'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>•BEST &amp; WORST 4th AUGUST •</strong></p></div><div>
<p>The 'best' and 'worst' from yesterday's large-cap announcements came from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-techno-solutions-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2431:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Techno Solutions (4739 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nok-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2980:1" rel="noopener">NOK Corp (7240 JP)</a>, respectively - both mostly driven by forecasts.  More extensive coverage follows in the DETAIL section below.</p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/150/543/original/2020-08-05_06-36-25.png?1596577023" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="150543"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/150/530/original/2020-08-05_05-52-12.png?1596574370" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="150530"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
<hr>
</div><div>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
<hr>
</div><div><p><strong>PERCENTAGES</strong> - 74% of quarterly results,  80% of annual forecasts/revisions and 73% of interim forecasts have negative Scores and 33% of companies reporting lost money for the quarter.</p></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>127 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Results Score:</strong> 24% Positive / 2% Neutral / 74% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change: </strong>-4.5 points</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue: </strong>-13.4% Quarter YoY / -3.9% Rolling TTM YoY </li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -1.8 ppt</li>
<li>
<strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 33%</li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><br><strong>59 Annual • 33 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 17% Positive / 3% Neutral / 80% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 24% Positive / 3% Neutral / 73% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -9.7 points</li>
</ul></div>

•BEST &amp; WORST 4th AUGUST •
The 'best' and 'worst' from yesterday's large-cap announcements came from Itochu Techno Solutions (4739 JP) and NOK Corp (7240 JP), respectively - both mostly driven by forecasts.  More extensive coverage follows in the DETAIL section below.
Source • Japan Analytics


DAILY STATS

PERCENTAGES - 74% of quarterly results,  80% of annual forecasts/revisions and 73% of interim forecasts have negative Scores and 33% of companies reporting lost money for the quarter.127 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 24% Positive / 2% Neutral / 74% Negative

Average Results Score Change: -4.5 points

Average % Change in Revenue: -13.4% Quarter YoY / -3.9% Rolling TTM YoY 

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.8 ppt

Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 33%
 59 Annual • 33 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 17% Positive / 3% Neutral / 80% Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 24% Positive / 3% Neutral / 73% Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -9.7 points


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 4th August - Sony, CTC, Kakaku.com, Daikin, Yamaha, Tokai Carbon

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I tally 32 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.</li>
<li>One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/frasers-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22158:1" rel="noopener">Frasers Group (FRAS LN)</a></strong>'s on-market Offer for <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/accent-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14283:1" rel="noopener">Accent Group (AX1 AU)</a></strong>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news also took place on: <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/australian-strategic-materials" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30815:1" rel="noopener">Australian Strategic Materials (ASM AU)</a></strong>, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ooh-media-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8662:1" rel="noopener">oOh!Media Ltd (OML AU)</a></strong>, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qube-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:958:1" rel="noopener">Qube Holdings (QUB AU)</a></strong>, and <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-shengmu-organic-milk-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12714:1" rel="noopener">China Shengmu Organic Milk (1432 HK)</a></strong>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 32 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.
One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Frasers Group (FRAS LN)'s on-market Offer for Accent Group (AX1 AU).
Key updates/news also took place on: Australian Strategic Materials (ASM AU), oOh!Media Ltd (OML AU), Qube Holdings (QUB AU), and China Shengmu Organic Milk (1432 HK).


Asia-Pac Weekly Wrap: Accent Group, ASM, OOh!Media, Qube Holdings, China Shengmu

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/116/367/original/2020-02-05_03-43-39.png?1580847984" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="116367"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>4TH FEBRUARY ROUNDUP</strong> - As expected the 121 Results and 41 Forecast/Revision announcements yesterday took our <strong>Results Score 16bps lower to a new three-year low,</strong> although the Score is still positive. The Forecast/REvision Score added 13bps helped by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takeda-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1" rel="noopener">Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12933:1" rel="noopener">Kao (4452 JP)</a> although the latter's forecast is optimistic as we discuss in the <strong>DETAIL</strong> below.</p><hr><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• SECTOR TIMELINE •</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/116/368/original/2020-02-05_03-47-58.png?1580848469" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="116368"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>SECTOR TIMELINE</strong> - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hoya-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8990:1" rel="noopener">Hoya (7741 JP)</a>'s results were the largest factor in the decline in the <strong>Other Commerical Products</strong> Sector. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takeda-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1" rel="noopener">Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)</a> helped <strong>Healthcare t</strong>ick up, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-ufj-financial-gro" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:218:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)</a> fuelled the strong recovery in the<strong> Banks</strong> Sector.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/systena-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20438:1" rel="noopener">Systena (2317 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ntt-data-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11232:1" rel="noopener">NTT Data (9613 JP)</a> added to the erosion of the <strong>Information Technology</strong> Sector's lead, although partially offset by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-techno-solutions-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2431:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Techno Solutions (4739 JP)</a>.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20799:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui (8031 JP)</a> 21% yoy decline in Q3 Net Income continued to downtrend in the <strong>Wholesale</strong> Sector's Score.   </p>

Source • Japan Analytics4TH FEBRUARY ROUNDUP - As expected the 121 Results and 41 Forecast/Revision announcements yesterday took our Results Score 16bps lower to a new three-year low, although the Score is still positive. The Forecast/REvision Score added 13bps helped by Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) and Kao (4452 JP) although the latter's forecast is optimistic as we discuss in the DETAIL below.• SECTOR TIMELINE •Source • Japan AnalyticsSECTOR TIMELINE - Hoya (7741 JP)'s results were the largest factor in the decline in the Other Commerical Products Sector. Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) helped Healthcare tick up, while Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP) fuelled the strong recovery in the Banks Sector.  Systena (2317 JP) and NTT Data (9613 JP) added to the erosion of the Information Technology Sector's lead, although partially offset by Itochu Techno Solutions (4739 JP).  Mitsui (8031 JP) 21% yoy decline in Q3 Net Income continued to downtrend in the Wholesale Sector's Score.   

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 4th February ▲2371 4502 4739 ▼7741 4452 2317

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow for the merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads: <strong><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/skyworth-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10941:1" rel="noopener">Skyworth (751 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qoria-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30531:1" rel="noopener">Qoria (QOR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/changhong-jiahua-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5849:1" rel="noopener">Changhong Jiahua (3991 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/humm-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35366:1" rel="noopener">Humm Group (HUM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-s-b-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46379:1" rel="noopener">J.S.B (3480 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/continental-aerospace-technologies-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15249:1" rel="noopener">Continental Aerospace Technologies (232 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tourism-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2787:1" rel="noopener">Tourism Holdings (THL NZ)</a>. </em></strong>
</li>
<li>Lowest spreads: <strong><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiyo-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15154:1" rel="noopener">Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaku-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7408:1" rel="noopener">Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-dry-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13528:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Dry Chemical (1909 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/australian-strategic-materials" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30815:1" rel="noopener">Australian Strategic Materials (ASM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-shoji-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2322:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Shoji (8141 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kodensha-co-ltd-the" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2741:1" rel="noopener">Kodensha Co (1948 JP)</a>. </em></strong>
</li>
</ul>


I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow for the merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Skyworth (751 HK), Qoria (QOR AU), Changhong Jiahua (3991 HK), Humm Group (HUM AU), J.S.B (3480 JP), Continental Aerospace Technologies (232 HK), Tourism Holdings (THL NZ). 

Lowest spreads: Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP), Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP), Nippon Dry Chemical (1909 JP), Australian Strategic Materials (ASM AU), Shinko Shoji (8141 JP), Kodensha Co (1948 JP). 



Merger Arb Mondays (15 Jun) - Skyworth, Changhong Jiahua, Con Aero, JSB, Nippon Dry, Steadfast

<ul>
<li>I tally 33 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.</li>
<li>One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/steadfast-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8181:1" rel="noopener">Steadfast (SDF AU)</a></strong>'s NBIO. Arguably <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/continental-aerospace-technologies-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15249:1" rel="noopener">Continental Aerospace Technologies (232 HK)</a></strong> is a pseudo arb.</li>
<li>Key updates/news also took place on <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/atlas-arteria-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14430:1" rel="noopener">Atlas Arteria (ALX AU)</a></strong>, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ooh-media-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8662:1" rel="noopener">oOh!Media Ltd (OML AU)</a></strong>, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-dry-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13528:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Dry Chemical (1909 JP)</a></strong>, and <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monash-ivf-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18130:1" rel="noopener">Monash IVF (MVF AU)</a></strong>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 33 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.
One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Steadfast (SDF AU)'s NBIO. Arguably Continental Aerospace Technologies (232 HK) is a pseudo arb.
Key updates/news also took place on Atlas Arteria (ALX AU), oOh!Media Ltd (OML AU), Nippon Dry Chemical (1909 JP), and Monash IVF (MVF AU).


Asia-Pac Weekly Wrap:Steadfast, Con Aero Tech, Atlas Arteria, OOh!Media, Nippon Dry Chem, Monash IVF

Japan

Kakaku.com, Inc provides price comparison services and products information through its website.  The Company also provides Internet advertising services.

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Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 4th August - Sony, CTC, Kakaku.com, Daikin, Yamaha, Tokai Carbon

•BEST & WORST 4th AUGUST • The 'best' and 'worst' from yesterday's large-cap announcements came from Itochu Techno Solutions (4739 JP) and NOK...

Campbell Gunn

Asia-Pac Weekly Wrap: Accent Group, ASM, OOh!Media, Qube Holdings, China Shengmu

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 4th February ▲2371 4502 4739 ▼7741 4452 2317

4TH FEBRUARY ROUNDUP - As expected the 121 Results and 41 Forecast/Revision announcements yesterday took our Results Score 16bps lower to a new...

Campbell Gunn

Merger Arb Mondays (15 Jun) - Skyworth, Changhong Jiahua, Con Aero, JSB, Nippon Dry, Steadfast

I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow for the merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, NZ, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia,...

Arun George

Asia-Pac Weekly Wrap:Steadfast, Con Aero Tech, Atlas Arteria, OOh!Media, Nippon Dry Chem, Monash IVF

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

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