Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>KOSPI Size Index Series rebalances twice a year in March and September. The base date is February 28. It is a three-month review, so, from December 1 to February 28.</li>
<li>In the KOSPI size index rebalancing, an increase in the buying volume of local institutions for stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap is generally detected. </li>
<li>14 new MidCap entrants are expected to have a sizable passive impact.</li>
</ul>


KOSPI Size Index Series rebalances twice a year in March and September. The base date is February 28. It is a three-month review, so, from December 1 to February 28.
In the KOSPI size index rebalancing, an increase in the buying volume of local institutions for stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap is generally detected. 
14 new MidCap entrants are expected to have a sizable passive impact.


KOSPI Size Index Series Rebalancing Screening Results

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The screening results based on the average market cap for the screening period until the last closing price have seven additions/deletions.</li>
<li>LG Energy will make Fast Entry. The one to make room for LG Energy should be Dongwon F&amp;B, an additional deletion to the seven deletions through the preliminary filtering.</li>
<li>F&amp;F Holdings may fail to meet the minimum float rate. If it doesn't make KOSPI 200 this time, Hyundai Marine &amp; Fire Insurance will get to stay in the Index.</li>
</ul>


The screening results based on the average market cap for the screening period until the last closing price have seven additions/deletions.
LG Energy will make Fast Entry. The one to make room for LG Energy should be Dongwon F&amp;B, an additional deletion to the seven deletions through the preliminary filtering.
F&amp;F Holdings may fail to meet the minimum float rate. If it doesn't make KOSPI 200 this time, Hyundai Marine &amp; Fire Insurance will get to stay in the Index.


KOSPI 200 Rebalancing Screening: Prediction Likelihood, Special Issues, & Passive Impacts

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>After a terrible IPO book building results, K Car's shares have rallied nicely in the past several days. </li>
<li>The company generated sales of 1,400.6 billion won (up 42% YoY) and operating profit of 56.9 billion won (up 88.8% YoY) in 1Q-3Q 2021.</li>
<li>Our base to high case valuation of K Car is 38,809 won and 46,959 won, respectively, which represent 12% and 35% higher upside versus current price.</li>
</ul>


After a terrible IPO book building results, K Car's shares have rallied nicely in the past several days. 
The company generated sales of 1,400.6 billion won (up 42% YoY) and operating profit of 56.9 billion won (up 88.8% YoY) in 1Q-3Q 2021.
Our base to high case valuation of K Car is 38,809 won and 46,959 won, respectively, which represent 12% and 35% higher upside versus current price.


K Car's Share Price Roars Higher Driven by a Greater Demand for Online Purchase of Used Vehicles

Equity Capital Markets

SubscriptionThe offering price got finalized at ₩25,000, even much lower than the lower end of the indicative price band. As a result, it gets to raise ₩337B through this IPO, with an implied market cap of ₩1.22T.





Final pricing

Price
₩25,000


: Total offering
13,464,231


: Primary
1,202,164


: Secondary
12,262,067


Base deal size
₩336.6B


: Institutional allotment
₩231.4B


Implied market cap
₩1,222.5B


: Discount
56.00%

Source: DART

The bookbuilding result fell far short of meeting the initial expectations. The competition rate for institutional subscriptions remained at 40 to 1. So, yes, it was virtually the lowest among this year's +₩1T big IPOs, even compared to Krafton (274 to 1). K Car also performed poorly in the retail subscription, which ended at 8.7 to 1, the third-lowest among this year's IPOs.The subscription participation rate is so low that the proportion of each institutional investor type does not mean much. Nevertheless, let's take a closer look. It appears that the proportion of institutional investors with long-term holding tendencies is relatively large, which is at least a good thing for an IPO that has performed so poorly in the bookbuilding.









By investor type
Number of participating institutions
%
Orders applied
%


1. Local publicly raised funds
186
50.13%
100,058,000
33.78%


2. Local brokerages/investment advisories
9
2.43%
52,000
0.02%


3. Local pensions, funds managing proprietary assets, banks, and insurance companies
56
15.09%
63,108,000
21.31%


4. Local - Other (discretionary investment companies, primarily local hedge funds)
69
18.60%
64,045,000
21.62%


5. Foreign (foreign IPO funds &amp; hedge funds)
51
13.75%
68,929,968
23.27%


6. Foreign - Other (mostly local hot money)
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


Total
371
100.00%
296,192,968
100.00%


Subscription rate
40.00

Source: DART

Looking at the order quantity by price range, more than ₩43,200 (the upper end) is close to half. In other words, few institutions have approached this IPO quite positively and aggressively. So, the outcome of this IPO's institutional subscription wasn't the worst. However, because too few institutional investors participated, and about 70% priced it below ₩34,300 (the lower end), the issuer has decided to go super conservative on the pricing.









By price
Number of participating institutions
%
Orders applied
%


&gt; ₩43,200
63
17.00%
142,541,278
48.10%


₩34,300 ~ ₩43,200
54
14.60%
36,579,369
12.30%


&lt; ₩34,300
245
66.00%
114,946,320
38.80%


Unspecified
9
2.40%
2,126,000
0.70%


Total
371
100.00%
296,192,968
100.00%

Source: DART


Allocation
We had a huge amount of forfeited shares from the ESOP, which all went to the institutions, bringing up the institutional allocation weight close to 75%. The remaining 25% went to local retail. Most institutional allocation went to local institutions, and those with relatively long-term holding tendencies have taken two-thirds of it.
On the other hand, the foreign institutional proportion isn't high, accounting for 10% of the total offering and 14% of the institutional allocation. But for an IPO of this size and this much low participation overall, this 10% of the total offering allocated to foreign institutions should be somewhat surprising (in a positive way).









Allocation by type
Holding tendencies
Final, % of the offering
Final, % of post-IPO SO


Institutional total
-
72.70%
20.37%

 

Local publicly raised funds
Long-term
36.45%
10.21%


Local brokerages/investment advisories
Short-term
1.76%
0.49%


Local pensions, funds managing proprietary assets, banks, and insurance companies 
Long-term (pensions) &amp; short-term (proprietary asset managers)
10.97%
3.07%


Local - Other (mostly discretionary investment companies - local hedge funds)
Mainly, short-term
13.52%
3.79%


Foreign (foreign IPO funds &amp; hedge funds) 
Depends
9.99%
2.80%


Foreign - Other (mostly local hot money)
Short-term
0.00%
0.00%



Retail
-
25.00%
7.00%


ESOP
1-year lockup
2.30%
0.63%


Total
-
100.00%
28.00%

Source: DART




K Car Listing: Final Allocation, Lockup Schedule, & Immediate Float

<p>KRX officially announced today that it would not apply the volatility interruption on the first day of listing for newly listed stocks from <strong>October 18th</strong>.</p><p><strong>Both dynamic VI and static VI do not apply on the listing date.</strong> However, in the case of a transfer listing from the KOSDAQ to the KOSPI or a transfer listing from the KOSPI to the KOSDAQ, the current VI continues to apply. However, it won't apply for a transfer from KONEX to KOSDAQ.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/232/793/original/1.png?1632975345" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="232793"></figure></section><div class="content-caption">(Source: KRX)</div><div class="content-highlight"><p>Attached below is the full version of the press release by the KRX.</p></div><p>KRX cited as the reason for this rule change that, although it is a natural phenomenon that price fluctuations accompany the process of finding a fair price on the listing date, the VI was excessively triggered in the recent listings, which undermines transaction continuity.</p><p>In particular, there has been frequent VI activation immediately after the opening, where many investors participated, caused many problems by stopping trading and delaying the discovery of a fair price. Therefore, through this measure, KRX expects to improve the process of finding a fair price for newly listed stocks by increasing transaction continuity on the listing date.</p>

KRX officially announced today that it would not apply the volatility interruption on the first day of listing for newly listed stocks from October 18th.Both dynamic VI and static VI do not apply on the listing date. However, in the case of a transfer listing from the KOSDAQ to the KOSPI or a transfer listing from the KOSPI to the KOSDAQ, the current VI continues to apply. However, it won't apply for a transfer from KONEX to KOSDAQ.(Source: KRX)Attached below is the full version of the press release by the KRX.KRX cited as the reason for this rule change that, although it is a natural phenomenon that price fluctuations accompany the process of finding a fair price on the listing date, the VI was excessively triggered in the recent listings, which undermines transaction continuity.In particular, there has been frequent VI activation immediately after the opening, where many investors participated, caused many problems by stopping trading and delaying the discovery of a fair price. Therefore, through this measure, KRX expects to improve the process of finding a fair price for newly listed stocks by increasing transaction continuity on the listing date.

No VI (Volatility Interruption) Applies to Korean IPO Stocks on the Listing Date After October 18

South Korea

K Car Co., Ltd. retails used automobiles. The Company distributes sedans, commercial vehicles, light trucks, utility vehicles, used vehicles, and other related automobiles. K Car markets its products throughout South Korea.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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K Car (381970 KS)

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KOSPI 200 Rebalancing Screening: Prediction Likelihood, Special Issues, & Passive Impacts

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K Car Listing: Final Allocation, Lockup Schedule, & Immediate Float

K Car's final allocation results are out. This post summarizes the allocation, lockup schedule, and immediate float of the K Car listing.

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No VI (Volatility Interruption) Applies to Korean IPO Stocks on the Listing Date After October 18

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Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

KOSPI Size Index Series Rebalancing Screening Results

This post has the screening results of the KOSPI Size Index Series rebalancing: 14 new MidCap entrants are expected to have a sizable passive impact.

Sanghyun Park

KOSPI 200 Rebalancing Screening: Prediction Likelihood, Special Issues, & Passive Impacts

This post has the screening results of the KOSPI 200 rebalancing, with a focus on prediction likelihood, special considerations, and passive impacts.

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K Car's Share Price Roars Higher Driven by a Greater Demand for Online Purchase of Used Vehicles

K Car's share price has roared back in the past couple of days after trading in a range post the IPO. A bullish Goldman Sachs report has been a key...

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K Car Listing: Final Allocation, Lockup Schedule, & Immediate Float

K Car's final allocation results are out. This post summarizes the allocation, lockup schedule, and immediate float of the K Car listing.

Sanghyun Park

No VI (Volatility Interruption) Applies to Korean IPO Stocks on the Listing Date After October 18

The KRX made it official that no VI (volatility interruption) applies to IPO stocks on the listing date after October 18. This post details the...

Sanghyun Park