Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Today during the day, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kandenko-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3726:1" rel="noopener">Kandenko Co Ltd (1942 JP)</a> announced a sharp upward revision to its full-year guidance. Revs+4.6%, OP+27%, NP +32%. It was good. The stock popped. </li>
<li>After the close, major owner (46%) <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-electric-power-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15457:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Electric Power Co (9501 JP)</a> announced a selldown of 12.8% of shares out or 23x ADV. </li>
<li>There is a buyback to cover not quite a quarter of it, and index buying will help with another 10%, but the narrative may have changed here.</li>
</ul>


Today during the day, Kandenko Co Ltd (1942 JP) announced a sharp upward revision to its full-year guidance. Revs+4.6%, OP+27%, NP +32%. It was good. The stock popped. 
After the close, major owner (46%) Tokyo Electric Power Co (9501 JP) announced a selldown of 12.8% of shares out or 23x ADV. 
There is a buyback to cover not quite a quarter of it, and index buying will help with another 10%, but the narrative may have changed here.


[Japan ECM] TEPCO Selling Kandenko (1942) Shares - Earnings Surprised But Narrative Violation?

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kandenko-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3726:1" rel="noopener">Kandenko Co Ltd (1942 JP)</a> has announced a secondary offering of 22.8 million shares (26.2 million including overallotment), worth around US$0.8 billion (US$1.0 billion including overallotment).</li>
<li>The timing is opportunistic as the shares are up 159% in the last 12 months. Notably, the placement was announced post-close after the full-year results were <a href="https://www.kandenko.co.jp/en/docs/3Notice%20of%20Revision%20to%20Financial%20Results%20and%20Dividend%20Forecasts.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">upgraded intraday</a>.</li>
<li>The offering as a percentage of outstanding shares and ADV is below average compared to recent large placements. A ToSTNeT-3 repurchase (up to JPY30 billion) will partly mitigate the impact.</li>
</ul>



Kandenko Co Ltd (1942 JP) has announced a secondary offering of 22.8 million shares (26.2 million including overallotment), worth around US$0.8 billion (US$1.0 billion including overallotment).
The timing is opportunistic as the shares are up 159% in the last 12 months. Notably, the placement was announced post-close after the full-year results were upgraded intraday.
The offering as a percentage of outstanding shares and ADV is below average compared to recent large placements. A ToSTNeT-3 repurchase (up to JPY30 billion) will partly mitigate the impact.


Kandenko (1942 JP): A US$1.0 Billion Secondary Offering

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Nicholas Tan

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Tepco Power Grid is looking to sell part of its shares in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kandenko-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3726:1" rel="noopener">Kandenko Co Ltd (1942 JP)</a>  to raise up to US$830m through a secondary offering. </li>
<li>The company plans to conduct a share buyback of up to 7.5m shares (33% of the offered shares) or up to ¥30bn (US$200m) from February 2 to 6.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


Tepco Power Grid is looking to sell part of its shares in Kandenko Co Ltd (1942 JP)  to raise up to US$830m through a secondary offering. 
The company plans to conduct a share buyback of up to 7.5m shares (33% of the offered shares) or up to ¥30bn (US$200m) from February 2 to 6.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Kandenko Placement: Opportunistic Selldown, Stock Has Done Very Well. Buyback Ahead

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Today after the close, Japan's biggest electrical equipment construction co <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kinden-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20620:1" rel="noopener">Kinden Corp (1944 JP)</a> announced a deal to take over a smaller electrical equipment construction co <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kodensha-co-ltd-the" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2741:1" rel="noopener">Kodensha Co (1948 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11171:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Electric (6503 JP)</a> owns 51%. Other corporates own 7%. A few banks own a bit under 2%, then retail owns everything else. As of Mar2025, foreign investors held &lt;1%.</li>
<li>Shares rose sharply last year, and apparently a Nikkei article in January suggested they'd sell the asset. Shares popped on that. Well-flagged. (Inexplicably?) HUGE price. Big win for retail.</li>
</ul>


Today after the close, Japan's biggest electrical equipment construction co Kinden Corp (1944 JP) announced a deal to take over a smaller electrical equipment construction co Kodensha Co (1948 JP). 

Mitsubishi Electric (6503 JP) owns 51%. Other corporates own 7%. A few banks own a bit under 2%, then retail owns everything else. As of Mar2025, foreign investors held &lt;1%.
Shares rose sharply last year, and apparently a Nikkei article in January suggested they'd sell the asset. Shares popped on that. Well-flagged. (Inexplicably?) HUGE price. Big win for retail.


[Japan M&A] Kinden (1944) To Take Over Kodensha (1948) At HUGE UNBELIEVABLE AMAZING Price (¥11,501)

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index / Technical Analysis

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHCOMP INDEX)

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $119-$121.</li>
<li>$125-$126 and $123-$123.50 are short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US; we will maintain our near-term bullish outlook as long as $123 support holds.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $119-$121.
$125-$126 and $123-$123.50 are short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US; we will maintain our near-term bullish outlook as long as $123 support holds.


China and Japan Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Remains Weak

Japan

KANDENKO CO., LTD. constructs electrical and power facilities such as indoor electrical wiring and high voltage transmission lines.  The Company, affiliated with Tokyo Electric Power, also constructs environmental facilities and communication infrastructure.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, sells electrical machinery.

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Kandenko Co Ltd (1942 JP)

[Japan ECM] TEPCO Selling Kandenko (1942) Shares - Earnings Surprised But Narrative Violation?

Kandenko announced a salutary earnings guidance revision intraday and the stock spiked but post-close TEPCO announced a share sale. Narrative...

Travis Lundy

Kandenko (1942 JP): A US$1.0 Billion Secondary Offering

The timing of the placement after upgrading full-year forecasts will not be well-received. The offering as a percentage of out. shares and ADV are...

Arun George

Kandenko Placement: Opportunistic Selldown, Stock Has Done Very Well. Buyback Ahead

Tepco Power Grid plans to sell shares in Kandenko Co Ltd to raise up to $830m, with a share buyback of up to 33% of offered shares. Deal analysis...

Nicholas Tan

[Japan M&A] Kinden (1944) To Take Over Kodensha (1948) At HUGE UNBELIEVABLE AMAZING Price (¥11,501)

Large electrical equipment construction co Kinden is buying smaller 'rival' owned by an industrial electric co. This was flagged to the market and...

Travis Lundy

China and Japan Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Remains Weak

China's Shanghai Composite and Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact on global equities $ACWI; U.S....

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Japan ECM] TEPCO Selling Kandenko (1942) Shares - Earnings Surprised But Narrative Violation?

Kandenko announced a salutary earnings guidance revision intraday and the stock spiked but post-close TEPCO announced a share sale. Narrative...

Travis Lundy

Kandenko (1942 JP): A US$1.0 Billion Secondary Offering

The timing of the placement after upgrading full-year forecasts will not be well-received. The offering as a percentage of out. shares and ADV are...

Arun George

Kandenko Placement: Opportunistic Selldown, Stock Has Done Very Well. Buyback Ahead

​Tepco Power Grid plans to sell shares in Kandenko Co Ltd to raise up to $830m, with a share buyback of up to 33% of offered shares. Deal analysis...

Nicholas Tan

[Japan M&A] Kinden (1944) To Take Over Kodensha (1948) At HUGE UNBELIEVABLE AMAZING Price (¥11,501)

Large electrical equipment construction co Kinden is buying smaller 'rival' owned by an industrial electric co. This was flagged to the market and...

Travis Lundy

China and Japan Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Remains Weak

China's Shanghai Composite and Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact on global equities $ACWI; U.S....

Vermilion Research

Tepco Power Grid plans to sell shares in Kandenko Co Ltd to raise up to $830m, with a share buyback of up to 33% of offered shares. Deal analysis...