New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Australian consumer weakness weighs on key winter sale period: Revenue guidance of NZ$1.1bn is ~-6% or ~-NZ$66m, below our (and consensus) forecasts of NZ$1.17bn. </li><li>Delayed earnings recovery expectations: While we had anticipated travel tailwinds would support sales through to the end of FY23 (July 2023), this update brings forward our expectations for a weaker consumer outlook from 1Q24 to 4Q23. </li><li>Operating deleverage partly mitigated by cost controls: KMD noted gross margins are expected to be broadly in line with FY22 (~59%).</li></ul>

Australian consumer weakness weighs on key winter sale period: Revenue guidance of NZ$1.1bn is ~-6% or ~-NZ$66m, below our (and consensus) forecasts of NZ$1.17bn. Delayed earnings recovery expectations: While we had anticipated travel tailwinds would support sales through to the end of FY23 (July 2023), this update brings forward our expectations for a weaker consumer outlook from 1Q24 to 4Q23. Operating deleverage partly mitigated by cost controls: KMD noted gross margins are expected to be broadly in line with FY22 (~59%).

<ul><li>Strategic targets unchanged — short-term focus on efficiencies, medium term focus on brand growth</li><li>Consumer demand pressures still not clear for KMD — D2C is resilient, but wholesalers remain flighty</li><li>Ambitious capital allocation goals include potential acquisitions, and possible return of capital to shareholders </li></ul>

Strategic targets unchanged — short-term focus on efficiencies, medium term focus on brand growthConsumer demand pressures still not clear for KMD — D2C is resilient, but wholesalers remain flightyAmbitious capital allocation goals include potential acquisitions, and possible return of capital to shareholders 

KMD Brands: Investor Day — Mapping Out the Journey

<ul><li>KMD Brands’ (KMD) 1H23 result showed a rebound in revenue and profitability versus the prior year.</li><li>1H23 EBITDA (pre-IFRS 16) was in-line with guidance of NZ$45m. However, underlying NPAT of NZ$16.5m surprised to the downside, at -10% below FB, but in line with consensus</li><li>The primary driver of this has been higher debt levels from working capital impacts to cash flow, driving an increase in interest costs (in addition to higher interest rates).</li></ul>

KMD Brands’ (KMD) 1H23 result showed a rebound in revenue and profitability versus the prior year.1H23 EBITDA (pre-IFRS 16) was in-line with guidance of NZ$45m. However, underlying NPAT of NZ$16.5m surprised to the downside, at -10% below FB, but in line with consensusThe primary driver of this has been higher debt levels from working capital impacts to cash flow, driving an increase in interest costs (in addition to higher interest rates).

KMD Brands (KMD)  1H23 Result – Initial Impressions

<ul><li>KMD Brands’ (KMD) 1H23 result showed a rebound in revenue and profitability versus the prior year.</li><li>Although underlying NPAT was -10% below our forecast (driven primarily by higher debt and associated interest expenses), it was in line with consensus, and market expectations heading into the result were very low. </li><li>KMD updated its near and medium-term strategic targets, which include efficiency improvements in the next one to two year horizon, and material revenue growth across all brands over a three to five year time-frame</li></ul>

KMD Brands’ (KMD) 1H23 result showed a rebound in revenue and profitability versus the prior year.Although underlying NPAT was -10% below our forecast (driven primarily by higher debt and associated interest expenses), it was in line with consensus, and market expectations heading into the result were very low. KMD updated its near and medium-term strategic targets, which include efficiency improvements in the next one to two year horizon, and material revenue growth across all brands over a three to five year time-frame

KMD Brands: 1H23 — (Re)Setting Base Camp

<ul><li>We expect KMD Brands (KMD) to report a rebound in revenue and profitability in its 1H23 result, due on 22 March 2023.</li><li>KMD has guided 1H23 total revenue of ~NZ$546m and underlying EBITDA (pre-IFRS 16) of ~NZ$45m.</li><li>With the interim result effectively pre-released, the key focus areas are (1) signs of consumer demand weakness in key channels, (2) inventory levels and debt position, (3) cost controls, and (4) progress on the global Kathmandu expansion. </li></ul>

We expect KMD Brands (KMD) to report a rebound in revenue and profitability in its 1H23 result, due on 22 March 2023.KMD has guided 1H23 total revenue of ~NZ$546m and underlying EBITDA (pre-IFRS 16) of ~NZ$45m.With the interim result effectively pre-released, the key focus areas are (1) signs of consumer demand weakness in key channels, (2) inventory levels and debt position, (3) cost controls, and (4) progress on the global Kathmandu expansion. 

KMD Brands: 1H23 Preview — Scanning Ahead

New Zealand

Kathmandu Holdings Ltd. provides clothing and equipment for the travel and adventure market. The Company operates retail locations throughout Australia and New Zealand.

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Kathmandu Holdings (KMD NZ)

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Forsyth Barr

KMD Brands: Investor Day — Mapping Out the Journey

KMD Brands' (KMD) investor day provided further clarity on its path to reaching its strategic targets, which were unchanged from its 1H23 interim...

Forsyth Barr

KMD Brands (KMD) 1H23 Result – Initial Impressions

KMD Brands’ (KMD) 1H23 result showed a rebound in revenue and profitability versus the prior year; 1H23 EBITDA (pre-IFRS 16) was in-line with...

Forsyth Barr

KMD Brands: 1H23 — (Re)Setting Base Camp

KMD Brands’ (KMD) 1H23 result showed a rebound in revenue and profitability versus the prior year; Although underlying NPAT was -10% below our...

Forsyth Barr

KMD Brands: 1H23 Preview — Scanning Ahead

We expect KMD Brands (KMD) to report a rebound in revenue and profitability in its 1H23 result, due on 22 March 2023; KMD has guided 1H23 total...

Forsyth Barr

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