Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Given Trump’s overhaul of US economy and world trade, US interest rate may stay high and Renminbi might depreciate further, both negative for our sectors from a foreign investor perspective;</li>
<li>We expect China to respond strongly to Trump Tariff 2.0, which will necessitate bigger stimulus, leading to a scenario of a policy overdose;</li>
<li>We look for: (1) high dividend yield, (2) US-dollar exposure, (3) policy overdose in stock selection. We add TRIP and ATAT to our DMC and reiterate our MMC  portfolios</li>
</ul>


Given Trump’s overhaul of US economy and world trade, US interest rate may stay high and Renminbi might depreciate further, both negative for our sectors from a foreign investor perspective;
We expect China to respond strongly to Trump Tariff 2.0, which will necessitate bigger stimulus, leading to a scenario of a policy overdose;
We look for: (1) high dividend yield, (2) US-dollar exposure, (3) policy overdose in stock selection. We add TRIP and ATAT to our DMC and reiterate our MMC  portfolios


Invest in China Growth Equity in High-Rate Environment

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>NEV retail volume increased by 51% YoY in November and 41% YoY for first eleven months.</li>
<li>Jiyue Auto, as a car maker subsidiary of Baidu, is dismissing employees.</li>
<li>Hisense, a home appliance producer, lays off 30,000 employees of its total 110,000.</li>
</ul>


NEV retail volume increased by 51% YoY in November and 41% YoY for first eleven months.
Jiyue Auto, as a car maker subsidiary of Baidu, is dismissing employees.
Hisense, a home appliance producer, lays off 30,000 employees of its total 110,000.


China Consumption Weekly (16 Dec 2024): NEV Industry Nov., Baidu, Hisense, Boss Zhipin,

<ul>
<li>BEKE US: Property Transactions Remained Strong in November, with Accelerated Growth in the Final Week.(+)</li>
<li>BZ US/3690 HK/TCOM US/ATAT US: Manufacturing PMI Slightly Exceeds Consensus in November, While Service PMI Falls Below; Hiring Intentions Remain Low.(-/-/-/-)</li>
<li>ZTO US/ BABA US/VIPS US: China parcel volume delivery grew 40% yoy in the prior week (+/+/+)</li>
</ul>


BEKE US: Property Transactions Remained Strong in November, with Accelerated Growth in the Final Week.(+)
BZ US/3690 HK/TCOM US/ATAT US: Manufacturing PMI Slightly Exceeds Consensus in November, While Service PMI Falls Below; Hiring Intentions Remain Low.(-/-/-/-)
ZTO US/ BABA US/VIPS US: China parcel volume delivery grew 40% yoy in the prior week (+/+/+)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:BEKE US/BZ US/3690 HK/TCOM US/ATAT US/ZTO US/ BABA US/VIPS US

<ul>
<li>Kanzhun, along with Kuaishou, Beike and PDD, are we call the “Macro Mauled Champions” (MMC). We suggest long term investors to accumulate;</li>
<li>Weak industrial sector earnings in October bodes ill for manufacturing hiring into C4Q24 and we think may further extend to early 2025 recruiting season;</li>
<li>We expect BZ to grow profit faster than revenues on cost savings, particularly on marketing and gain shares. We cut the TP from US$19 to US$17. </li>
</ul>


Kanzhun, along with Kuaishou, Beike and PDD, are we call the “Macro Mauled Champions” (MMC). We suggest long term investors to accumulate;
Weak industrial sector earnings in October bodes ill for manufacturing hiring into C4Q24 and we think may further extend to early 2025 recruiting season;
We expect BZ to grow profit faster than revenues on cost savings, particularly on marketing and gain shares. We cut the TP from US$19 to US$17. 


[Kanzhun Ltd. (BZ US, BUY, TP US$17) Target Price Change]: Mark Down C4Q24 and 2025 on Weak Demand

<ul>
<li>While Trump's sweeping wins in presidential, senate and house, and supreme court earlier gave him unprecedented mandate to reform the US economy, his agenda is unrealistic to begin with; </li>
<li>ADS/Electrification, GAI/renewable/employment, (3) inflation/trade/ immigration are just three that the Trump Administration will likely backpedal.  Execution of Trump's economic agenda requires perfect coordination which is tough to pull off</li>
<li>For a short term trade, we recommend PDD and BYD. We also like Xiaomi. Consumption stocks can benefit from stimulus package from the Chinese government.</li>
</ul>


While Trump's sweeping wins in presidential, senate and house, and supreme court earlier gave him unprecedented mandate to reform the US economy, his agenda is unrealistic to begin with; 
ADS/Electrification, GAI/renewable/employment, (3) inflation/trade/ immigration are just three that the Trump Administration will likely backpedal.  Execution of Trump's economic agenda requires perfect coordination which is tough to pull off
For a short term trade, we recommend PDD and BYD. We also like Xiaomi. Consumption stocks can benefit from stimulus package from the Chinese government.


What Trump Can and Cannot Accomplish in His 2nd Term

China

Kanzhun Limited provides online recruitment services. The Company connects job seekers and enterprise users through its mobile application. Kanzhun offers a mobile-native product that promotes instant direct chats between enterprise users and job seekers.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Kanzhun (BZ US)

Invest in China Growth Equity in High-Rate Environment

Trump's policies may lead to high US interest rates and a depreciating Renminbi. As remedy outside of buying high dividend stocks, we propose a...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Consumption Weekly (16 Dec 2024): NEV Industry Nov., Baidu, Hisense, Boss Zhipin,

NEV retail volume increased by 51% YoY in November. Jiyue Auto, as a subsidiary of Baidu, is dismissing employees. Hisense, a home appliance...

Ming Lu

[Blue Lotus Daily]:BEKE US/BZ US/3690 HK/TCOM US/ATAT US/ZTO US/ BABA US/VIPS US

Property transactions in the US remained strong in November, with accelerated growth in the final week. Manufacturing PMI slightly exceeds...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Kanzhun Ltd. (BZ US, BUY, TP US$17) Target Price Change]: Mark Down C4Q24 and 2025 on Weak Demand

Investors advised to accumulate Kanzhun, weak industrial sector earnings may impact manufacturing hiring into early 2025, BZ expected to grow...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

What Trump Can and Cannot Accomplish in His 2nd Term

Trump's ambitious economic agenda faces challenges and backpedaling. We see energy electrification, GAI power demand and inflation/immigration...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Invest in China Growth Equity in High-Rate Environment

​Trump's policies may lead to high US interest rates and a depreciating Renminbi. As remedy outside of buying high dividend stocks, we propose a...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Consumption Weekly (16 Dec 2024): NEV Industry Nov., Baidu, Hisense, Boss Zhipin,

NEV retail volume increased by 51% YoY in November. Jiyue Auto, as a subsidiary of Baidu, is dismissing employees. Hisense, a home appliance...

Ming Lu

[Blue Lotus Daily]:BEKE US/BZ US/3690 HK/TCOM US/ATAT US/ZTO US/ BABA US/VIPS US

​Property transactions in the US remained strong in November, with accelerated growth in the final week. Manufacturing PMI slightly exceeds...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Kanzhun Ltd. (BZ US, BUY, TP US$17) Target Price Change]: Mark Down C4Q24 and 2025 on Weak Demand

​Investors advised to accumulate Kanzhun, weak industrial sector earnings may impact manufacturing hiring into early 2025, BZ expected to grow...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

What Trump Can and Cannot Accomplish in His 2nd Term

​Trump's ambitious economic agenda faces challenges and backpedaling. We see energy electrification, GAI power demand and inflation/immigration...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Trump's policies may lead to high US interest rates and a depreciating Renminbi. As remedy outside of buying high dividend stocks, we propose a...

Property transactions in the US remained strong in November, with accelerated growth in the final week. Manufacturing PMI slightly exceeds...

Investors advised to accumulate Kanzhun, weak industrial sector earnings may impact manufacturing hiring into early 2025, BZ expected to grow...

Trump's ambitious economic agenda faces challenges and backpedaling. We see energy electrification, GAI power demand and inflation/immigration...