Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Mega cap tech stocks rarely underperform the market to the same extent as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a> during the last seven months, especially with no deterioration in earnings growth potential.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/217/249/original/image_11147906721625671618744.png?1625671621" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="217249"></figure><div class="content-caption"><em>Source: Cap IQ</em></div><p>After trading sideways during May/June 2021, technicals were pointing the right way for the very first time for Alibaba in 2021.</p><p>The stock rallied by 10% in the last week of June to $229.4 per share, causing most of us to assume that Alibaba was making a comeback.</p><p>Unfortunately, the joy lasted just a short time, as Xi Jinping’s government went back on the offence with a broadened crackdown on tech platforms, especially the US-listed Chinese tech companies like the recent ride sharing IPO <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/didi-chuxing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27467:1" rel="noopener">DiDi Chuxing (DIDI US)</a>.</p><p>After underperforming the S&amp;P for almost seven months, most Chinese technology stocks, especially Alibaba, seem very cheap, but it is not cheap enough to call it a bottom amidst ongoing regulatory crackdowns and the geopolitical rivalry between the US and China. As such, we would not rush to buy any dips and recommend that we wait till the rally well and truly begins.</p>

Mega cap tech stocks rarely underperform the market to the same extent as Alibaba Group (9988 HK) during the last seven months, especially with no deterioration in earnings growth potential.Source: Cap IQAfter trading sideways during May/June 2021, technicals were pointing the right way for the very first time for Alibaba in 2021.The stock rallied by 10% in the last week of June to $229.4 per share, causing most of us to assume that Alibaba was making a comeback.Unfortunately, the joy lasted just a short time, as Xi Jinping’s government went back on the offence with a broadened crackdown on tech platforms, especially the US-listed Chinese tech companies like the recent ride sharing IPO DiDi Chuxing (DIDI US).After underperforming the S&amp;P for almost seven months, most Chinese technology stocks, especially Alibaba, seem very cheap, but it is not cheap enough to call it a bottom amidst ongoing regulatory crackdowns and the geopolitical rivalry between the US and China. As such, we would not rush to buy any dips and recommend that we wait till the rally well and truly begins.

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<p>In our previous note <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-kanzhun-full-truck-and-didi-regulators-sending-a-message" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China ADRs - Kanzhun, Full Truck and Didi - Regulators Sending a Message,</a> we spoke about the recent crackdown on the three US listed firms. Since then more news has been coming in along the same theme of a general crackdown on overseas listings for Chinese companies. </p>
<div>
<p>We have looked at the ADRs in the past, in our previous notes:</p>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-secondary-listing-deep-dive-yin-and-yang" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China ADRs Secondary Listing Deep-Dive: Yin and Yang,</a> published in Feb 2020,  we looked at the background and rules around undertaking a secondary listing in Hong Kong and then came up with a short-list of companies that might undertake a secondary listing. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-secondary-listing-covid-19-has-increased-the-tension-but-narrowed-the-short-list" target="_blank" rel="noopener">In China ADRs Secondary Listing: COVID-19 Has Increased the Tension but Narrowed the Short List</a> published in May 2020, we looked at the recent developments and provided an revised short-list</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-secondary-listing-holding-foreign-companies-accountable-act-i-m-coming-home" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China ADRs Secondary Listing - Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act - I’m Coming Home</a>, published in May 2020, we spoke about the implication of the act which had made its way through the senate.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-secondary-listing-pipeline-looks-rich-have-three-years-to-move" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China ADRs Secondary Listing - Pipeline Looks Rich, Have Three Years to Move</a>, published in Feb 2021 we looked at the ADR pipeline and spoke about the updates from the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act becoming law and the updates at Hong Kong end as well. </li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-sec-notice-instead-of-three-probably-have-four-years-till-2025-correction-overdone" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China ADRs - SEC Notice - Instead of Three, Probably Have Four Years till 2025 - Correction Overdone, </a> we spoke about the new SEC notice and its implications. </li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-a-new-act-aims-to-put-an-end-to-china-adr-ipos" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China ADRs - A New Act Aims to Put an End to China ADR IPOs</a>, we spoke about the No IPOs for Unaccountable Actors Act, which aims to prohibit IPO on U.S. exchanges for Chinese companies. </li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<p>In this note, we'll talk about the implications of the recent China regulatory announcements.</p>
</div>

In our previous note China ADRs - Kanzhun, Full Truck and Didi - Regulators Sending a Message, we spoke about the recent crackdown on the three US listed firms. Since then more news has been coming in along the same theme of a general crackdown on overseas listings for Chinese companies. 

We have looked at the ADRs in the past, in our previous notes:




China ADRs Secondary Listing Deep-Dive: Yin and Yang, published in Feb 2020,  we looked at the background and rules around undertaking a secondary listing in Hong Kong and then came up with a short-list of companies that might undertake a secondary listing. 

In China ADRs Secondary Listing: COVID-19 Has Increased the Tension but Narrowed the Short List published in May 2020, we looked at the recent developments and provided an revised short-list
In China ADRs Secondary Listing - Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act - I’m Coming Home, published in May 2020, we spoke about the implication of the act which had made its way through the senate.
In China ADRs Secondary Listing - Pipeline Looks Rich, Have Three Years to Move, published in Feb 2021 we looked at the ADR pipeline and spoke about the updates from the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act becoming law and the updates at Hong Kong end as well. 
In China ADRs - SEC Notice - Instead of Three, Probably Have Four Years till 2025 - Correction Overdone,  we spoke about the new SEC notice and its implications. 
In China ADRs - A New Act Aims to Put an End to China ADR IPOs, we spoke about the No IPOs for Unaccountable Actors Act, which aims to prohibit IPO on U.S. exchanges for Chinese companies. 



In this note, we'll talk about the implications of the recent China regulatory announcements.


China ADRs - Now the Message Is Loud and Getting Clearer

<p>Daojia Limited (DL), one of the largest one-stop home services platforms in China, aims to raise at least US$300m in its US IPO, which now may or may not happen. The company is backed by 58.com and Baba.</p><p>DL operates Swan Daojia, a platform where it offers multiple services across categories such as maternity nurse, nanny, housekeeping services, along with training services and SaaS-based solutions.</p>

Daojia Limited (DL), one of the largest one-stop home services platforms in China, aims to raise at least US$300m in its US IPO, which now may or may not happen. The company is backed by 58.com and Baba.DL operates Swan Daojia, a platform where it offers multiple services across categories such as maternity nurse, nanny, housekeeping services, along with training services and SaaS-based solutions.

Daojia Pre-IPO - Can’t Pinpoint the True Growth

<div>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xpeng-motors" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29217:1" rel="noopener">Xpeng Motors (XPEV US)</a> raised around US$2bn via a listing in Hong Kong. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics and the updates since our last note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/xpeng-motors-hk-listing-will-probably-be-hot-given-strong-momentum-but-past-deal-didn-t-do-well" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Xpeng Motors HK Listing - Will Probably Be Hot Given Strong Momentum but past Deal Didn’t Do Well.</a></p>
</div>
<div>
<p>We have covered the IPO in:</p>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/xpeng-motors-pre-ipo-lots-to-like-with-solid-backing-from-investors" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42126" rel="noopener">Xpeng Motors (小鹏汽车) Pre-IPO - Lots to like with Solid Backing from Investors</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/xpeng-motors-visited-a-store-fairly-priced-but-with-recharging-problem" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42283" rel="noopener">Xpeng Motors (小鹏汽车): Visited a Store, Fairly Priced, But with Recharging Problem</a> </li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/xpeng-motors-pre-ipo-car-comparison-and-p7-performance-test" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42386" rel="noopener">Xpeng Motors (小鹏汽车) Pre-IPO - Car Comparison and P7 Performance Test</a></li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/xpeng-motors-pre-ipo-peer-comparison-and-valuation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42389" rel="noopener">Xpeng Motors (小鹏汽车) Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison and Valuation</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/xpeng-ipo-riding-the-momentum" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42503" rel="noopener">Xpeng Motors (小鹏汽车) IPO - Riding the Momentum</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/xpeng-motors-trading-nio-leading-the-charge" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42616" rel="noopener">Xpeng Motors (小鹏汽车) Trading - NIO Leading the Charge</a> </li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<p>And the previous placement in:</p>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/xpeng-motors-placement-level-the-playing-field" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Xpeng Motors (小鹏汽车) Placement - Level the Playing Field</a></li>
</ul>
</div>


Xpeng Motors (XPEV US) raised around US$2bn via a listing in Hong Kong. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics and the updates since our last note, Xpeng Motors HK Listing - Will Probably Be Hot Given Strong Momentum but past Deal Didn’t Do Well.


We have covered the IPO in:




Xpeng Motors (小鹏汽车) Pre-IPO - Lots to like with Solid Backing from Investors 

Xpeng Motors (小鹏汽车): Visited a Store, Fairly Priced, But with Recharging Problem 
Xpeng Motors (小鹏汽车) Pre-IPO - Car Comparison and P7 Performance Test

Xpeng Motors (小鹏汽车) Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison and Valuation 

Xpeng Motors (小鹏汽车) IPO - Riding the Momentum 

Xpeng Motors (小鹏汽车) Trading - NIO Leading the Charge 



And the previous placement in:



Xpeng Motors (小鹏汽车) Placement - Level the Playing Field



Xpeng Motors HK Trading - More Hot with Instis that Retail

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Event-Driven

<p>The Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC) said today (Monday, 05<sup>th</sup> July) that it is investigating the online recruitment platform Zhipin.com as a measure to tighten regulations on data security and safeguard national security.</p><p>The online recruitment platform Zhipin.com is owned by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kanzhun-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33368:1" rel="noopener">Kanzhun (BZ US)</a>  and CAC had ordered Kanzhun to halt registration of new users until the Cyberspace review is over. In addition to probing the country’s internet giants over their monopolistic practices, China has been serious about tightening regulations on data security.</p><p>CAC announced on Friday that it was investigating the ride hailing giant Didi’s app over any potential violation of the country’s data protection laws, and within two days of the above announcement, CAC ordered Didi to remove its ride hailing app from smartphone app stores and make changes to comply with the regulations.</p><p>The Chinese online recruitment platform Kanzhun raised around US$912m at its IPO in the US in June, pricing its shares at the upper end of its IPO price range of US$19 per ADS. In this insight, we present our trading strategy for Kanzhun as it deals with the ongoing CAC investigation of its Zhipin.com app.</p>

The Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC) said today (Monday, 05th July) that it is investigating the online recruitment platform Zhipin.com as a measure to tighten regulations on data security and safeguard national security.The online recruitment platform Zhipin.com is owned by Kanzhun (BZ US)  and CAC had ordered Kanzhun to halt registration of new users until the Cyberspace review is over. In addition to probing the country’s internet giants over their monopolistic practices, China has been serious about tightening regulations on data security.CAC announced on Friday that it was investigating the ride hailing giant Didi’s app over any potential violation of the country’s data protection laws, and within two days of the above announcement, CAC ordered Didi to remove its ride hailing app from smartphone app stores and make changes to comply with the regulations.The Chinese online recruitment platform Kanzhun raised around US$912m at its IPO in the US in June, pricing its shares at the upper end of its IPO price range of US$19 per ADS. In this insight, we present our trading strategy for Kanzhun as it deals with the ongoing CAC investigation of its Zhipin.com app.

Kanzhun Trading Update: Take Profits Before Cyberspace Watchdog Imposes Another App Ban

China

Kanzhun Limited provides online recruitment services. The Company connects job seekers and enterprise users through its mobile application. Kanzhun offers a mobile-native product that promotes instant direct chats between enterprise users and job seekers.

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Kanzhun (BZ US)

Alibaba: Still Too Risky to Own

Mega cap tech stocks rarely underperform the market to the same extent as Alibaba during the last seven months, especially with no deterioration in...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

China ADRs - Now the Message Is Loud and Getting Clearer

In our previous note we spoke about the recent crackdown on the three US listed firms. Since then more news has been coming in along the same theme...

Sumeet Singh

Daojia Pre-IPO - Can’t Pinpoint the True Growth

Daojia Limited (DL), one of the largest one-stop home services platforms in China, aims to raise US$300m in its US IPO, which now may or may not...

Sumeet Singh

Xpeng Motors HK Trading - More Hot with Instis that Retail

Xpeng Motors (XPEV US) raised around US$2bn via a listing in Hong Kong. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics and the updates since...

Sumeet Singh

Kanzhun Trading Update: Take Profits Before Cyberspace Watchdog Imposes Another App Ban

Though we like Kanzhun for its strong growth prospects, we would recommend exiting at the current share price as we see more downside risks than...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

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