Financial News, Analysis and Data, FNArena

FNArena

Financial News, Analysis and Data

Online financial media company focused on Australian equities, with a global perspective

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Judo Capital has shocked the market in disclosing a rapid deterioration in loan quality leading to a share price trashing.</li><li>May there be more to come?</li><li> Judo Capital shocks with significant downgrade Share price falls -40% Questions arise as to Judo&rsquo;s credit assessment process Regaining credibility will likely take time</li></ul>

Judo Capital has shocked the market in disclosing a rapid deterioration in loan quality leading to a share price trashing.May there be more to come? Judo Capital shocks with significant downgrade Share price falls -40% Questions arise as to Judo&rsquo;s credit assessment process Regaining credibility will likely take time

Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

<ul>
<li>
PANIC, NOT FUNDAMENTALS.  A 38–46% crash on three borrower-specific impairments. NIM beat, CTI held, loan book grew — the operating engine is intact.</li>
<li>
CLEAN GOVERNANCE RECORD.  Thorough historical research finds no criminal record, no ASIC or APRA enforcement action, and no fraud allegations against management or the company.</li>
<li>
SPECULATIVE BUY — PT A$1.40 (+45% UPSIDE Potential).  At 0.61× TBV and 8× bear-case earnings, downside is capped. 18 August FY26 result is the binary gate.</li>
</ul>



PANIC, NOT FUNDAMENTALS.  A 38–46% crash on three borrower-specific impairments. NIM beat, CTI held, loan book grew — the operating engine is intact.

CLEAN GOVERNANCE RECORD.  Thorough historical research finds no criminal record, no ASIC or APRA enforcement action, and no fraud allegations against management or the company.

SPECULATIVE BUY — PT A$1.40 (+45% UPSIDE Potential).  At 0.61× TBV and 8× bear-case earnings, downside is capped. 18 August FY26 result is the binary gate.


Judo Capital Holdings (JDO AU): Contrarian Buying Opportunity on Panic Selling

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Credit growth is persistently weak in Australia, and this is as good of a sign as any, of weak demand or / and worsening credit metrics. </li>
<li>Many other figures at the macro level point to weakness ahead (and now) for Australia's banks even if credit costs appear low.</li>
<li>WBC data on stressed corporate exposures shows all too well how migration can impact bad loans. BEN shows this too, with mortgage loans.</li>
</ul>


Credit growth is persistently weak in Australia, and this is as good of a sign as any, of weak demand or / and worsening credit metrics. 
Many other figures at the macro level point to weakness ahead (and now) for Australia's banks even if credit costs appear low.
WBC data on stressed corporate exposures shows all too well how migration can impact bad loans. BEN shows this too, with mortgage loans.


Australia Banks - Loan Growth Flat Line, Negative Building Approvals, WBC Credit Metrics Concerning

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jun 26th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD45.1bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Atlas Arteria, Aristocrat Leisure, Santos, AGL Energy, Computershare.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jun 26th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD45.1bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Atlas Arteria, Aristocrat Leisure, Santos, AGL Energy, Computershare.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jun 26th): Atlas Arteria, Aristocrat Leisure, Santos, AGL Energy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I tally xx - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.</li>
<li>Two new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cygnus-metals-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30504:1" rel="noopener">Cygnus Metals (CY5 AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/readytech-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29105:1" rel="noopener">ReadyTech Holdings Ltd (RDY AU)</a>. And <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yamada-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:641:1" rel="noopener">Yamada (9831 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/edion-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14358:1" rel="noopener">Edion (2730 JP)</a>negotiate a Holdco.</li>
<li>Key updates/news also took place on:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaku-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7408:1" rel="noopener">Kakaku.com (2371 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/humm-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35366:1" rel="noopener">Humm Group (HUM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ooh-media-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8662:1" rel="noopener">oOh!Media Ltd (OML AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tyro-payments-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28393:1" rel="noopener">Tyro Payments (TYR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avarga-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13105:1" rel="noopener">Avarga (AVARGA SP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/magnetic-resources-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17051:1" rel="noopener">Magnetic Resources Nl (MAU AU)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally xx - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.
Two new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Cygnus Metals (CY5 AU) and ReadyTech Holdings Ltd (RDY AU). And Yamada (9831 JP) and Edion (2730 JP)negotiate a Holdco.
Key updates/news also took place on:Kakaku.com (2371 JP), Humm Group (HUM AU), oOh!Media Ltd (OML AU), Tyro Payments (TYR AU), Avarga (AVARGA SP), and Magnetic Resources Nl (MAU AU).


Asia-Pac Weekly Wrap: Kakaku.com, Cygnus Metals, ReadyTech, Humm, OOh!Media, Tyro Payments

Australia

Judo Capital Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company through its subsidairies, offers business loans, credit, and equipment loans, as well as renders financing and leasing services. Judo Capital serves customers in Australia.

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Judo Capital (JDO AU)

Judo Capital Lands On The Mat

Judo Capital has shocked the market in disclosing a rapid deterioration in loan quality leading to a share price trashing. May there be more to...

FNArena

Judo Capital Holdings (JDO AU): Contrarian Buying Opportunity on Panic Selling

Article highlights a 38-46% crash due to borrower-specific impairments, but emphasizes strong fundamentals and clean governance record....

Mo Aziz

Australia Banks - Loan Growth Flat Line, Negative Building Approvals, WBC Credit Metrics Concerning

Loan growth flat lining for a long time in Australia, with highly negative growth rates for building approvals, and WBC and BEN showing weakening...

Daniel Tabbush

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jun 26th): Atlas Arteria, Aristocrat Leisure, Santos, AGL Energy

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Atlas Arteria, Aristocrat Leisure, Santos, AGL...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia-Pac Weekly Wrap: Kakaku.com, Cygnus Metals, ReadyTech, Humm, OOh!Media, Tyro Payments

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

Judo Capital Lands On The Mat

Judo Capital has shocked the market in disclosing a rapid deterioration in loan quality leading to a share price trashing. May there be more to...

FNArena

Judo Capital Holdings (JDO AU): Contrarian Buying Opportunity on Panic Selling

​Article highlights a 38-46% crash due to borrower-specific impairments, but emphasizes strong fundamentals and clean governance record....

Mo Aziz

Australia Banks - Loan Growth Flat Line, Negative Building Approvals, WBC Credit Metrics Concerning

Loan growth flat lining for a long time in Australia, with highly negative growth rates for building approvals, and WBC and BEN showing weakening...

Daniel Tabbush

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jun 26th): Atlas Arteria, Aristocrat Leisure, Santos, AGL Energy

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Atlas Arteria, Aristocrat Leisure, Santos, AGL...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia-Pac Weekly Wrap: Kakaku.com, Cygnus Metals, ReadyTech, Humm, OOh!Media, Tyro Payments

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Article highlights a 38-46% crash due to borrower-specific impairments, but emphasizes strong fundamentals and clean governance record....