Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kose-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18009:1" rel="noopener">Kose Corp (4922 JP)</a> delivered 3QFY21 results on 29<sup>th</sup> Friday with revenue and operating profit surpassing consensus estimates by 1.8% and 10.9% respectively. Kose's revenue declined just 5.6% YoY in 3QFY21, compared to 26.5% and 21.2% YoY in 1QFY21 and 2QFY21 respectively.</p><p>The company’s 3QFY21 operating profit was ¥7.1bn, compared to ¥1.1bn in 1QFY21 and ¥2.9bn in 2QFY21. Travel Retail (TR) and E-Commerce (EC) continued to perform well with 46.3% and 34.3% YoY revenue growth in 3QFY21. (TR – 26.1% YoY in 1HFY21, EC – 52.5% YoY in 1HFY21)</p><p>However, Kose lowered its FY21 revenue and OP guidance by 2.3% and 24.4% respectively, because of the new measures introduced to curtail the third wave of COVID-19.</p>

Kose Corp (4922 JP) delivered 3QFY21 results on 29th Friday with revenue and operating profit surpassing consensus estimates by 1.8% and 10.9% respectively. Kose's revenue declined just 5.6% YoY in 3QFY21, compared to 26.5% and 21.2% YoY in 1QFY21 and 2QFY21 respectively.The company’s 3QFY21 operating profit was ¥7.1bn, compared to ¥1.1bn in 1QFY21 and ¥2.9bn in 2QFY21. Travel Retail (TR) and E-Commerce (EC) continued to perform well with 46.3% and 34.3% YoY revenue growth in 3QFY21. (TR – 26.1% YoY in 1HFY21, EC – 52.5% YoY in 1HFY21)However, Kose lowered its FY21 revenue and OP guidance by 2.3% and 24.4% respectively, because of the new measures introduced to curtail the third wave of COVID-19.

Kose: China and E-Commerce Propels Kose’s Performance Towards the Pre-Pandemic Level

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fancl-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15862:1" rel="noopener">Fancl Corp (4921 JP)</a> delivered 3QFY21 results today, (28<sup>th</sup> January 2021) which saw operating profit increase by 6.5% YoY to ¥3.8bn (consensus ¥3.97bn). The company’s revenue was down 2.1% YoY, compared to consensus estimated growth rate of 0.7% YoY. Fancl lowered its FY21 revenue and OP guidance by 4.2% and 11.5% respectively, because of the additional measures introduced to curtail the rapid spread of COVID-19.</li>
<li>These negative factors are likely to impact the entire domestic cosmetics industry. However, Fancl is better placed among other Japanese cosmetic players, perhaps excluding <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12933:1" rel="noopener">Kao Corp (4452 JP)</a>, to face these challenging times, through Fancl's significantly greater exposure to the online and catalogue retail sales channel and diversification into the nutritional supplements business.</li>
</ul>



Fancl Corp (4921 JP) delivered 3QFY21 results today, (28th January 2021) which saw operating profit increase by 6.5% YoY to ¥3.8bn (consensus ¥3.97bn). The company’s revenue was down 2.1% YoY, compared to consensus estimated growth rate of 0.7% YoY. Fancl lowered its FY21 revenue and OP guidance by 4.2% and 11.5% respectively, because of the additional measures introduced to curtail the rapid spread of COVID-19.
These negative factors are likely to impact the entire domestic cosmetics industry. However, Fancl is better placed among other Japanese cosmetic players, perhaps excluding Kao Corp (4452 JP), to face these challenging times, through Fancl's significantly greater exposure to the online and catalogue retail sales channel and diversification into the nutritional supplements business.


FANCL: Lowers FY21 Guidance Amidst Rising COVID Cases, Still Outperforming Peers

Event-Driven

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiseido-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5718:1" rel="noopener">Shiseido Company (4911 JP)</a>, Japan’s biggest cosmetics company with annual revenue and OP of ¥1,131.5bn and ¥113.8bn respectively in 2019, said that it is considering selling its personal care business, which includes famous brands like TSUBAKI, SENKA, SEA Breeze, Ag DEO 24, AQUAIR and Uno, to CVC Capital Partners in the first half of 2021. This sale comes as a part of Shiseido’s 2023 transformation plan which targets 15% operating margin (an increase of 5 percentage points from 2019 level) by 2023.</p>

Shiseido Company (4911 JP), Japan’s biggest cosmetics company with annual revenue and OP of ¥1,131.5bn and ¥113.8bn respectively in 2019, said that it is considering selling its personal care business, which includes famous brands like TSUBAKI, SENKA, SEA Breeze, Ag DEO 24, AQUAIR and Uno, to CVC Capital Partners in the first half of 2021. This sale comes as a part of Shiseido’s 2023 transformation plan which targets 15% operating margin (an increase of 5 percentage points from 2019 level) by 2023.

Shiseido’s 2023 Transformation Plan Kicks Into Gear With The Proposed Sale of The Personal-Care Unit

<p>Since lifting the state of emergency towards the end of May 2020, Japan relied on mask-wearing and social distancing to curtail the spread of COVID-19. It was successful for about five months as Japan’s new COVID cases remained under control until the end of October 2020. Since then, COVID cases have spiralled out of control due to cold weather and pandemic fatigue. In November 2020, the seven-day average of COVID cases rose from about 500-600 cases per day at the beginning of November to over 2,000 cases per day by the end of the month. Seven-day average of COVID cases rose to around 6,500 cases per day by early January 2020, just before Japan declared a state of emergency in the capital Tokyo and three surrounding prefectures.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/183/876/original/image_56442858141611229982276.png?1611229987" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="183876"></figure><p>COVID-19 has a significant impact on the domestic cosmetics market. The domestic cosmetics sector earnings declined by 68% and shares underperformed TOPIX by 10 percentage points during the last 12 months due to the ongoing COVID-19 crisis.</p><p>In this insight, we analyse Japan’s cosmetic industry performance during the first two months of 4Q20, using the monthly data released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) and the Ministry of Finance.</p>

Since lifting the state of emergency towards the end of May 2020, Japan relied on mask-wearing and social distancing to curtail the spread of COVID-19. It was successful for about five months as Japan’s new COVID cases remained under control until the end of October 2020. Since then, COVID cases have spiralled out of control due to cold weather and pandemic fatigue. In November 2020, the seven-day average of COVID cases rose from about 500-600 cases per day at the beginning of November to over 2,000 cases per day by the end of the month. Seven-day average of COVID cases rose to around 6,500 cases per day by early January 2020, just before Japan declared a state of emergency in the capital Tokyo and three surrounding prefectures.COVID-19 has a significant impact on the domestic cosmetics market. The domestic cosmetics sector earnings declined by 68% and shares underperformed TOPIX by 10 percentage points during the last 12 months due to the ongoing COVID-19 crisis.In this insight, we analyse Japan’s cosmetic industry performance during the first two months of 4Q20, using the monthly data released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) and the Ministry of Finance.

Japanese Cosmetics Industry: Statistics Update – October & November 2020

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

<div><p>The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.</p></div><div><p>Hong Kong saw shorts rise on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smoore-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28241:1" rel="noopener">Smoore International (6969 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (HK) (9618 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haidilao-international-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27044:1" rel="noopener">Haidilao (6862 HK)</a> while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings (5 HK)</a>. Shorts increased on Real Estate, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples and Materials, and decreased on Financials , Information Technology, Health Care and Communication Services.</p></div><div><p>In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trend-micro-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13172:1" rel="noopener">Trend Micro Inc (4704 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seiko-epson-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16793:1" rel="noopener">Seiko Epson (6724 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-kyoto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5248:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of Kyoto (8369 JP)</a> while shorts decreased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/honda-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:154:1" rel="noopener">Honda Motor (7267 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ana-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5308:1" rel="noopener">Ana Holdings (9202 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12933:1" rel="noopener">Kao Corp (4452 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kubota-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12926:1" rel="noopener">Kubota Corp (6326 JP)</a>. Sectorally, shorts increased on Information Technology and Financials, while decreasing on Consumer Discretionary,  Industrials, Consumer Staples and Real Estate.</p></div><div><p>In Korea, there were short positions put on in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:155:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15002:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Corp (035720 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-display-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7145:1" rel="noopener">LG Display (034220 KS)</a> while shorts were covered in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-oil-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1667:1" rel="noopener">S Oil Corp (010950 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mirae-asset-daewoo-co-ltd-b50c4d95-1687-46cb-9b58-f79ce0e72670" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12061:1" rel="noopener">Mirae Asset Daewoo (006800 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanwha-life-insurance-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2163:1" rel="noopener">Hanwha Life Insurance (088350 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/doosan-infracore-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3982:1" rel="noopener">Doosan Infracore (042670 KS)</a>. </p></div><div><p>Stocks in Taiwan that saw the highest increase in shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pegatron-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12852:1" rel="noopener">Pegatron Corp (4938 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/foxconn-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11950:1" rel="noopener">Foxconn Technology (2354 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yageo-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13212:1" rel="noopener">Yageo Corporation (2327 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unimicron-technology-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18778:1" rel="noopener">Unimicron Technology (3037 TT)</a> while shorts were covered on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-microelectronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6450:1" rel="noopener">United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (2330 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergreen-marine-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15428:1" rel="noopener">Evergreen Marine Corp (2603 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-electronics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12688:1" rel="noopener">Delta Electronics (2308 TT)</a>.</p></div>

The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.Hong Kong saw shorts rise on Smoore International (6969 HK), Tencent Holdings (700 HK), JD.com (HK) (9618 HK) and Haidilao (6862 HK) while there was short covering on Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK), Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK), China Mobile (941 HK) and HSBC Holdings (5 HK). Shorts increased on Real Estate, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples and Materials, and decreased on Financials , Information Technology, Health Care and Communication Services.In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were Itochu Corp (8001 JP), Trend Micro Inc (4704 JP), Seiko Epson (6724 JP) and Bank Of Kyoto (8369 JP) while shorts decreased on Honda Motor (7267 JP), Ana Holdings (9202 JP), Kao Corp (4452 JP) and Kubota Corp (6326 JP). Sectorally, shorts increased on Information Technology and Financials, while decreasing on Consumer Discretionary,  Industrials, Consumer Staples and Real Estate.In Korea, there were short positions put on in Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS), Kakao Corp (035720 KS) and LG Display (034220 KS) while shorts were covered in S Oil Corp (010950 KS), Mirae Asset Daewoo (006800 KS), Hanwha Life Insurance (088350 KS) and Doosan Infracore (042670 KS). Stocks in Taiwan that saw the highest increase in shorts were Pegatron Corp (4938 TT), Foxconn Technology (2354 TT), Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) and Unimicron Technology (3037 TT) while shorts were covered on United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT), TSMC (2330 TT), Evergreen Marine Corp (2603 TT) and Delta Electronics (2308 TT).

Asia Short Interest: Smoore, JD, SMIC, China Mobile, Itochu, Honda, Ana, Samsung, Pegatron, TSMC

Japan

Kao Corporation is a manufacturer of household and chemical products. The company produces cosmetics, laundry and cleaning products, hygiene products, fatty chemicals, edible oils, and specialty chemicals.

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Kao Corp (4452 JP)

Kose: China and E-Commerce Propels Kose’s Performance Towards the Pre-Pandemic Level

Even though there are indications that Kose could be relaxing cost controls, an implied 4QFY21 OPM of 2.5% seem conservative making an OP beat a...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

FANCL: Lowers FY21 Guidance Amidst Rising COVID Cases, Still Outperforming Peers

Fancl delivered 3QFY21 results today, which saw operating profit increase by 6.5% YoY to ¥3.8bn (consensus ¥3.97bn). The company’s revenue was down...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Shiseido’s 2023 Transformation Plan Kicks Into Gear With The Proposed Sale of The Personal-Care Unit

Shiseido could generate over ¥100bn through the proposed sale of the personal care business unit and the company could use that cash proceeds to...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Japanese Cosmetics Industry: Statistics Update – October & November 2020

We analyse Japan’s cosmetic industry performance during the first two months of 4Q20, using the monthly data released by the Ministry of Economy,...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Asia Short Interest: Smoore, JD, SMIC, China Mobile, Itochu, Honda, Ana, Samsung, Pegatron, TSMC

The Insight looks at large short interest movements across HK, Japan, Korea and Taiwan stocks and highlights large increases/decreases in shorts to...

Brian Freitas

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