Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In February, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/idemitsu-kosan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:109:1" rel="noopener">Idemitsu Kosan (5019 JP)</a> announced a new buyback to start when the then-existing one had not yet been completed. This is a pattern the last few years.</li>
<li>On Tuesday, Idemitsu announced the method. Shareholder structure means there is pressure here, and its major peer sees buyback pressure drop imminently. </li>
<li>Be aware of tilts and timing, and what might come in May.</li>
</ul>


In February, Idemitsu Kosan (5019 JP) announced a new buyback to start when the then-existing one had not yet been completed. This is a pattern the last few years.
On Tuesday, Idemitsu announced the method. Shareholder structure means there is pressure here, and its major peer sees buyback pressure drop imminently. 
Be aware of tilts and timing, and what might come in May.


Idemitsu (5019) - Buyback Announced, Executed, To Be Executed Again; Pressure & Timing

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jx-advanced-metals-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44346:1" rel="noopener">JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)</a> has priced its IPO at ¥820/share, at the top end of the IPO range but lower than the initial indication of ¥862/share.</li>
<li>With the bulk of the domestic offering going to retail investors, there is no chance of Fast Entry for the stock in global indices.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">TOPIX INDEX</a> inclusion will take place at the close on 28 April, while inclusion in major global indices is likely to take place in August and September.</li>
</ul>



JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) has priced its IPO at ¥820/share, at the top end of the IPO range but lower than the initial indication of ¥862/share.
With the bulk of the domestic offering going to retail investors, there is no chance of Fast Entry for the stock in global indices.

TOPIX INDEX inclusion will take place at the close on 28 April, while inclusion in major global indices is likely to take place in August and September.


JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: Big Retail Allocation Means No Fast Entry

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Capital Markets

JX Advanced Metals / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>JX Advanced Metals raised 438.6 billion yen (US$3 billion) on its IPO offering after pricing the IPO at 820 yen per share, valuing the company at 761.3 billion yen. </li>
<li>Our base case valuation of JX Advanced Metals is price per share of 863 yen, based on P/E of 9.9x using our estimated net profit of 81 billion yen (2026E).</li>
<li>Therefore, we would sell into strength if the share price of JX Advanced Metals rises to the 863 yen to 1,044 yen per share.</li>
</ul>


JX Advanced Metals raised 438.6 billion yen (US$3 billion) on its IPO offering after pricing the IPO at 820 yen per share, valuing the company at 761.3 billion yen. 
Our base case valuation of JX Advanced Metals is price per share of 863 yen, based on P/E of 9.9x using our estimated net profit of 81 billion yen (2026E).
Therefore, we would sell into strength if the share price of JX Advanced Metals rises to the 863 yen to 1,044 yen per share.


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jx-advanced-metals-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44346:1" rel="noopener">JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)</a> priced its IPO at JPY820 per share to raise gross proceeds of US$2.5 billion. The shares will start trading on 19 March.</li>
<li>Relevant notes: <strong><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jx-advanced-metals-5016-jp-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:176683" rel="noopener">JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jx-advanced-metals-5016-jp-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:176843" rel="noopener">JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: The Bear Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jx-advanced-metals-5016-jp-ipo-price-range-is-fair" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:178246" rel="noopener">JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: Price Range Is Fair</a></em></strong>.</li>
<li>Since the price range was announced, the peers have modestly re-rated. My SoTP valuation of JPY859 is slightly above the IPO price, suggesting the price is fair.</li>
</ul>



JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) priced its IPO at JPY820 per share to raise gross proceeds of US$2.5 billion. The shares will start trading on 19 March.
Relevant notes: JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: The Bull Case, JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: The Bear Case, JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: Price Range Is Fair.
Since the price range was announced, the peers have modestly re-rated. My SoTP valuation of JPY859 is slightly above the IPO price, suggesting the price is fair.


JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: Trading Debut

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jx-advanced-metals-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44346:1" rel="noopener">JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)</a>’s parent, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eneos-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:638:1" rel="noopener">ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP)</a>, raised around US$2.5bn via selling more than half of its stake in JXAM in its Japan IPO.</li>
<li>JXAM engages in business activities primarily focused on the development, manufacture and sale of materials made from copper and rare metals, which are used in the semiconductor and ICT fields.</li>
<li>We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)’s parent, ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP), raised around US$2.5bn via selling more than half of its stake in JXAM in its Japan IPO.
JXAM engages in business activities primarily focused on the development, manufacture and sale of materials made from copper and rare metals, which are used in the semiconductor and ICT fields.
We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.


JX Advance Metals IPO Trading - Demand Wasn’t Great

Japan

JX Advanced Metals Corporation mines and distributes non ferrous metal products. The Company smelts, refines, and markets non ferrous metals such as copper, gold, silver, and more. JX Advanced Metals also sells semiconductor materials, special steel materials, and other products.

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JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)

Idemitsu (5019) - Buyback Announced, Executed, To Be Executed Again; Pressure & Timing

Idemitsu announced a decent-sized buyback. It is 20+% of Max Real World Float though crossholders may start selling next FY. There is timing to a...

Travis Lundy