholder structure, offer structure, and index demand.

Showa Denko (4004 JP) Offering - Supply, Passive Demand, and Opportunity

Japan

JSR Corporation manufactures synthetic rubber and synthetic resins.  The Company's rubber products are used mainly for auto tires.  JSR Corporation also manufactures LCD-related materials and photo-resists.

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JSR Corp (4185 JP)

JSR Corporation (4185 JP): JIC’s Tender Offer Looming?

Nikkei reports the JIC is in talks to acquire JSR for around JPY1 trillion. The rumoured offer implies a 50% premium to the last close and an all...

Arun George

FujiFilm. A Deep Dive

Q1’23 revenues of ¥764 billion, +15% YoY & 2.6% QoQ. FY2022, revenues +13.2% to ¥2,859, net income +3.9% to ¥219.4. TTM P/E ~16 reflects past, not...

William Keating

Shin-Etsu Chemical (4063 JP) Salutary Earnings, Conservative Forecasts, and Another Buyback

Shin Etsu Chem (4063) is cheapest in a decade to peers on an EV/forward EBIT and forward PER basis. Blowout Q1 earnings and another big buyback. ex...

Travis Lundy

JSR (4185 JP): Inpria Acquisition Lays Out 10-Year Photoresist Roadmap

The acquisition of Inpria gives JSR a technological advantage that should drive sales and profit growth for the next several years as the...

Scott Foster

Showa Denko (4004 JP) Offering - Supply, Passive Demand, and Opportunity

Showa Denko's offering is not ginormous, but it is BIG. And it will engender a fair bit of passive flow. The question is whether investors will buy...

Travis Lundy

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