Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>As a result of the arrest of Kim Beom-Su, the near term impact on the Kakao companies (including Kakao Corp, Kakao Bank, Kakao Pay, and Kakao Games) is clearly negative.</li>
<li>Given that this is a highly publicized event, it is likely that this legal case will be PROLONGED and finally decided by the Supreme Court which could take several years.</li>
<li>Some of the scenarios include Kakao Group selling partial stakes in Kakao Bank and SM Entertainment but this is likely to get dragged on, resulting in further uncertainty.</li>
</ul>


As a result of the arrest of Kim Beom-Su, the near term impact on the Kakao companies (including Kakao Corp, Kakao Bank, Kakao Pay, and Kakao Games) is clearly negative.
Given that this is a highly publicized event, it is likely that this legal case will be PROLONGED and finally decided by the Supreme Court which could take several years.
Some of the scenarios include Kakao Group selling partial stakes in Kakao Bank and SM Entertainment but this is likely to get dragged on, resulting in further uncertainty.


Kakao Group Founder Kim Beom-Su Gets Arrested - What's Next?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Following the short sell ban announced on the weekend, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150</a> opened higher on Monday and rallied through the day.</li>
<li>A lot of the intraday gains on Monday have been given up over the next two trading days. Surprisingly, KRX data indicates that not a lot of shorts have covered.</li>
<li>Foreigners have been net cash buyers since Monday (could indicate covering of offshore borrow) while retail were big sellers on Monday.</li>
</ul>


Following the short sell ban announced on the weekend, the KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 opened higher on Monday and rallied through the day.
A lot of the intraday gains on Monday have been given up over the next two trading days. Surprisingly, KRX data indicates that not a lot of shorts have covered.
Foreigners have been net cash buyers since Monday (could indicate covering of offshore borrow) while retail were big sellers on Monday.


Korea Short Sell Ban: Not a Lot Covered on Monday; Shorts Holding On?

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Korea banned all short selling in March 2020 and resumed short selling only on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150</a> index constituents in May 2021.</li>
<li>News reports indicate that there could be another short sell ban as soon as the coming week. Indications are that the ban could last 6 months.</li>
<li>There are many implications of a total short sell ban including futures backwardation, market manipulation, and no emerging to developed market promotion.</li>
</ul>


Korea banned all short selling in March 2020 and resumed short selling only on KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 index constituents in May 2021.
News reports indicate that there could be another short sell ban as soon as the coming week. Indications are that the ban could last 6 months.
There are many implications of a total short sell ban including futures backwardation, market manipulation, and no emerging to developed market promotion.


Korea Short Sell Ban: Background, Manipulation, Holdings, Flows, Short Interest, Implications

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-chem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3583:1" rel="noopener">LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS)</a> aims to raise around US$2bn via offering 2028 and 2030 puttable USD exchangeable bonds for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-energy-solution" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33464:1" rel="noopener">LG Energy Solution (373220 KS)</a> shares.</li>
<li>LG Chem (LGC) had been rumoured to sell down some of its stake in LG Energy Solutions (LGES), hence, this deal will remove the overhang on LGES.</li>
<li>In this note, we have a quick look at the deal and provide our thoughts on the structure.</li>
</ul>



LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS) aims to raise around US$2bn via offering 2028 and 2030 puttable USD exchangeable bonds for LG Energy Solution (373220 KS) shares.
LG Chem (LGC) had been rumoured to sell down some of its stake in LG Energy Solutions (LGES), hence, this deal will remove the overhang on LGES.
In this note, we have a quick look at the deal and provide our thoughts on the structure.


LG Energy - Quick Thoughts on US$2bn EB Offering by Parent

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we provided the most recent ranking of the top 100 most popular YouTube channels in Korea (according to Socialblade website).</li>
<li>The top 100 YouTube channels in Korea have received 390.7 billion in total views as of June 2023. Of these total views, K-Pop channels views accounted for 46.4% share.</li>
<li>YouTube has been meaningfully taking away market share from Kakao and Naver in the past three years. KakaoTalk's MAU was 41.5 million in May 2023. YouTube was a close second.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we provided the most recent ranking of the top 100 most popular YouTube channels in Korea (according to Socialblade website).
The top 100 YouTube channels in Korea have received 390.7 billion in total views as of June 2023. Of these total views, K-Pop channels views accounted for 46.4% share.
YouTube has been meaningfully taking away market share from Kakao and Naver in the past three years. KakaoTalk's MAU was 41.5 million in May 2023. YouTube was a close second.


Analysis of Top 100 Korean YouTube Channels + Significant Market Share Gains for YouTube in Korea

South Korea

Kakao Corp. provides Internet portal services such as news, free e-mail, and leisure information.  The Company also offers cross-platform mobile messaging application that allows users to exchange messages.

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Kakao Corp (035720 KS)

Kakao Group Founder Kim Beom-Su Gets Arrested - What's Next?

As a result of the arrest of Kim Beom-Su, the near term impact on the Kakao companies (including Kakao Corp, Kakao Bank, Kakao Pay, and Kakao...

Douglas Kim

Korea Short Sell Ban: Not a Lot Covered on Monday; Shorts Holding On?

Not a lot of shorts were covered on Monday. There could be more covering in the near term as the market drifts lower. KOSPI200 underperformed...

Brian Freitas

Korea Short Sell Ban: Background, Manipulation, Holdings, Flows, Short Interest, Implications

Media reports indicate that there could be a temporary short sell ban in Korea. This could lead to futures backwardation, market manipulation and a...

Brian Freitas

LG Energy - Quick Thoughts on US$2bn EB Offering by Parent

LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS) aims to raise around US$2bn via offering 2028 and 2030 puttable USD exchangeable bonds for LG Energy Solution (373220 KS)...

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Kakao Group Founder Kim Beom-Su Gets Arrested - What's Next?

As a result of the arrest of Kim Beom-Su, the near term impact on the Kakao companies (including Kakao Corp, Kakao Bank, Kakao Pay, and Kakao...

Douglas Kim

Korea Short Sell Ban: Not a Lot Covered on Monday; Shorts Holding On?

Not a lot of shorts were covered on Monday. There could be more covering in the near term as the market drifts lower. KOSPI200 underperformed...

Brian Freitas

Korea Short Sell Ban: Background, Manipulation, Holdings, Flows, Short Interest, Implications

Media reports indicate that there could be a temporary short sell ban in Korea. This could lead to futures backwardation, market manipulation and a...

Brian Freitas

LG Energy - Quick Thoughts on US$2bn EB Offering by Parent

LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS) aims to raise around US$2bn via offering 2028 and 2030 puttable USD exchangeable bonds for LG Energy Solution (373220 KS)...

Sumeet Singh

Analysis of Top 100 Korean YouTube Channels + Significant Market Share Gains for YouTube in Korea

In this insight, we analyze the most recent ranking of the top 100 most popular YouTube channels in Korea (according to Socialblade website).

Douglas Kim