Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Event-Driven

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services / Event-Driven

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (ZIM US)

<ul>
<li>Hapag-Lloyd last week announced an all cash US$4.2 bn bid for shares of Israel's ZIM</li>
<li>The deal will likely face regulators' scrutiny in Israel, Germany, maybe in EU, US too</li>
<li>Moreover, we believe long-term returns on the acquired assets will likely be negative</li>
</ul>


Hapag-Lloyd last week announced an all cash US$4.2 bn bid for shares of Israel's ZIM
The deal will likely face regulators' scrutiny in Israel, Germany, maybe in EU, US too
Moreover, we believe long-term returns on the acquired assets will likely be negative


Hapag-Lloyd Announced US$4.2 Bn Bid for Israel's ZIM | Unfortunately, We Can't Get the Math to Math

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Taiwan's two deep-sea container carriers reported a Y/Y decline in combined revenue in April</li>
<li>In USD terms, the two carriers' combined revenues are down -48% vs 2024 peak levels</li>
<li>Sector YTD &amp; Y/Y share performance do <em>not</em> reflect worsening fundamentals; stay SHORT</li>
</ul>


Taiwan's two deep-sea container carriers reported a Y/Y decline in combined revenue in April
In USD terms, the two carriers' combined revenues are down -48% vs 2024 peak levels
Sector YTD &amp; Y/Y share performance do not reflect worsening fundamentals; stay SHORT


Taiwan's Deep-Sea Carriers Saw Revenue Decline Y/Y in April, First Time Since Dec-2023 | Stay SHORT!

<ul>
<li>Spot container rates have surged, owing to conflict near Red Sea / Suez Canal</li>
<li>On top of higher spot rates, imposition of new fees also boosting carrier revenue</li>
<li>Evergreen's average monthly US$ revenue <em>increased</em> from Q123 to Q423</li>
</ul>


Spot container rates have surged, owing to conflict near Red Sea / Suez Canal
On top of higher spot rates, imposition of new fees also boosting carrier revenue
Evergreen's average monthly US$ revenue increased from Q123 to Q423


Spot Container Rates Surge | New Fees Also Boosting Carrier Revenue | Increases Could Lift '24 Rates

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>In mid-May 2026, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kawasaki-kisen-kaisha-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3548:1" rel="noopener">Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP)</a> said that in preparation for its next Mid-Term-Management-Plan starting next year, they allocated ¥50bn to a buyback, and ¥80bn more sometime later. </li>
<li>On 29 May, KLINE decided "sometime later" meant now. They upped their buyback plan from ¥50bn to ¥130bn and started with a big ToSTNeT-3. Insiders agreed. They sold ¥50.7bn. </li>
<li>The other ¥79.3bn/24.8mm shares will be bought in the market over four months. At current price, that's ¥62bn. Expect more later. </li>
</ul>


In mid-May 2026, Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP) said that in preparation for its next Mid-Term-Management-Plan starting next year, they allocated ¥50bn to a buyback, and ¥80bn more sometime later. 
On 29 May, KLINE decided "sometime later" meant now. They upped their buyback plan from ¥50bn to ¥130bn and started with a big ToSTNeT-3. Insiders agreed. They sold ¥50.7bn. 
The other ¥79.3bn/24.8mm shares will be bought in the market over four months. At current price, that's ¥62bn. Expect more later. 


[Japan Buyback] Kawasaki Kisen/KLINE (9107) - Big Buyback Advanced in Size and Timing, More Later

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>AI and tech led knee-jerk gains higher. Outperforming optical and photonic names should help QD Laser (6613 JP) after its -16% tumble yesterday.</li>
<li>Yesterday Toyo Engineering (6330 JP) was limit down -19.3% and Chiyoda Corp (6366 JP) -12.4% but both names are ripe for a solid rebound.</li>
<li>With increasingly high yields, the affordability crisis continues and homebuilders will continue to underperform - as will Sumitomo Forestry (1911 JP).</li>
</ul>


AI and tech led knee-jerk gains higher. Outperforming optical and photonic names should help QD Laser (6613 JP) after its -16% tumble yesterday.
Yesterday Toyo Engineering (6330 JP) was limit down -19.3% and Chiyoda Corp (6366 JP) -12.4% but both names are ripe for a solid rebound.
With increasingly high yields, the affordability crisis continues and homebuilders will continue to underperform - as will Sumitomo Forestry (1911 JP).


Japan Morning Connection: Oil and Gas Infrastructure Names Ripe for a Solid Rebound

Japan

Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Ltd. operates marine cargo and passenger transportation around the world.  The Company provides ocean liner, bulk carrier, car carrier, unscheduled specialized carrier, and energy transportation services. The Company also offers insurance, warehousing, and land transportation services.  Items transported include automobile, grain, petroleum, coal, iron ore, and wood chip.

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Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP)

Hapag-Lloyd Announced US$4.2 Bn Bid for Israel's ZIM | Unfortunately, We Can't Get the Math to Math

The deal doesn't make financial sense unless EBITDA margins average 20% or better over the next 15 years, which is more than current margins and...

Tracking Traffic

Taiwan's Deep-Sea Carriers Saw Revenue Decline Y/Y in April, First Time Since Dec-2023 | Stay SHORT!

April revenue figures from Evergreen and Yang Ming suggest a sharp deterioration in fundamentals, which has not been reflected in YTD or Y/Y share...

Tracking Traffic

Spot Container Rates Surge | New Fees Also Boosting Carrier Revenue | Increases Could Lift '24 Rates

Spot container rates have surged, and carriers are also benefitting from newly-imposed ancillary charges. It's possible the ongoing conflict in the...

Tracking Traffic

[Japan Buyback] Kawasaki Kisen/KLINE (9107) - Big Buyback Advanced in Size and Timing, More Later

KLINE has recently underperformed expectations - both the market's and its own. New Hormuz problems don't help. But the company has upped its...

Travis Lundy

Japan Morning Connection: Oil and Gas Infrastructure Names Ripe for a Solid Rebound

Path to a Gulf ceasefire lifts sentiment, with Toyo Engineering and Chiyoda Corp ripe for rebound. Airlines and homebuilders see some relief.

Andrew Jackson

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