Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>YTD sideways congestion for the MSCI ACWI ex-US and an intact downtrend for the MSCI EM index continue to point to a risk-off environment for international equity markets, and supports our neutral outlook<em>.</em> We continue to recommend avoiding broad indexed exposure in favor of selectivity. In today’s report we highlight actionable country- and Sector-specific themes within Norway, India, Japan and Australia.</p>

YTD sideways congestion for the MSCI ACWI ex-US and an intact downtrend for the MSCI EM index continue to point to a risk-off environment for international equity markets, and supports our neutral outlook. We continue to recommend avoiding broad indexed exposure in favor of selectivity. In today’s report we highlight actionable country- and Sector-specific themes within Norway, India, Japan and Australia.

Global Ex-U.S. & EM Continue to Point to Risk-Off Environment

Making sense of the Global Market, Euromonitor International Ltd.

Yu Mitsuhashi

Making sense of the Global Market

Euromonitor International Ltd.

We are a global market research company focused on industries, countries, economies and consumers worldwide. Our cross-country comparable research helps your organisation identify opportunities and develop growth strategies in countries and regions across the globe. With offices around the world, 1,200 analysts in 100 countries and market research on every key trend and driver, we give you powerful access to the real story behind consumer change.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Men’s grooming rose in current value by 2% in 2017 as sales to reach TWD3.5 billion.</li><li>Men’s grooming continued to benefit from the rising social acceptance of men taking care of their appearance.</li><li>Negative or marginally positive average unit price growth was recorded in all men’s grooming categories in current terms in 2017, with men’s fragrances the only exception as sales shift to premium brands.</li><li>Edgewell Personal Care Taiwan Ltd led sales in men’s grooming in 2017 with a value share of 12%.</li><li>Men’s grooming is set to register a value CAGR of 2% at constant 2017 prices over the forecast period with sales set to hit TWD3.7 billion by 2022.</li></ul>

Men’s grooming rose in current value by 2% in 2017 as sales to reach TWD3.5 billion.Men’s grooming continued to benefit from the rising social acceptance of men taking care of their appearance.Negative or marginally positive average unit price growth was recorded in all men’s grooming categories in current terms in 2017, with men’s fragrances the only exception as sales shift to premium brands.Edgewell Personal Care Taiwan Ltd led sales in men’s grooming in 2017 with a value share of 12%.Men’s grooming is set to register a value CAGR of 2% at constant 2017 prices over the forecast period with sales set to hit TWD3.7 billion by 2022.

<ul><li>Skin care recorded 3% current value growth to reach JPY1.8 trillion in 2017.</li><li>New development in anti-agers with quasi-drug qualifications dramatically drives skin care in Japan</li><li>Premiumisation further increases unit prices of skin care, while face masks and body care move towards the mass market</li><li>Shiseido Co Ltd led with a 13% value share in 2017.</li><li>Value sales are expected to increase at a 1% CAGR at constant 2017 prices to reach JPY2.0 trillion in 2022.</li></ul>

Skin care recorded 3% current value growth to reach JPY1.8 trillion in 2017.New development in anti-agers with quasi-drug qualifications dramatically drives skin care in JapanPremiumisation further increases unit prices of skin care, while face masks and body care move towards the mass marketShiseido Co Ltd led with a 13% value share in 2017.Value sales are expected to increase at a 1% CAGR at constant 2017 prices to reach JPY2.0 trillion in 2022.

<ul><li>Nappies/diapers/pants current value sales grew 7% in 2017, to reach IDR18.9 trillion</li><li>Indonesia offers many potential newcomers to enter the category in 2017</li><li>Average unit price of nappies kept increasing marginally in 2017</li><li>Mamy Poko by Uni Charm lead in 2017 with a value share of 52%, followed by Sweety by Softex with 22%</li><li>Nappies/diapers/pants is expected to post a value CAGR of 16% at constant 2017 prices over the forecast period, to reach IDR40.3 trillion in 2022</li></ul>

Nappies/diapers/pants current value sales grew 7% in 2017, to reach IDR18.9 trillionIndonesia offers many potential newcomers to enter the category in 2017Average unit price of nappies kept increasing marginally in 2017Mamy Poko by Uni Charm lead in 2017 with a value share of 52%, followed by Sweety by Softex with 22%Nappies/diapers/pants is expected to post a value CAGR of 16% at constant 2017 prices over the forecast period, to reach IDR40.3 trillion in 2022

Sector Capsule: Nappies/Diapers/Pants in Indonesia

<ul><li>Nappies/diapers/pants recorded retail current value growth of 10% in 2017, as value sales rise to CNY54.0 billion</li><li>The two-child policy supported the healthy growth of nappies/diapers/pants in 2017</li><li>The average unit price of nappies/diapers/pants declined slightly in 2017, due to the fierce competition</li><li>Procter &amp; Gamble (Guangzhou) maintained its lead within nappies/diapers/pants in 2017, with a 22% retail value share</li><li>Nappies/diapers/pants is expected to record an 11% retail value CAGR at constant 2017 prices over the forecast period, to reach CNY91.3 billion in 2022</li></ul>

Nappies/diapers/pants recorded retail current value growth of 10% in 2017, as value sales rise to CNY54.0 billionThe two-child policy supported the healthy growth of nappies/diapers/pants in 2017The average unit price of nappies/diapers/pants declined slightly in 2017, due to the fierce competitionProcter &amp; Gamble (Guangzhou) maintained its lead within nappies/diapers/pants in 2017, with a 22% retail value shareNappies/diapers/pants is expected to record an 11% retail value CAGR at constant 2017 prices over the forecast period, to reach CNY91.3 billion in 2022

Sector Capsule: Nappies/Diapers/Pants in China

Japan

Kao Corporation is a manufacturer of household and chemical products. The company produces cosmetics, laundry and cleaning products, hygiene products, fatty chemicals, edible oils, and specialty chemicals.

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Kao Corp (4452 JP)

Global Ex-U.S. & EM Continue to Point to Risk-Off Environment

YTD sideways congestion for the MSCI ACWI ex-US and an intact downtrend for the MSCI EM index continue to point to a risk-off environment for...

Vermilion Research

Sector Capsule: Men's Grooming in Taiwan

Men’s grooming rose in current value by 2% in 2017 as sales to reach TWD3.5 billion. Men’s grooming continued to benefit from the rising social...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

Sector Capsule: Skin Care in Japan

Skin care recorded 3% current value growth to reach JPY1.8 trillion in 2017. New development in anti-agers with quasi-drug qualifications...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

Sector Capsule: Nappies/Diapers/Pants in Indonesia

Nappies/diapers/pants current value sales grew 7% in 2017, to reach IDR18.9 trillion Indonesia offers many potential newcomers to enter the...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

Sector Capsule: Nappies/Diapers/Pants in China

Nappies/diapers/pants recorded retail current value growth of 10% in 2017, as value sales rise to CNY54.0 billion The two-child policy supported...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

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