IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Neuberger <a href="https://prtimes.jp/main/html/rd/p/000000018.000059963.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">issued a letter</a> concerning the unfair terms of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alsok-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14181:1" rel="noopener">Alsok (2331 JP)</a> and Carlyle offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-dry-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13528:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Dry Chemical (1909 JP)</a>. The first closing date is 29 June.</li>
<li>Neuberger, the second-largest shareholder, highlights six issues with the tender offer. While Neuberger’s criticisms have merit, the Board could credibly refute most of them. </li>
<li>The probability of a bump is low, as Neuberger cannot block the tender, the offer is attractive on several measures, and ALSOK/Carlyle can use the playbook to counter activists.  </li>
</ul>


Neuberger issued a letter concerning the unfair terms of the Alsok (2331 JP) and Carlyle offer for Nippon Dry Chemical (1909 JP). The first closing date is 29 June.
Neuberger, the second-largest shareholder, highlights six issues with the tender offer. While Neuberger’s criticisms have merit, the Board could credibly refute most of them. 
The probability of a bump is low, as Neuberger cannot block the tender, the offer is attractive on several measures, and ALSOK/Carlyle can use the playbook to counter activists.  


Nippon Dry-Chemical (1909 JP): Neuberger Starts an Activist Campaign, but Success Is Uncertain

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>In our October International Strategy, we outline important technical levels across markets and highlight various themes which lead to our neutral outlook, along with areas of the market where we see actionable opportunities, including Japan, and global technology.</p>

In our October International Strategy, we outline important technical levels across markets and highlight various themes which lead to our neutral outlook, along with areas of the market where we see actionable opportunities, including Japan, and global technology.

Global Equity Strategy: Neutral Outlook Intact, Japan and Global Tech Are Bright Spots.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Today after the close, Japan's biggest electrical equipment construction co <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kinden-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20620:1" rel="noopener">Kinden Corp (1944 JP)</a> announced a deal to take over a smaller electrical equipment construction co <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kodensha-co-ltd-the" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2741:1" rel="noopener">Kodensha Co (1948 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11171:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Electric (6503 JP)</a> owns 51%. Other corporates own 7%. A few banks own a bit under 2%, then retail owns everything else. As of Mar2025, foreign investors held &lt;1%.</li>
<li>Shares rose sharply last year, and apparently a Nikkei article in January suggested they'd sell the asset. Shares popped on that. Well-flagged. (Inexplicably?) HUGE price. Big win for retail.</li>
</ul>


Today after the close, Japan's biggest electrical equipment construction co Kinden Corp (1944 JP) announced a deal to take over a smaller electrical equipment construction co Kodensha Co (1948 JP). 

Mitsubishi Electric (6503 JP) owns 51%. Other corporates own 7%. A few banks own a bit under 2%, then retail owns everything else. As of Mar2025, foreign investors held &lt;1%.
Shares rose sharply last year, and apparently a Nikkei article in January suggested they'd sell the asset. Shares popped on that. Well-flagged. (Inexplicably?) HUGE price. Big win for retail.


[Japan M&A] Kinden (1944) To Take Over Kodensha (1948) At HUGE UNBELIEVABLE AMAZING Price (¥11,501)

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Since the announcement of the US$1.5 billion secondary offering, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nintendo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5415:1" rel="noopener">Nintendo (7974 JP)</a>’s shares have declined 3.5% to the undisturbed price of JPY8,995 per share (26 February).</li>
<li>It is instructive to look at recent large Japanese placements to understand the potential trading pattern. Nintendo's share decline is lower than the median of recent large placements.</li>
<li>The offering will likely be priced on 9 March. The average large Japanese placement tends to generate positive returns.</li>
</ul>


Since the announcement of the US$1.5 billion secondary offering, Nintendo (7974 JP)’s shares have declined 3.5% to the undisturbed price of JPY8,995 per share (26 February).
It is instructive to look at recent large Japanese placements to understand the potential trading pattern. Nintendo's share decline is lower than the median of recent large placements.
The offering will likely be priced on 9 March. The average large Japanese placement tends to generate positive returns.


Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Feb 27th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD24,962m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Rakuten Bank, Lasertec, Disco, Kandenko, Toho, SoftBank, Advantest, Sanrio, Tokyo Electron, Create Restaurants.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Feb 27th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD24,962m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Rakuten Bank, Lasertec, Disco, Kandenko, Toho, SoftBank, Advantest, Sanrio, Tokyo Electron, Create Restaurants.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Feb 27th): Rakuten Bank, Lasertec, Disco, Kandenko, Toho, SoftBank

Japan

KANDENKO CO., LTD. constructs electrical and power facilities such as indoor electrical wiring and high voltage transmission lines.  The Company, affiliated with Tokyo Electric Power, also constructs environmental facilities and communication infrastructure.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, sells electrical machinery.

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Kandenko Co Ltd (1942 JP)

Nippon Dry-Chemical (1909 JP): Neuberger Starts an Activist Campaign, but Success Is Uncertain

While Neuberger’s criticisms have merit, the Board could credibly refute most of them. The shares are marginally trading through terms, but the...

Arun George

Global Equity Strategy: Neutral Outlook Intact, Japan and Global Tech Are Bright Spots.

In our October International Strategy, we outline important technical levels across markets and highlight various themes which lead to our neutral...

Vermilion Research

[Japan M&A] Kinden (1944) To Take Over Kodensha (1948) At HUGE UNBELIEVABLE AMAZING Price (¥11,501)

Large electrical equipment construction co Kinden is buying smaller 'rival' owned by an industrial electric co. This was flagged to the market and...

Travis Lundy

Nintendo (7974 JP): The Current Playbook

The offering, which was reduced due to the ToSTNeT-3 repurchase, will likely be priced on 9 March. The average large Japanese placement tends to...

Arun George

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Feb 27th): Rakuten Bank, Lasertec, Disco, Kandenko, Toho, SoftBank

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Rakuten Bank, Lasertec, Disco, Kandenko, Toho, SoftBank,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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