Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Beijing and Shanghai laid out long waited stimulus policies on property market, include 1) lower property down payments ratio;2) lower mortgage loan rate;</li>
<li>3) lower recognition standard for ordinary home. The key is to encourage households to add leverage.</li>
<li>We treat the financial stimulus as one-off positive shock to the home transaction markets in the two cities,  especially benefiting 1Q24 sales for Beike due to...</li>
</ul>


Beijing and Shanghai laid out long waited stimulus policies on property market, include 1) lower property down payments ratio;2) lower mortgage loan rate;
3) lower recognition standard for ordinary home. The key is to encourage households to add leverage.
We treat the financial stimulus as one-off positive shock to the home transaction markets in the two cities,  especially benefiting 1Q24 sales for Beike due to...


[KE Holdings Inc. (BEKE US, BUY, TP US$24.5) TP Change]: Policy Stimulus Drive up near Term Sales

<ul>
<li>KE Holdings’ (Beike) C3Q23 revenue was 7.7%/11.6% higher than our est./cons., non-GAAP net income beat our est./cons. by 35%/119%. Existing home sales and non-transaction biz drove the bottom line beat.</li>
<li>We expect Beike C4Q23 to grow 20% YoY, 33% in existing home and 5% in new home, supported by gradual recovery of home transaction and Beike’s market share gain;</li>
<li>We reiterate BUY rating and raised TP by US$0.5 to US$24.5/ADS, also taking into account of progress in home renovation and rental management.</li>
</ul>


KE Holdings’ (Beike) C3Q23 revenue was 7.7%/11.6% higher than our est./cons., non-GAAP net income beat our est./cons. by 35%/119%. Existing home sales and non-transaction biz drove the bottom line beat.
We expect Beike C4Q23 to grow 20% YoY, 33% in existing home and 5% in new home, supported by gradual recovery of home transaction and Beike’s market share gain;
We reiterate BUY rating and raised TP by US$0.5 to US$24.5/ADS, also taking into account of progress in home renovation and rental management.


[KE Holdings (BEKE US,BUY,TP US$24.5)TP Change]:Steady Recovery with Catalysts for Market Share Gain

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Beike reported (8 Nov) 3Q23 financial results: total revenue was up 1.2% YoY to RMB17.8bn in 3Q23, 12% higher than both our forecast and Bloomberg consensus estimates, mainly due to better-than-feared GTV generation from both existing home transactions (EHT) and new home transactions (NHT) aided by the relaxation of policy restrictions, and stronger-than-expected revenue growth in home renovation business.</li><li>Non-GAAP net income was RMB2.1bn, better than our forecast/consensus estimate of RMB875mn/988mn, thanks to better-thanexpected revenue generation and stringent-than-expected cost saving.</li><li>Based on a prudent estimation, management guided 4Q23 revenue to be between RMB18.0bn and RMB18.5bn, implying growth of 7.5-10.5% YoY and 1-4% QoQ.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Beike reported (8 Nov) 3Q23 financial results: total revenue was up 1.2% YoY to RMB17.8bn in 3Q23, 12% higher than both our forecast and Bloomberg consensus estimates, mainly due to better-than-feared GTV generation from both existing home transactions (EHT) and new home transactions (NHT) aided by the relaxation of policy restrictions, and stronger-than-expected revenue growth in home renovation business.Non-GAAP net income was RMB2.1bn, better than our forecast/consensus estimate of RMB875mn/988mn, thanks to better-thanexpected revenue generation and stringent-than-expected cost saving.Based on a prudent estimation, management guided 4Q23 revenue to be between RMB18.0bn and RMB18.5bn, implying growth of 7.5-10.5% YoY and 1-4% QoQ.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Ke Holdings (BEKE US) – Expecting a Sequential Recovery in 4Q

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

<ul>
<li>We expect BEKE C4Q22 revenue and non-GAAP NI to be 9% and 64% above consensus. The bottom line beat is a result of earning leverage;</li>
<li>We expect the market monthly EH/NH transaction volume to turn positive growth in C1H23, with resumed offline activities and continuing policy support as main drivers</li>
<li>We raise TP by US$1 to US$20: 1) dialling up GTV in 4Q22, 2) faster pace transaction recovery in 2023, and 3) rebase FX from 7.05 to 6.77 in valuation.</li>
</ul>


We expect BEKE C4Q22 revenue and non-GAAP NI to be 9% and 64% above consensus. The bottom line beat is a result of earning leverage;
We expect the market monthly EH/NH transaction volume to turn positive growth in C1H23, with resumed offline activities and continuing policy support as main drivers
We raise TP by US$1 to US$20: 1) dialling up GTV in 4Q22, 2) faster pace transaction recovery in 2023, and 3) rebase FX from 7.05 to 6.77 in valuation.


KE Holdings（BEKE.US) Preview:C4Q22 Marked the Beginning of 2023 Recovery

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US listed China companies.</li>
<li>The Hong Kong visit was on the back of the 26th Aug 2022 announcement by PCAOB and CSRC that they had entered into an agreement with US authorities for access.</li>
<li>In this note, we'll talk about the latest developments, possible outcomes and implications.</li>
</ul>


PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US listed China companies.
The Hong Kong visit was on the back of the 26th Aug 2022 announcement by PCAOB and CSRC that they had entered into an agreement with US authorities for access.
In this note, we'll talk about the latest developments, possible outcomes and implications.


China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

China

KE Holdings Inc. operates as an integrated online and offline platform for housing transactions and services. The Company offers existing and new home sales, home rentals, home renovation, real estate financial solutions, and other services. KE Holdings conducts businesses in China.

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KE Holdings (BEKE US)

[KE Holdings Inc. (BEKE US, BUY, TP US$24.5) TP Change]: Policy Stimulus Drive up near Term Sales

Beijing and Shanghai introduce stimulus policies to boost property market, including lower down payments, mortgage rates, and recognition...

Blue Lotus Research Institute