Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>May see rebounds for biggest SPE losers over the week - Lasertec -14%, Softy -19%, Rigaku -12% and JX Advanced Metals -16%.</li>
<li>Expect a strong day for the Japanese optical peers, especially Furukawa Electric and Sumitomo Electric Industries.</li>
<li>Japanese telcos may face selling pressure as SpaceX talks with Charter about a consumer mobile offering and Rocket Lab looks to build out its own telecom network.</li>
</ul>


May see rebounds for biggest SPE losers over the week - Lasertec -14%, Softy -19%, Rigaku -12% and JX Advanced Metals -16%.
Expect a strong day for the Japanese optical peers, especially Furukawa Electric and Sumitomo Electric Industries.
Japanese telcos may face selling pressure as SpaceX talks with Charter about a consumer mobile offering and Rocket Lab looks to build out its own telecom network.


Japan Morning Connection: Memory-Exposed SPEs Primed to Rally on South Korean Semi Investment

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) / Equity Derivatives

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH)

<ul>
<li>WEEKLY tactical global macro recap/analysis for several markets and stocks we track, grouped by sector.</li>
<li>We apply our quantitative models to each instrument's trend, to determine which stocks/markets are just starting a trend, are in the middle of it, or are about to end it.</li>
<li>
<strong>Most overbought</strong>:  Nikkei 225, Hanwha Solutions (009830 KS), Tokyo Electron (8035 JP), Advantest Corp (6857 JP)<strong> Most oversold</strong>: NIFTY, CATL (300750 CH), GLD, Zijin Mining, Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)</li>
</ul>


WEEKLY tactical global macro recap/analysis for several markets and stocks we track, grouped by sector.
We apply our quantitative models to each instrument's trend, to determine which stocks/markets are just starting a trend, are in the middle of it, or are about to end it.

Most overbought:  Nikkei 225, Hanwha Solutions (009830 KS), Tokyo Electron (8035 JP), Advantest Corp (6857 JP) Most oversold: NIFTY, CATL (300750 CH), GLD, Zijin Mining, Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)


WEEKLY Tactical Recap | Asymmetric Setup: CATL, Advantest Corp, Tokyo Electron, Zijin Mining, NIFTY

<ul>
<li>Expectations for Intel's 14A process grows with TSMC leading-node capacity tapped out.</li>
<li>China banning US cybersecurity firm had limited impact, although VMware connection takes Broadcom lower.</li>
<li>Dentsu down -10.5% yesterday after its International sale fell through. Watch for rebound.</li>
</ul>


Expectations for Intel's 14A process grows with TSMC leading-node capacity tapped out.
China banning US cybersecurity firm had limited impact, although VMware connection takes Broadcom lower.
Dentsu down -10.5% yesterday after its International sale fell through. Watch for rebound.


Japan Morning Connection: Mkt Rotation Not Really Hitting Tech and AI but Expect Mild Weakness

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>EQT/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/digital-garage-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13747:1" rel="noopener">Digital Garage (4819 JP)</a> raised its <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaku-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7408:1" rel="noopener">Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP)</a> offer by JPY1 to JPY3,681, extending the closing to 14 October. EQT/DG argue that Bain/LY's JPY3,597 offer cannot launch.</li>
<li>EQT/DG's criticism is only partly valid. Its primary argument is circular, and the market-manipulation claim looks overstated. Still, Bain/LY's pricing below the thresholds and its unclear launch are real weaknesses.</li>
<li>Bain/LY's most credible path is a substantive bump above JPY3,755, ideally towards the high end of the IFA DCF range (JPY3,923). Anything else risks EQT/DG winning.</li>
</ul>


EQT/Digital Garage (4819 JP) raised its Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP) offer by JPY1 to JPY3,681, extending the closing to 14 October. EQT/DG argue that Bain/LY's JPY3,597 offer cannot launch.
EQT/DG's criticism is only partly valid. Its primary argument is circular, and the market-manipulation claim looks overstated. Still, Bain/LY's pricing below the thresholds and its unclear launch are real weaknesses.
Bain/LY's most credible path is a substantive bump above JPY3,755, ideally towards the high end of the IFA DCF range (JPY3,923). Anything else risks EQT/DG winning.


Kakaku.com (2371 JP): EQT/DG's JPY1 Bump Puts the Onus on Bain/LY to Go Big

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Yesterday, Kakaku agreed to dissolve its Capital Alliance with KDDI. That was expected. KDDI agreed to sell everything. I expect it is accounting-driven. </li>
<li>Today, EQT's ¥3,680 TOB was set to expire so they raised it to ¥3,681 and extended 10 days. Interestingly, their Bidder Announcement document changed content significantly. </li>
<li>The reference to negotiating with Oasis is gone. Instead, a diatribe against Bain for not being serious about things, bringing a non-feasible bid. There is vaguely threatening language.</li>
</ul>


Yesterday, Kakaku agreed to dissolve its Capital Alliance with KDDI. That was expected. KDDI agreed to sell everything. I expect it is accounting-driven. 
Today, EQT's ¥3,680 TOB was set to expire so they raised it to ¥3,681 and extended 10 days. Interestingly, their Bidder Announcement document changed content significantly. 
The reference to negotiating with Oasis is gone. Instead, a diatribe against Bain for not being serious about things, bringing a non-feasible bid. There is vaguely threatening language.


[Japan M&A] EQT Raises by ¥1 (+0.272%) To Still Below Maket, But EQT Language Could Speed Things Up

Japan

KDDI CORPORATION provides mobile communication services and sells mobile devices.  The Company also is a broadband provider.

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KDDI Corp (9433 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: Memory-Exposed SPEs Primed to Rally on South Korean Semi Investment

Japanese SPEs with memory exposure set for a quarter-end rally. Furukawa and SEI in focus after Corning's breakout. Telcos face headwinds from new...

Andrew Jackson

WEEKLY Tactical Recap | Asymmetric Setup: CATL, Advantest Corp, Tokyo Electron, Zijin Mining, NIFTY

Weekly Macro Tactical Recap | Asymmetric Setups - Quantitative models tracking momentum extremes across Asian/Global equities and commodities to...

Nico Rosti

Japan Morning Connection: Mkt Rotation Not Really Hitting Tech and AI but Expect Mild Weakness

Some rotation from mega tech into smaller cap value plays. China retaliates with tech bans for the US. KDDI may suffer after news of "innapropriate...

Andrew Jackson

Kakaku.com (2371 JP): EQT/DG's JPY1 Bump Puts the Onus on Bain/LY to Go Big

Bain/LY's most credible path is a substantive bump above JPY3,755, ideally towards the high end of its IFA DCF range (JPY3,923). Whether Bain/LY...

Arun George

[Japan M&A] EQT Raises by ¥1 (+0.272%) To Still Below Maket, But EQT Language Could Speed Things Up

EQT has overbid its old underbid (to Bain's too-weak placeholder overbid) by a whopping ¥1/share. Again. Now they are both placeholders but EQT is...

Travis Lundy

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