Director, Head of Research, Smartkarma

Pranav Rao

Director, Head of Research

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Event-Driven

Agricultural Bank of China / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ Insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma</li>
<li>In this cut, we explore A-H share trading dynamics, consider copper market dynamics and plays, and China's bottoming/stabilizing real estate market</li>
<li>Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next</li>
</ul>


Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ Insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma
In this cut, we explore A-H share trading dynamics, consider copper market dynamics and plays, and China's bottoming/stabilizing real estate market
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next


Curator's Cut: Arbs Go A-H, Copper Plays & China's Property Pulse

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Exhibiting home revenue recovered significantly in 4Q24, while new home revenue recovered from 3Q24.</li>
<li>The growth rate of active stores and active agents accelerated quarter by quarter.</li>
<li>We conclude an upside of 105% and a price target of US$42.00. Buy.</li>
</ul>


Exhibiting home revenue recovered significantly in 4Q24, while new home revenue recovered from 3Q24.
The growth rate of active stores and active agents accelerated quarter by quarter.
We conclude an upside of 105% and a price target of US$42.00. Buy.


KE (BEKE US, 2423 HK): 2024 Result, Accelerating Quarter by Quarter, Upside Above 100%

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Ke Holdings’ (Beike) 1Q26 revenue declined 19.0% YoY to RMB18.9bn, inline with Bloomberg consensus and our forecast, but non-GAAP net profit reached RMB1.6bn, up 15.7% YoY, largely beating Bloomberg and our forecast of RMB1.0-1.2bn.</li><li>Non-GAAP NP margin reached 8.5%, a 7-quarter high, validating the company's efficiency-driven transformation.</li><li>Looking forward, management guided for strong 2Q26E revenue with non-GAAP OPM of ~12% and NPM of ~9-10%. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Ke Holdings’ (Beike) 1Q26 revenue declined 19.0% YoY to RMB18.9bn, inline with Bloomberg consensus and our forecast, but non-GAAP net profit reached RMB1.6bn, up 15.7% YoY, largely beating Bloomberg and our forecast of RMB1.0-1.2bn.Non-GAAP NP margin reached 8.5%, a 7-quarter high, validating the company's efficiency-driven transformation.Looking forward, management guided for strong 2Q26E revenue with non-GAAP OPM of ~12% and NPM of ~9-10%. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Ke Holdings (BEKE US) - Embracing the Profit Release Cycle

<ul><li>Ke Holdings’ (Beike) 4Q25 revenue declined 28.7% YoY to RMB22.2bn, inline with Bloomberg consensus and our forecast, and non-GAAP net profit reached RMB0.5bn in the quarter, down 61.5% YoY, ahead of our forecast at RMB0.4bn.</li><li>For 2025, Beike’s total revenue grew 1% YoY, while non-GAAP net profit was down 30% YoY due to industry headwinds.</li><li>For 2026E, we expect the cost optimization measures for core housing transaction business, combined with profitability improvement of new businesses to drive earnings recovery. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Ke Holdings’ (Beike) 4Q25 revenue declined 28.7% YoY to RMB22.2bn, inline with Bloomberg consensus and our forecast, and non-GAAP net profit reached RMB0.5bn in the quarter, down 61.5% YoY, ahead of our forecast at RMB0.4bn.For 2025, Beike’s total revenue grew 1% YoY, while non-GAAP net profit was down 30% YoY due to industry headwinds.For 2026E, we expect the cost optimization measures for core housing transaction business, combined with profitability improvement of new businesses to drive earnings recovery. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Ke Holdings (BEKE US) - Profitability Improvement on Track

<ul><li>For Ke Holdings’ (Beike) 4Q25 results, we are anticipating revenue of RMB22.2bn, down 28.5% YoY due to high base, and non-GAAP NP of RMB427mn, translating into NPM of 1.9%, after taking into account the impact from one-off cost reduction measures.</li><li>Our 4Q25E revenue and non-GAAP NP forecasts were in line with Bloomberg consensus if excluding the impact from one-off cost reduction measures.</li><li>We remain positive that Beike is well positioned to expand its market share in home transaction business, aided by its strong technological capability, superior service quality, and well-established agent cooperation network (ACN). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

For Ke Holdings’ (Beike) 4Q25 results, we are anticipating revenue of RMB22.2bn, down 28.5% YoY due to high base, and non-GAAP NP of RMB427mn, translating into NPM of 1.9%, after taking into account the impact from one-off cost reduction measures.Our 4Q25E revenue and non-GAAP NP forecasts were in line with Bloomberg consensus if excluding the impact from one-off cost reduction measures.We remain positive that Beike is well positioned to expand its market share in home transaction business, aided by its strong technological capability, superior service quality, and well-established agent cooperation network (ACN). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Ke Holdings (BEKE US) - Cost Reduction and New Business Profitability Improvement...

China

KE Holdings Inc. operates as an integrated online and offline platform for housing transactions and services. The Company offers existing and new home sales, home rentals, home renovation, real estate financial solutions, and other services. KE Holdings conducts businesses in China.

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KE Holdings (BEKE US)

Curator's Cut: Arbs Go A-H, Copper Plays & China's Property Pulse

In this cut, we explore A-H share trading dynamics, consider copper market dynamics and plays, and China's bottoming/stabilizing real estate market.

Pranav Rao

KE (BEKE US, 2423 HK): 2024 Result, Accelerating Quarter by Quarter, Upside Above 100%

Exhibiting home revenue recovered significantly in 4Q24, while new home revenue recovered from 3Q24. The growth rate of active stores and active...

Ming Lu