Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index / Technical Analysis

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHCOMP INDEX)

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $119-$121.</li>
<li>$125-$126 and $123-$123.50 are short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US; we will maintain our near-term bullish outlook as long as $123 support holds.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $119-$121.
$125-$126 and $123-$123.50 are short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US; we will maintain our near-term bullish outlook as long as $123 support holds.


China and Japan Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Remains Weak

<ul>
<li>We discussed last week (Feb. 27 Int'l Compass) how both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 displayed false breakouts, and to look for near-term pullbacks</li>
<li>We said expect pullbacks to range supports at $116 on ACWI-US and 5770-5850 or 5600-5670 on the S&amp;P 500 in the coming weeks, where we would be buyers.</li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 is testing the 5770-5850 range now, while ACWI-US is testing its 200-day MA at $117. It is possible ACWI-US finds support here. Upgrading Europe to overweight</li>
</ul>


We discussed last week (Feb. 27 Int'l Compass) how both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 displayed false breakouts, and to look for near-term pullbacks
We said expect pullbacks to range supports at $116 on ACWI-US and 5770-5850 or 5600-5670 on the S&amp;P 500 in the coming weeks, where we would be buyers.
The S&amp;P 500 is testing the 5770-5850 range now, while ACWI-US is testing its 200-day MA at $117. It is possible ACWI-US finds support here. Upgrading Europe to overweight


Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. (S&P 500) For a Downgrade; Buy Gold Miners and More

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Tech selloff overnight on NVDA post-earnings weakness was fairly contained, and SPE related in Japan should continue yesterdays rebound off the morning lows.</li>
<li>Big beat for Dell on the strong outlook for its AI servers outweighing the soft consumer PC market sending it +8% in after-market trading.</li>
<li>News that Tepco plans to spend $3.2bn to upgrade its electricity infrastructure to 2030 positive for wire/cable names and related names.</li>
</ul>


Tech selloff overnight on NVDA post-earnings weakness was fairly contained, and SPE related in Japan should continue yesterdays rebound off the morning lows.
Big beat for Dell on the strong outlook for its AI servers outweighing the soft consumer PC market sending it +8% in after-market trading.
News that Tepco plans to spend $3.2bn to upgrade its electricity infrastructure to 2030 positive for wire/cable names and related names.


Japan Morning Connection: Tech Set to Rebound as Dell After-Market Print Sets Positive Tone

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. SPX +0.4% AS Banks lead after passing Fed's stress test= PAYOUTS ! 2 Fed hikes more likely says Swaps markets; US 1Q GDP REVISED UP to 2%.</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.3% vs Cash; USDJPY 144.8; End of Month/Quarter; Flat NKY Today = +18.5% QTD..best Quarter in a Decade !  Big Japan AGM Week -Biz leaders get heat.</li>
<li>NUGGET. Kandenko(1942) set to benefit from the massive drive to decarbonize by  key client TEPCO.  Co is still trading below book, is net cash, with earnings set to grow !</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. SPX +0.4% AS Banks lead after passing Fed's stress test= PAYOUTS ! 2 Fed hikes more likely says Swaps markets; US 1Q GDP REVISED UP to 2%.
JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.3% vs Cash; USDJPY 144.8; End of Month/Quarter; Flat NKY Today = +18.5% QTD..best Quarter in a Decade !  Big Japan AGM Week -Biz leaders get heat.
NUGGET. Kandenko(1942) set to benefit from the massive drive to decarbonize by  key client TEPCO.  Co is still trading below book, is net cash, with earnings set to grow !


Ohayo Japan |NUGGET: Tepco ¥9 Trillion on Decarbonization - Boon for KANDENDO

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Since the announcement of the US$1.5 billion secondary offering, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nintendo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5415:1" rel="noopener">Nintendo (7974 JP)</a>’s shares have declined 3.5% to the undisturbed price of JPY8,995 per share (26 February).</li>
<li>It is instructive to look at recent large Japanese placements to understand the potential trading pattern. Nintendo's share decline is lower than the median of recent large placements.</li>
<li>The offering will likely be priced on 9 March. The average large Japanese placement tends to generate positive returns.</li>
</ul>


Since the announcement of the US$1.5 billion secondary offering, Nintendo (7974 JP)’s shares have declined 3.5% to the undisturbed price of JPY8,995 per share (26 February).
It is instructive to look at recent large Japanese placements to understand the potential trading pattern. Nintendo's share decline is lower than the median of recent large placements.
The offering will likely be priced on 9 March. The average large Japanese placement tends to generate positive returns.


Japan

KANDENKO CO., LTD. constructs electrical and power facilities such as indoor electrical wiring and high voltage transmission lines.  The Company, affiliated with Tokyo Electric Power, also constructs environmental facilities and communication infrastructure.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, sells electrical machinery.

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Kandenko Co Ltd (1942 JP)

China and Japan Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Remains Weak

China's Shanghai Composite and Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact on global equities $ACWI; U.S....

Vermilion Research

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. (S&P 500) For a Downgrade; Buy Gold Miners and More

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. $SPX for a Downgrade to Market Weight. $ACWI and $SPX likely bottoming here at 200-day MAs. Bullish...

Vermilion Research

Japan Morning Connection: Tech Set to Rebound as Dell After-Market Print Sets Positive Tone

Tech selloff contained, Dell beats with strong outlook for AI servers, Tepco's $3.2bn upgrade plan positive for wire/cable names.

Andrew Jackson

Ohayo Japan |NUGGET: Tepco ¥9 Trillion on Decarbonization - Boon for KANDENDO

SPX up lead by Banks; NKY Futs +0.3% vs Cash; USDJPY 144.8; End of Month/Quarter; Flat NKY Today = +18.5% QTD..best Quarter in a Decade ! Big...

Mark Chadwick

Nintendo (7974 JP): The Current Playbook

The offering, which was reduced due to the ToSTNeT-3 repurchase, will likely be priced on 9 March. The average large Japanese placement tends to...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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China and Japan Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Remains Weak

China's Shanghai Composite and Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact on global equities $ACWI; U.S....

Vermilion Research

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. (S&P 500) For a Downgrade; Buy Gold Miners and More

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. $SPX for a Downgrade to Market Weight. $ACWI and $SPX likely bottoming here at 200-day MAs. Bullish...

Vermilion Research

Japan Morning Connection: Tech Set to Rebound as Dell After-Market Print Sets Positive Tone

​Tech selloff contained, Dell beats with strong outlook for AI servers, Tepco's $3.2bn upgrade plan positive for wire/cable names.

Andrew Jackson

Ohayo Japan |NUGGET: Tepco ¥9 Trillion on Decarbonization - Boon for KANDENDO

SPX up lead by Banks; NKY Futs +0.3% vs Cash; USDJPY 144.8; End of Month/Quarter; Flat NKY Today = +18.5% QTD..best Quarter in a Decade ! Big...

Mark Chadwick

Nintendo (7974 JP): The Current Playbook

The offering, which was reduced due to the ToSTNeT-3 repurchase, will likely be priced on 9 March. The average large Japanese placement tends to...

Arun George

Tech selloff contained, Dell beats with strong outlook for AI servers, Tepco's $3.2bn upgrade plan positive for wire/cable names.