Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

As discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-kansai-super-9919-conundrum" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:57564" rel="noopener">The Kansai Super (9919) Conundrum</a> seven weeks ago, the fact that shareholders got excited about a possible OK Corporation alternate bid to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kansai-super-market-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15519:1" rel="noopener">Kansai Super Market (9919 JP)</a> deal with its top shareholder (10.02% of shares out) <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/h2o-retailing-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17562:1" rel="noopener">H2 O Retailing (8242 JP)</a> which would merge its Hankyu Oasis unit in return for control, it didn't mean that Kansai Super shareholders would get a good result.I recommended selling Kansai Super.  I had gone into some detail about the shareholder structure to suggest that defeating the EGM proposal for the merger was tougher than it looked.<ul>
<li>The Kansai Super/Hankyu Oasis deal meant Kansai Super gets bigger, gets more revenue, etc, and Hankyu/H2O gets more shares.</li>
<li>There were no explicit terms and/or opportunity for Kansai Super shareholders to sell into an H2O offer so they could not directly compare it to OK Super's proposed ¥2,250/share/share offer which meant that all shareholders could do is look at the market price. </li>
</ul>The shares traded at that price and just 5% below for the next 4+ weeks, then dipped slightly into the EGM date on 29 October. <section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/239/140/original/Screenshot+2021-11-02+at+11.25.22+AM.png?1635823538" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="239140"></figure></section>Retailing expert <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/michael-causton" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Michael Causton</a>wrote about the situation in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/h2o-retailing-and-ok-super-which-is-the-better-owner-of-kansai-supermarket" target="_blank" rel="noopener">H2O Retailing and OK Super: Which Is the Better Owner of Kansai Supermarket?</a> on 23 October, just a week before the EGM, noting that OK Super offered a better platform for growth. OK Super had come out with an interview touting its proposal on the 20th. OPK Super sounded much more friendly than it initially had. Kansai Super for its part came out with another FAQ on the situation. It did not colour the interactions the same way. On Friday, Kansai Super <a href="http://www.kansaisuper.co.jp/upimages/irinfo/irnews_651.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> (Japanese only) that the EGM had passed the Share Exchange proposal and all related proposals related to later absorption mergers and changes of director. The shares dropped 32% in two days to today's ¥1,258/share. Now what?

As discussed in The Kansai Super (9919) Conundrum seven weeks ago, the fact that shareholders got excited about a possible OK Corporation alternate bid to the Kansai Super Market (9919 JP) deal with its top shareholder (10.02% of shares out) H2 O Retailing (8242 JP) which would merge its Hankyu Oasis unit in return for control, it didn't mean that Kansai Super shareholders would get a good result.I recommended selling Kansai Super.  I had gone into some detail about the shareholder structure to suggest that defeating the EGM proposal for the merger was tougher than it looked.
The Kansai Super/Hankyu Oasis deal meant Kansai Super gets bigger, gets more revenue, etc, and Hankyu/H2O gets more shares.
There were no explicit terms and/or opportunity for Kansai Super shareholders to sell into an H2O offer so they could not directly compare it to OK Super's proposed ¥2,250/share/share offer which meant that all shareholders could do is look at the market price. 
The shares traded at that price and just 5% below for the next 4+ weeks, then dipped slightly into the EGM date on 29 October. Retailing expert Michael Caustonwrote about the situation in H2O Retailing and OK Super: Which Is the Better Owner of Kansai Supermarket? on 23 October, just a week before the EGM, noting that OK Super offered a better platform for growth. OK Super had come out with an interview touting its proposal on the 20th. OPK Super sounded much more friendly than it initially had. Kansai Super for its part came out with another FAQ on the situation. It did not colour the interactions the same way. On Friday, Kansai Super announced (Japanese only) that the EGM had passed the Share Exchange proposal and all related proposals related to later absorption mergers and changes of director. The shares dropped 32% in two days to today's ¥1,258/share. Now what?

Kansai Super (9919) Still Not Super as Shareholders Agree H2O Deal

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/h2o-retailing-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17562:1" rel="noopener">H2 O Retailing (8242 JP)</a>, the biggest retail group in Kansai, announced in late August that it would expand its share in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kansai-super-market-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15519:1" rel="noopener">Kansai Super Market (9919 JP)</a> to take a majority stake. As is usual, the announcement was made with full understanding and acceptance by Kansai Supermarket’s board and CEO, but things have not gone according to plan. We now face another situation where existing shareholders object to a cosy, pre-agreed takeover. In this case, the company objecting is OK Super, the perennially successful Tokyo-based discount supermarket.OK Super would, in our opinion, offer the best growth longer term given its operational excellence, low price positioning and massive pent-up Japanese consumer demand for lower prices. Last year, OK Super broke ¥508 billion in sales for the first time, making it a top four chain, and achieved operating profits of ¥37.8 billion. In contrast, Kansai Super sales were ¥130.9 billion, with operating profits of ¥2.7 billion.Whereas Kansai Super largely represents past supermarket success, OK is the present and future and the prospect of OK entering the Kansai market would represent a serious threat to existing chains, not least H2O’s own.

H2 O Retailing (8242 JP), the biggest retail group in Kansai, announced in late August that it would expand its share in Kansai Super Market (9919 JP) to take a majority stake. As is usual, the announcement was made with full understanding and acceptance by Kansai Supermarket’s board and CEO, but things have not gone according to plan. We now face another situation where existing shareholders object to a cosy, pre-agreed takeover. In this case, the company objecting is OK Super, the perennially successful Tokyo-based discount supermarket.OK Super would, in our opinion, offer the best growth longer term given its operational excellence, low price positioning and massive pent-up Japanese consumer demand for lower prices. Last year, OK Super broke ¥508 billion in sales for the first time, making it a top four chain, and achieved operating profits of ¥37.8 billion. In contrast, Kansai Super sales were ¥130.9 billion, with operating profits of ¥2.7 billion.Whereas Kansai Super largely represents past supermarket success, OK is the present and future and the prospect of OK entering the Kansai market would represent a serious threat to existing chains, not least H2O’s own.

H2O Retailing and OK Super: Which Is the Better Owner of Kansai Supermarket?

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

FY2020 was clearly a year when department store executives would have been better to live in an induced coma. Big city stores suffered especially because inbound tourists, their main growth driver of the past few years, disappeared and local shoppers stayed away, although some stores did manage to harness support from Japan’s expanding wealth market to offset the rout a little bit. The good news is that executives pushing for change in the last five years in the face of perennial intransigence are increasingly taking charge and the result should be a leaner, smaller and more clearly defined format that is more overtly upscale.

FY2020 was clearly a year when department store executives would have been better to live in an induced coma. Big city stores suffered especially because inbound tourists, their main growth driver of the past few years, disappeared and local shoppers stayed away, although some stores did manage to harness support from Japan’s expanding wealth market to offset the rout a little bit. The good news is that executives pushing for change in the last five years in the face of perennial intransigence are increasingly taking charge and the result should be a leaner, smaller and more clearly defined format that is more overtly upscale.

Japan's Department Stores: Radical Contraction Still to Come if Sector Is to Survive

On 31 August, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kansai-super-market-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15519:1" rel="noopener">Kansai Super Market (9919 JP)</a> and its top shareholder (10.02% of shares out) <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/h2o-retailing-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17562:1" rel="noopener">H2 O Retailing (8242 JP)</a> (the parent of Hanshin Department Store and related companies) <a href="https://data.swcms.net/file/h2o-retailing/ja/news/auto_20210830491858/pdfFile.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a business merger whereby the H₂O would inject two supermarket businesses it owns - Izumiya and Hankyu Oasis - into a holding company with Kansai Super, receiving shares in a newly enlarged Kansai Super in exchange. H₂O would go from owning 10.66% to owning 58% of Kansai Super, and the 89.34% would own 42% of NEWCO. The merger was short-dated/accelerated, with the EGM to vote on this deal set for a Record Date on 15 September, the EGMs of all the related companies where an EGM was necessary (Kansai Super, Hankyu Oasis, and Izumiya (the latter two foregone conclusions because they are 100%-owned by H₂O) on 29 October, and the merger effective December 1st.The shares popped a bit, then fell back. At first glance, this seemed somewhat opportunistic for H₂O, and it meant that the 89.34% "minority" in Kansai Super would become a real minority without getting paid a premium or provided a chance to exit. Based on the net assets of the companies, it seemed like H₂O was getting a good deal. Based on the OP levels in the past year, it did not seem like H₂O was getting special treatment. A couple of days later, on 3 September, privately-held discount ("every day low price") supermarket chain OK Corp (primarily based in the Kanto area, but which had been aimed at expanding into the Kansai area), which was the second-largest single shareholder of Kansai Super (based originally in Osaka/Kansai) at 7.23%, stepped up and offered a <a href="https://ok-corporation.jp/media/001/202109/20210903_%E3%83%97%E3%83%AC%E3%82%B9%E3%83%AA%E3%83%AA%E3%83%BC%E3%82%B9.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">press release</a> which said that it would vote against the merger and if the merger were not approved, it would be willing to launch a Tender Offer to buy the shares of Kansai Super at ¥2,250/share (the highest price since listing and nearly vs ¥1,374/share the day before, and more than double the market price of Kansai Super in June when the proposal was made). On 3 Sep OK complained about their treatment, and noted that from the perspective of shareholder interest, their bid should be considered, but OK also had no intention of launching a hostile bid.The shares popped, moving limit up. Then limit up another day, and then the shares traded at JPY 2,200/share in considerable volume before drifting lower.<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/229/527/original/Screenshot+2021-09-13+at+8.10.54+PM.png?1631535065" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="229527"></figure></section>Today the shares fell back 7+% to just below JPY 2,000/share. There is some very long history between the founder of OK and Yuji Kitano the founder of Kansai Super, and they once worked together, with OK seconding employees to Kansai Super to learn the business of fresh grocery sales. Mr Kitano passed away in 2013, and OK Supermarket started buying shares in 2016, getting to just under 5%, then it peaked its head above and by the end of the fiscal year in February, owned 7.23%. Of course, that year in October (2016), Kansai Super entered into a business and capital alliance with H₂O Retailing, and H₂O bought about 10% of the shares out. Fast forward five years and it turns out that OK approached Kansai Super in April 2021, and proposed a capital and business alliance on 9 June, in writing. Kansai Super put this to an Independent Committee which then took its time, setting its first meeting with OK some 11 weeks later on 26 August. The Kansai Super <a href="http://www.kansaisuper.co.jp/upimages/irinfo/irnews_629.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">release</a> (Japanese only) on 31 August suggests there was a "third party tender offer approach" but then doesn't discuss it much while saying that intense discussions and due diligence was afforded to H₂O Retailing in the same timeframe.Five days after the first interview with OK, Kansai Super and H₂O announced their deal. This is a complicated deal and it begs the question of whether shareholder interests matter and how shareholders decide. More discussion below.

On 31 August, Kansai Super Market (9919 JP) and its top shareholder (10.02% of shares out) H2 O Retailing (8242 JP) (the parent of Hanshin Department Store and related companies) announced a business merger whereby the H₂O would inject two supermarket businesses it owns - Izumiya and Hankyu Oasis - into a holding company with Kansai Super, receiving shares in a newly enlarged Kansai Super in exchange. H₂O would go from owning 10.66% to owning 58% of Kansai Super, and the 89.34% would own 42% of NEWCO. The merger was short-dated/accelerated, with the EGM to vote on this deal set for a Record Date on 15 September, the EGMs of all the related companies where an EGM was necessary (Kansai Super, Hankyu Oasis, and Izumiya (the latter two foregone conclusions because they are 100%-owned by H₂O) on 29 October, and the merger effective December 1st.The shares popped a bit, then fell back. At first glance, this seemed somewhat opportunistic for H₂O, and it meant that the 89.34% "minority" in Kansai Super would become a real minority without getting paid a premium or provided a chance to exit. Based on the net assets of the companies, it seemed like H₂O was getting a good deal. Based on the OP levels in the past year, it did not seem like H₂O was getting special treatment. A couple of days later, on 3 September, privately-held discount ("every day low price") supermarket chain OK Corp (primarily based in the Kanto area, but which had been aimed at expanding into the Kansai area), which was the second-largest single shareholder of Kansai Super (based originally in Osaka/Kansai) at 7.23%, stepped up and offered a press release which said that it would vote against the merger and if the merger were not approved, it would be willing to launch a Tender Offer to buy the shares of Kansai Super at ¥2,250/share (the highest price since listing and nearly vs ¥1,374/share the day before, and more than double the market price of Kansai Super in June when the proposal was made). On 3 Sep OK complained about their treatment, and noted that from the perspective of shareholder interest, their bid should be considered, but OK also had no intention of launching a hostile bid.The shares popped, moving limit up. Then limit up another day, and then the shares traded at JPY 2,200/share in considerable volume before drifting lower.Today the shares fell back 7+% to just below JPY 2,000/share. There is some very long history between the founder of OK and Yuji Kitano the founder of Kansai Super, and they once worked together, with OK seconding employees to Kansai Super to learn the business of fresh grocery sales. Mr Kitano passed away in 2013, and OK Supermarket started buying shares in 2016, getting to just under 5%, then it peaked its head above and by the end of the fiscal year in February, owned 7.23%. Of course, that year in October (2016), Kansai Super entered into a business and capital alliance with H₂O Retailing, and H₂O bought about 10% of the shares out. Fast forward five years and it turns out that OK approached Kansai Super in April 2021, and proposed a capital and business alliance on 9 June, in writing. Kansai Super put this to an Independent Committee which then took its time, setting its first meeting with OK some 11 weeks later on 26 August. The Kansai Super release (Japanese only) on 31 August suggests there was a "third party tender offer approach" but then doesn't discuss it much while saying that intense discussions and due diligence was afforded to H₂O Retailing in the same timeframe.Five days after the first interview with OK, Kansai Super and H₂O announced their deal. This is a complicated deal and it begs the question of whether shareholder interests matter and how shareholders decide. More discussion below. 

David Blennerhassett

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This insight provides a quick summary of gross/annualised (where possible) spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and how those spreads have changed over the last week; plus the next hard events over the coming weeks.
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I number 37, mostly firm, deals around the region.
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More below the fold.
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This insight provides a quick summary of gross/annualised (where possible) spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and how those spreads have changed over the last week; plus the next hard events over the coming weeks.


I number 37, mostly firm, deals around the region.


More below the fold.


Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Summary: China Logistics, Kerry Logistics, China Youzan

Japan

KANSAI SUPER MARKET LTD. is a food supermarket chain operator which mainly deals in foodstuffs, daily products, and miscellaneous goods.  The Company has markets in Hyogo and Osaka areas.

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Kansai Super Market (9919 JP)

Kansai Super (9919) Still Not Super as Shareholders Agree H2O Deal

Kansai Super (9919) shareholders approve the H2O deal to merge with Hankyu Oasis and Izumiya in return for 58% dilution. Comparatively, a bad deal...

Travis Lundy

H2O Retailing and OK Super: Which Is the Better Owner of Kansai Supermarket?

Kansai Super is the prize in a bidding war between H2O Retailing and OK Super. While the former would use Kansai to consolidate market share, a...

Michael Causton

Japan's Department Stores: Radical Contraction Still to Come if Sector Is to Survive

Japan's department stores are in trouble and were well before the pandemic but their outlook is much worse now. Major changes are required, not...

Michael Causton

The Kansai Super (9919) Conundrum

Kansai Super has Two Suitors - H2O Retailing and Kansai Super have ironed out a deal, and OK Corp objects. This creates a conundrum. But solving it...

Travis Lundy

Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Summary: China Logistics, Kerry Logistics, China Youzan

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)