China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We expect BEKE C4Q22 revenue and non-GAAP NI to be 9% and 64% above consensus. The bottom line beat is a result of earning leverage;</li>
<li>We expect the market monthly EH/NH transaction volume to turn positive growth in C1H23, with resumed offline activities and continuing policy support as main drivers</li>
<li>We raise TP by US$1 to US$20: 1) dialling up GTV in 4Q22, 2) faster pace transaction recovery in 2023, and 3) rebase FX from 7.05 to 6.77 in valuation.</li>
</ul>


We expect BEKE C4Q22 revenue and non-GAAP NI to be 9% and 64% above consensus. The bottom line beat is a result of earning leverage;
We expect the market monthly EH/NH transaction volume to turn positive growth in C1H23, with resumed offline activities and continuing policy support as main drivers
We raise TP by US$1 to US$20: 1) dialling up GTV in 4Q22, 2) faster pace transaction recovery in 2023, and 3) rebase FX from 7.05 to 6.77 in valuation.


KE Holdings（BEKE.US) Preview:C4Q22 Marked the Beginning of 2023 Recovery

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

<ul>
<li>Beike's (BEKE) C1Q25 rev. beat our est./cons. by 4.6%/4.0% and non-GAAP NI beat est./cons. by 18%/25%, due to scale effect and cost savings;</li>
<li>The near-term negative is that US-China trade truce reducing the possibility of large-scale stimulus on real estate. The near-term positive is margin expansion. </li>
<li>We keep rating and TP unchanged. We see the US$1.2bn (5.0% market value) shareholder return commitment in 2025 as a major positive.</li>
</ul>


Beike's (BEKE) C1Q25 rev. beat our est./cons. by 4.6%/4.0% and non-GAAP NI beat est./cons. by 18%/25%, due to scale effect and cost savings;
The near-term negative is that US-China trade truce reducing the possibility of large-scale stimulus on real estate. The near-term positive is margin expansion. 
We keep rating and TP unchanged. We see the US$1.2bn (5.0% market value) shareholder return commitment in 2025 as a major positive.


[KE Holdings (BEKE US, BUY, TP US$25) Review]: Margin Expansion and SH Return Vs. Lack of Stimulus

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>In 1Q25, BEKE’s active stores increased by 29% YoY and total revenue increased by 42% YoY.</li>
<li>New home revenue and rental revenue grew by 64% YoY and 94% YoY in 1Q25.</li>
<li>We believe the stock price can double and is undervalued for the concerns on the general property market.</li>
</ul>


In 1Q25, BEKE’s active stores increased by 29% YoY and total revenue increased by 42% YoY.
New home revenue and rental revenue grew by 64% YoY and 94% YoY in 1Q25.
We believe the stock price can double and is undervalued for the concerns on the general property market.


KE (BEKE): In 1Q25, Rental and New Home Revenues Up by 94% and 64%

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>BEKE's 1Q25 results beat expectations, but outlook guidance raised concerns.</li><li>1Q25 revenue rose 42% YoY to RMB 23.3bn (+4%/+3% above Bloomberg consensus/CMBI estimates), mainly driven by new home (+64% YoY) and emerging biz (+46% YoY).</li><li>Non-GAAP net profit reached RMB 1.4bn in the quarter (flat YoY), beating Bloomberg/CMBI estimates by 22%/30%. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BEKE's 1Q25 results beat expectations, but outlook guidance raised concerns.1Q25 revenue rose 42% YoY to RMB 23.3bn (+4%/+3% above Bloomberg consensus/CMBI estimates), mainly driven by new home (+64% YoY) and emerging biz (+46% YoY).Non-GAAP net profit reached RMB 1.4bn in the quarter (flat YoY), beating Bloomberg/CMBI estimates by 22%/30%. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Ke Holdings (BEKE US) - 1Q25 Results Beat, but Moderate Outlook Guidance Raised Concerns

<ul><li>Property sales during Labor Day holiday (May 1-5) were solid with daily transaction volume for new homes in 30 cities/second-hand homes in 16 cities rising 28/162% YoY, respectively, demonstrating stable home-buying sentiment post the March peak without the market-feared cliff-like decline.</li><li>With a high base in 2Q25, we forecast existing home transaction/new home transaction (EHT/NHT) GTV growth of 14%/2% YoY to RMB650/240bn (vs.1Q25E: +26%/+43% YoY).</li><li>We are confident in revenue growth given the company’s active market share expansion but stay cautious on profitability due to elevated CSR-related expenses that will likely remain high in recent years, albeit creating non-negligible long-term value. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Property sales during Labor Day holiday (May 1-5) were solid with daily transaction volume for new homes in 30 cities/second-hand homes in 16 cities rising 28/162% YoY, respectively, demonstrating stable home-buying sentiment post the March peak without the market-feared cliff-like decline.With a high base in 2Q25, we forecast existing home transaction/new home transaction (EHT/NHT) GTV growth of 14%/2% YoY to RMB650/240bn (vs.1Q25E: +26%/+43% YoY).We are confident in revenue growth given the company’s active market share expansion but stay cautious on profitability due to elevated CSR-related expenses that will likely remain high in recent years, albeit creating non-negligible long-term value. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Ke Holdings (BEKE US) - Holiday Sales Suggest Stable Home-Buying Sentiment

China

KE Holdings Inc. operates as an integrated online and offline platform for housing transactions and services. The Company offers existing and new home sales, home rentals, home renovation, real estate financial solutions, and other services. KE Holdings conducts businesses in China.

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KE Holdings (BEKE US)