New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The reciprocal tariffs imposed by the Trump administration could have a material impact on KMD Brands' operations, potentially leading to an annualised impact of approximately NZ$20m post-tax.</li><li>KMD aims to mitigate tariff impacts through price and cost control, with Northern Hemisphere summer inventory already landed in the US, insulating it from short-term impacts.</li><li>The target price for KMD has been reduced to NZ$0.47, reflecting the impact of tariffs, with an OUTPERFORM rating maintained.</li></ul>

The reciprocal tariffs imposed by the Trump administration could have a material impact on KMD Brands' operations, potentially leading to an annualised impact of approximately NZ$20m post-tax.KMD aims to mitigate tariff impacts through price and cost control, with Northern Hemisphere summer inventory already landed in the US, insulating it from short-term impacts.The target price for KMD has been reduced to NZ$0.47, reflecting the impact of tariffs, with an OUTPERFORM rating maintained.

<ul><li>The sales downgrade cycle is nearing an end, particularly in the direct-to-consumer (D2C) channel, with 2Q25 sales up 7% year-on-year in both Kathmandu and Rip Curl.</li><li>Investment in Kathmandu's brand and product range is yielding early results, delivering structural growth beyond a cyclical recovery.</li><li>Wholesale destocking appears to be behind us, with early 1H26 orders pointing to year-on-year growth.</li></ul>

The sales downgrade cycle is nearing an end, particularly in the direct-to-consumer (D2C) channel, with 2Q25 sales up 7% year-on-year in both Kathmandu and Rip Curl.Investment in Kathmandu's brand and product range is yielding early results, delivering structural growth beyond a cyclical recovery.Wholesale destocking appears to be behind us, with early 1H26 orders pointing to year-on-year growth.

KMD Brands 1H25 Result—Finding a Foothold

<ul><li>The US is the key opportunity for KMD Brands' (KMD) RipCurl business.</li><li>Rip Curl is a top one or two surf brand in most of its international markets, except in the US, where it was identified as only a top-six brand (as at May 2023).</li><li>Its key US peers —Billabong, Quiksilver, Volcom, and several smaller surf and skate brands—were acquired by Authentic Brands in September 2023. </li></ul>

The US is the key opportunity for KMD Brands' (KMD) RipCurl business.Rip Curl is a top one or two surf brand in most of its international markets, except in the US, where it was identified as only a top-six brand (as at May 2023).Its key US peers —Billabong, Quiksilver, Volcom, and several smaller surf and skate brands—were acquired by Authentic Brands in September 2023. 

<ul><li>KMD Brands (KMD) reported a mixed five-month trading update, with positive annual sales growth in November and December 2024 but disappointing 1H25 underlying EBITDA guidance.</li><li>The last time KMD provided a trading update with positive annual sales growth was in May 2023.</li><li>1H25 EBITDA guidance of NZ$1m–$3m was below ours and consensus expectations as gross margins compressed and marketing budgets increased to support sales growth. </li></ul>

KMD Brands (KMD) reported a mixed five-month trading update, with positive annual sales growth in November and December 2024 but disappointing 1H25 underlying EBITDA guidance.The last time KMD provided a trading update with positive annual sales growth was in May 2023.1H25 EBITDA guidance of NZ$1m–$3m was below ours and consensus expectations as gross margins compressed and marketing budgets increased to support sales growth. 

<ul><li>KMD Brands (KMD) provided a mixed 1Q25 trading update.</li><li>Our key positive takeaways were: (1) sales declines in its direct to consumer (D2C) channels are clearly moderating, and (2) gross margins have been more resilient than we had expected.</li><li>This is offset by its wholesale businesses, which remain challenging; improvement is not expected until at least 2H25. </li></ul>

KMD Brands (KMD) provided a mixed 1Q25 trading update.Our key positive takeaways were: (1) sales declines in its direct to consumer (D2C) channels are clearly moderating, and (2) gross margins have been more resilient than we had expected.This is offset by its wholesale businesses, which remain challenging; improvement is not expected until at least 2H25. 

New Zealand

Kathmandu Holdings Ltd. provides clothing and equipment for the travel and adventure market. The Company operates retail locations throughout Australia and New Zealand.

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Kathmandu Holdings (KMD NZ)

KMD Brands - Riding the Tariff Wave

The reciprocal tariffs imposed by the Trump administration could have a material impact on KMD Brands' operations, potentially leading to an...

Forsyth Barr

KMD Brands 1H25 Result—Finding a Foothold

The sales downgrade cycle is nearing an end, particularly in the direct-to-consumer (D2C) channel, with 2Q25 sales up 7% year-on-year in both...

Forsyth Barr

KMD Brands - Surfing USA

Rip Curl is a top one or two surf brand in most of its international markets, except in the US, where it was identified as only a top-six brand (as...

Forsyth Barr

KMD Brands - Making It Out of the Barrel

KMD Brands (KMD) reported a mixed five-month trading update, with positive annual sales growth in November and December 2024 but disappointing 1H25...

Forsyth Barr

KMD Brands - Trekking Through the Cycle

Our key positive takeaways were: (1) sales declines in its direct to consumer (D2C) channels are clearly moderating, and (2) gross margins have...

Forsyth Barr

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