Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In this webinar, part of Real Estate Foresight's 12th annual China Property Outlook, we share our views on 2024 for the China housing markets</li>
<li>We explore several themes, incl. the latest Whitelist approvals by local governments and a wave of related announcements</li>
<li>The webinar presentation was recorded on Feb 6, 2024. You can also view <a href="https://vimeo.com/911098574/5874dfd757?share=copy" target="_blank" rel="noopener">this 3-minute version</a> with a few highlights.</li>
</ul>


In this webinar, part of Real Estate Foresight's 12th annual China Property Outlook, we share our views on 2024 for the China housing markets
We explore several themes, incl. the latest Whitelist approvals by local governments and a wave of related announcements
The webinar presentation was recorded on Feb 6, 2024. You can also view this 3-minute version with a few highlights.


Webinar Recording: 12th Annual China Property Outlook by Real Estate Foresight, "The Big Shifts"

<ul>
<li>We highlight the latest policy developments with the wave of developer projects getting whitelisted for financing support.</li>
<li>There is plenty of local news about city-level project approvals and a growing number of developers announced how many of theirs have been whitelisted.</li>
<li>The big question is what proportion of the whitelisted projects will get the actual loans.</li>
</ul>


We highlight the latest policy developments with the wave of developer projects getting whitelisted for financing support.
There is plenty of local news about city-level project approvals and a growing number of developers announced how many of theirs have been whitelisted.
The big question is what proportion of the whitelisted projects will get the actual loans.


<ul>
<li>China's new home ('commercial residential') sales dropped from the peak of 1.57 billion sqm (GFA) in 2021 to 0.95 billion sqm in 2023</li>
<li>Major 9 cities  fared better, but an important shift took place there, with the secondary markets taking over the new home sales for the first time in 2023</li>
<li>In this note, we look at the dynamics of this shift, drawing on data on primary and secondary sales and house prices, as well as the local anecdotal evidence </li>
</ul>


China's new home ('commercial residential') sales dropped from the peak of 1.57 billion sqm (GFA) in 2021 to 0.95 billion sqm in 2023
Major 9 cities  fared better, but an important shift took place there, with the secondary markets taking over the new home sales for the first time in 2023
In this note, we look at the dynamics of this shift, drawing on data on primary and secondary sales and house prices, as well as the local anecdotal evidence 


China Property - A Shift To Secondary Markets?

<ul>
<li>Today's NBS data for September points to further weakening in the housing market year-to-date year-on-year while turning less negative on most indicators on a 12M rolling basis</li>
<li>It's in line with our forecast from Dec 2022 data, and also consistent with what the weekly data suggested earlier</li>
<li>But the main caveat persists - the 2022 data (May-Sep) continued to be revised down (officially) for some key metrics like new home sales</li>
</ul>


Today's NBS data for September points to further weakening in the housing market year-to-date year-on-year while turning less negative on most indicators on a 12M rolling basis
It's in line with our forecast from Dec 2022 data, and also consistent with what the weekly data suggested earlier
But the main caveat persists - the 2022 data (May-Sep) continued to be revised down (officially) for some key metrics like new home sales


China Property - Today's NBS Macro-Property Data for September 2023

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The sales of new homes over the 1999-2022 period appear to be not out of sync with the increase in the number of urban households </li>
<li>The fact that 'modern housing' in China only started at the end of 1990s, gives the sector unique long-term characteristics, harder to gauge using typical models</li>
<li>Hence the practical demand-supply balance may be better than typically thought, keeping in mind the affordability and wealth distribution issues, variation by region and city</li>
</ul>


The sales of new homes over the 1999-2022 period appear to be not out of sync with the increase in the number of urban households 
The fact that 'modern housing' in China only started at the end of 1990s, gives the sector unique long-term characteristics, harder to gauge using typical models
Hence the practical demand-supply balance may be better than typically thought, keeping in mind the affordability and wealth distribution issues, variation by region and city


China Housing - Demand-Supply Fundamentals Part #1: The "Modern Housing" Argument

China

Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. is a large-scale integrated investment group primarily engaged in property development, investment, and management, alongside hotel and catering, cultural center, and healthcare operations. Its portfolio includes residential properties, villas, offices, serviced apartments, and urban complexes. The company was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Hong Kong.

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Kaisa Group (1638 HK)

Webinar Recording: 12th Annual China Property Outlook by Real Estate Foresight, "The Big Shifts"

China: As the Two Meetings kick off this week, our China Property Outlook 2024 webinar from February dives deeper into the China housing market,...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property: The Red-Hot Whitelists

We highlight the latest policy developments with the wave of developer projects getting whitelisted for financing support.

Robert Ciemniak

China Property - A Shift To Secondary Markets?

China Property / Housing Markets: Real Estate Foresight's take on the 2024 outlook for new home sales, new starts, and the major themes for the...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property - Today's NBS Macro-Property Data for September 2023

We slice and dice various metrics for China 'macro-property' data with today's NBS release of the new data for September 2023.

Robert Ciemniak

China Housing - Demand-Supply Fundamentals Part #1: The "Modern Housing" Argument

How oversupplied is the China housing market? Thinking beyond the current downturn and crisis for many developers, the answer might not be so simple.

Robert Ciemniak

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)