Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>We gauge the intensity of certain topics and narratives concerning China's property sector via the analysis of the mainstream Chinese media headlines.</li>
<li>Overall, 2023 was marked by the initial market recovery 'talk' which then faded, followed by the spike in policy support for the sector, though less so towards the year-end.</li>
<li>Certain topics have jumped in prominence in H2 on policy directives: affordable housing and renovating urban villages.</li>
</ul>


We gauge the intensity of certain topics and narratives concerning China's property sector via the analysis of the mainstream Chinese media headlines.
Overall, 2023 was marked by the initial market recovery 'talk' which then faded, followed by the spike in policy support for the sector, though less so towards the year-end.
Certain topics have jumped in prominence in H2 on policy directives: affordable housing and renovating urban villages.


China Property: 2023 In Word Frequency Charts

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>This note is a weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress</li>
<li>We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market</li>
<li>We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources</li>
</ul>


This note is a weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources


China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Jan 12-18, 2024

<ul>
<li>Today's NBS data for house price growth (new homes and the secondary market) for 70 major cities in December 2023 indicates further declines </li>
<li>Aggregate figures and averages may not reflect the 'on-the-ground' feel, but the relative performance of cities should give a good indication of city-level dynamics</li>
<li>Chengdu, Shanghai, Xi'an, and Sanya finished with the relatively strongest growth rates year-on-year for the new home price growth</li>
</ul>


Today's NBS data for house price growth (new homes and the secondary market) for 70 major cities in December 2023 indicates further declines 
Aggregate figures and averages may not reflect the 'on-the-ground' feel, but the relative performance of cities should give a good indication of city-level dynamics
Chengdu, Shanghai, Xi'an, and Sanya finished with the relatively strongest growth rates year-on-year for the new home price growth


China Official House Price Growth Rates Turn More Negative In December 2023

<ul>
<li>Today's NBS data for December points to further weakness in the housing market year-to-date year-on-year while turning less negative on most indicators on a 12M rolling basis</li>
<li>But the main caveat persists - the 2022 data (March-December) continued to be revised down (officially) for some key metrics like new home sales</li>
<li>Land sales /acquisitions figures, however, show a clear improvement on multiple (non-NBS) metrics, especially for major 13 developers </li>
</ul>


Today's NBS data for December points to further weakness in the housing market year-to-date year-on-year while turning less negative on most indicators on a 12M rolling basis
But the main caveat persists - the 2022 data (March-December) continued to be revised down (officially) for some key metrics like new home sales
Land sales /acquisitions figures, however, show a clear improvement on multiple (non-NBS) metrics, especially for major 13 developers 


China Property - Today's NBS Macro-Property Data for December 2023

<ul>
<li>China's Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL) data shows a spike in December, though 2023 still ended with a lower PSL increase than 2022</li>
<li>The latest increase is seen by some as a signal of support ultimately for the property sector, though we think this is very different from the 2014-2015 stimulus</li>
<li>The previous increases in 2022 were associated with support for the completion of unfinished development projects, and in 2014-2018, with shantytown renovation schemes, incl. "monetarization"</li>
</ul>


China's Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL) data shows a spike in December, though 2023 still ended with a lower PSL increase than 2022
The latest increase is seen by some as a signal of support ultimately for the property sector, though we think this is very different from the 2014-2015 stimulus
The previous increases in 2022 were associated with support for the completion of unfinished development projects, and in 2014-2018, with shantytown renovation schemes, incl. "monetarization"


China Macro-Property: The Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL) December 2023 Spike In Context

China

Kaisa Group Holdings Limited is an integrated real estate company. The Group focuses on urban development and operation. Kaisa Group's real estate business covers the planning, development and operation of large-scale residential properties and integrated commercial properties.

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Kaisa Group Holdings (1638 HK)

China Property: 2023 In Word Frequency Charts

China Housing - visualizing more granular city-level property data over multiple periods of time gives a better intuition about the market across...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Jan 12-18, 2024

China property developers in distress (Jan 12-18, 2024) - deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant...

Robert Ciemniak

China Official House Price Growth Rates Turn More Negative In December 2023

China House Prices: Chengdu, Shanghai, Xi'an, and Sanya finished with the relatively strongest growth rates year-on-year for the new home price...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property - Today's NBS Macro-Property Data for December 2023

Today's NBS data for December points to further weakness in the housing market year-to-date year-on-year while turning less negative on most...

Robert Ciemniak

China Macro-Property: The Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL) December 2023 Spike In Context

China Macro-Property: In this note, we look briefly at the latest spike in Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL) in December 2023, putting it into...

Robert Ciemniak

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