Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>ZTO US: Parcel volume remains strong in first week of Double 11 sales(+)</li>
<li>ZTO US: New single day parcel volume record achieved at start of Double 11 (+)</li>
<li>2618 HK: Cainiao delivery integrated on the JD platform. (/)</li>
</ul>


ZTO US: Parcel volume remains strong in first week of Double 11 sales(+)
ZTO US: New single day parcel volume record achieved at start of Double 11 (+)
2618 HK: Cainiao delivery integrated on the JD platform. (/)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:ZTO/2618HK/NIU/603529CH/1585HK/MNSO/300750CH/1211HK/ZLAB/BZ/1810HK/AAPL/NIO/XPEV

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We expect BZ to report C3Q24 cash billing to decline 5% QoQ, 3.0% below consensus. We, however, expect non-GAAP net income to be 13% above consensus</li>
<li>September job creation worsened over July and August, which showed job market recovery is still nowhere in sight;</li>
<li>We keep rating and TP unchanged. Trading at 15x 2025 PE in 2025, we expect BZ to grow non-GAAP EBIT at a 3Yr CAGR of 24%.</li>
</ul>


We expect BZ to report C3Q24 cash billing to decline 5% QoQ, 3.0% below consensus. We, however, expect non-GAAP net income to be 13% above consensus
September job creation worsened over July and August, which showed job market recovery is still nowhere in sight;
We keep rating and TP unchanged. Trading at 15x 2025 PE in 2025, we expect BZ to grow non-GAAP EBIT at a 3Yr CAGR of 24%.


[Kanzhun Ltd. (BZ US, BUY, TP US$19) Earnings Preview]: Recovery Is Far Away but Execution Is Solid

<ul>
<li>BEKE US/BZ US/ATAT US/3690 HK/TCOM US:September Politburo Meeting Unusually Discusses Economic Topics, bodes well for catering and tourism consumption, Employment, and Real Estate(+)</li>
<li>2618 HK/002352 CH: JD and Alibaba reconcile, JD Logistics to launch on Taobao and Alipay to launch on JD.com (+/-)</li>
<li>NIO US: NIO Lowers Battery Swap Service Fees to Encourage Frequent Battery Swaps(-)</li>
</ul>


BEKE US/BZ US/ATAT US/3690 HK/TCOM US:September Politburo Meeting Unusually Discusses Economic Topics, bodes well for catering and tourism consumption, Employment, and Real Estate(+)
2618 HK/002352 CH: JD and Alibaba reconcile, JD Logistics to launch on Taobao and Alipay to launch on JD.com (+/-)
NIO US: NIO Lowers Battery Swap Service Fees to Encourage Frequent Battery Swaps(-)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:BEKE US/BZ US/ATAT US/3690 HK/TCOM US/2618 HK/002352 CH/NIO US/XPEV US/1211 HK

<ul>
<li>Kanzhun Limited (BZ) reported C2Q24 revenue in-line with both our estimate and consensus, non-GAAP net income beat both our estimate and consensus by a slim margin. </li>
<li>Despite the soft macro-affected guidance as BZ continued gaining market share, the company is still guiding for nearly 20% YoY growth;</li>
<li>We keep TP unchanged at US$19/ADS and keep the BUY rating. BZ has a PEG of 0.5.</li>
</ul>


Kanzhun Limited (BZ) reported C2Q24 revenue in-line with both our estimate and consensus, non-GAAP net income beat both our estimate and consensus by a slim margin. 
Despite the soft macro-affected guidance as BZ continued gaining market share, the company is still guiding for nearly 20% YoY growth;
We keep TP unchanged at US$19/ADS and keep the BUY rating. BZ has a PEG of 0.5.


[Kanzhun Ltd. (BZ US, BUY, TP US$19) Earnings Review]: Focusing on Absolute Value…Maintain BUY

<ul>
<li>LKNCY US: The drink "Tengyun American" coffee package jointly launched by Luckin and "Black Myth: Wukong" game was sold out in its first day （/）</li>
<li>1519 HK/ZTO US: Weekly parcel volume grew ~29% y-o-y (+)</li>
<li>Consumer Industry update:China's Retail Industry Prosperity Index moderate rebound in August, mainly from offline retail recovery. (+)</li>
</ul>


LKNCY US: The drink "Tengyun American" coffee package jointly launched by Luckin and "Black Myth: Wukong" game was sold out in its first day （/）
1519 HK/ZTO US: Weekly parcel volume grew ~29% y-o-y (+)
Consumer Industry update:China's Retail Industry Prosperity Index moderate rebound in August, mainly from offline retail recovery. (+)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:LKNCY US/1519 HK/ZTO US/BZ US/1810 HK/981 HK/AAPL US

China

Kanzhun Limited provides online recruitment services. The Company connects job seekers and enterprise users through its mobile application. Kanzhun offers a mobile-native product that promotes instant direct chats between enterprise users and job seekers.

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52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
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Kanzhun (BZ US)

[Blue Lotus Daily]:ZTO/2618HK/NIU/603529CH/1585HK/MNSO/300750CH/1211HK/ZLAB/BZ/1810HK/AAPL/NIO/XPEV

ZTO US sees strong parcel volume during Double 11 sales, while Cainiao delivery integrates with JD platform in 2618 HK.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Kanzhun Ltd. (BZ US, BUY, TP US$19) Earnings Preview]: Recovery Is Far Away but Execution Is Solid

BZ expected to report decline in cash billing but higher non-GAAP net income; job market recovery still elusive; rating and TP unchanged with...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:BEKE US/BZ US/ATAT US/3690 HK/TCOM US/2618 HK/002352 CH/NIO US/XPEV US/1211 HK

Chinese companies discuss economic topics, JD and Alibaba reconcile for cross-platform launches, NIO lowers battery swap fees.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Kanzhun Ltd. (BZ US, BUY, TP US$19) Earnings Review]: Focusing on Absolute Value…Maintain BUY

Kanzhun Limited (BZ) reports solid earnings, maintains growth despite macro challenges, analysts maintain BUY rating with unchanged price target.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:LKNCY US/1519 HK/ZTO US/BZ US/1810 HK/981 HK/AAPL US

Luckin and "Black Myth: Wukong" game's coffee collaboration sells out in first day, parcel volume grows 29% y-o-y, China's Retail Industry sees...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Blue Lotus Daily]:ZTO/2618HK/NIU/603529CH/1585HK/MNSO/300750CH/1211HK/ZLAB/BZ/1810HK/AAPL/NIO/XPEV

​ZTO US sees strong parcel volume during Double 11 sales, while Cainiao delivery integrates with JD platform in 2618 HK.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Kanzhun Ltd. (BZ US, BUY, TP US$19) Earnings Preview]: Recovery Is Far Away but Execution Is Solid

​BZ expected to report decline in cash billing but higher non-GAAP net income; job market recovery still elusive; rating and TP unchanged with...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:BEKE US/BZ US/ATAT US/3690 HK/TCOM US/2618 HK/002352 CH/NIO US/XPEV US/1211 HK

​Chinese companies discuss economic topics, JD and Alibaba reconcile for cross-platform launches, NIO lowers battery swap fees.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Kanzhun Ltd. (BZ US, BUY, TP US$19) Earnings Review]: Focusing on Absolute Value…Maintain BUY

​Kanzhun Limited (BZ) reports solid earnings, maintains growth despite macro challenges, analysts maintain BUY rating with unchanged price target.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:LKNCY US/1519 HK/ZTO US/BZ US/1810 HK/981 HK/AAPL US

​Luckin and "Black Myth: Wukong" game's coffee collaboration sells out in first day, parcel volume grows 29% y-o-y, China's Retail Industry sees...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

ZTO US sees strong parcel volume during Double 11 sales, while Cainiao delivery integrates with JD platform in 2618 HK.

BZ expected to report decline in cash billing but higher non-GAAP net income; job market recovery still elusive; rating and TP unchanged with...

Chinese companies discuss economic topics, JD and Alibaba reconcile for cross-platform launches, NIO lowers battery swap fees.

Kanzhun Limited (BZ) reports solid earnings, maintains growth despite macro challenges, analysts maintain BUY rating with unchanged price target.

Luckin and "Black Myth: Wukong" game's coffee collaboration sells out in first day, parcel volume grows 29% y-o-y, China's Retail Industry sees...