Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>The 200 largest weighted companies in the GEM index reported average EPS growth of +6.3%y/y for 1Q23-to-date, slightly down from the +7.5% reported for 4Q22.</li>
<li>Only 51% of companies delivered positive sales surprises, whilst 60% delivered positive EPS surprises, an increase from the trend seen over the past year.</li>
<li>Historically, there has been a significant difference in relative share price performance between the largest positive versus negative surprise generators, for 3 months after the reporting date.</li>
</ul>


The 200 largest weighted companies in the GEM index reported average EPS growth of +6.3%y/y for 1Q23-to-date, slightly down from the +7.5% reported for 4Q22.
Only 51% of companies delivered positive sales surprises, whilst 60% delivered positive EPS surprises, an increase from the trend seen over the past year.
Historically, there has been a significant difference in relative share price performance between the largest positive versus negative surprise generators, for 3 months after the reporting date.


Global Emerging Markets: Reporting Season Summary, 1Q2023

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Tencent has been busy distributing shares in some of its investments over the past two years, with JD.com’s distribution announced in 2021 and Meituan’s in 2022.</li>
<li>In our earlier note in 2022, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tencent-investee-selldown-the-us-120bn-global-overhang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:81153" rel="noopener">Tencent Investee Selldown - The US$120bn Global Overhang</a>, we had looked at its overall investment portfolio.</li>
<li>With two of its large investments spun-out, we now re-look at Tencent’s shareholding in various companies to try and gauge which ones it could sell out of and how. </li>
</ul>


Tencent has been busy distributing shares in some of its investments over the past two years, with JD.com’s distribution announced in 2021 and Meituan’s in 2022.
In our earlier note in 2022, Tencent Investee Selldown - The US$120bn Global Overhang, we had looked at its overall investment portfolio.
With two of its large investments spun-out, we now re-look at Tencent’s shareholding in various companies to try and gauge which ones it could sell out of and how. 


Tencent Investee Selldown - JD.com Done, Meituan Done, Two More Still Left

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>BEKE (Beike) reported 1Q23 revenue 10.4%/12.2% vs our est./cons. non-GAAP net income 65.6%/60.9% higher than our est./cons.</li>
<li>Although Beike has stated no intention to lower existing home (EH) commission rate, we still expect EH commission rate to slightly trend down in 2023. </li>
<li>We maintain BUY rating and raise the TP by US$1 to US$22 to reflect 1) steady recovery of property sales in China; 2) better outlook on profitability.</li>
</ul>


BEKE (Beike) reported 1Q23 revenue 10.4%/12.2% vs our est./cons. non-GAAP net income 65.6%/60.9% higher than our est./cons.
Although Beike has stated no intention to lower existing home (EH) commission rate, we still expect EH commission rate to slightly trend down in 2023. 
We maintain BUY rating and raise the TP by US$1 to US$22 to reflect 1) steady recovery of property sales in China; 2) better outlook on profitability.


[KE Holdings (BEKE US) Target Price Change]: Operating Leverage Starts to Kick In, Maintain BUY

<ul>
<li>China government guided no commission capping on real estate brokerage business, but the ladder-pricing system may lead to moderate commission rate reduction for Beike.</li>
<li>We estimate that 0.1% of Lianjia commission rate cut can imply to 1.2% of revenue reduction for Beike in 2023. </li>
<li>Therefore, we lowered revenue by (2.8%) and net income by (5.3%) to factor in the potential changes.  We maintain BUY rating but cut the TP by US$2 to US$21.  </li>
</ul>


China government guided no commission capping on real estate brokerage business, but the ladder-pricing system may lead to moderate commission rate reduction for Beike.
We estimate that 0.1% of Lianjia commission rate cut can imply to 1.2% of revenue reduction for Beike in 2023. 
Therefore, we lowered revenue by (2.8%) and net income by (5.3%) to factor in the potential changes.  We maintain BUY rating but cut the TP by US$2 to US$21.  


[KE Holdings Inc. (BEKE US) Target Price Change]: Government Clears the Commission Uncertainties

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>In Q1 2023, 86 different Hong Kong-listed companies bought back shares either locally or on foreign exchanges. Total buybacks were HK$22.856bn.</li>
<li>8 Companies made up 90% of the total. On average, they bought back shares 4 days out of every 10 within the quarter. </li>
<li>A lot of the smaller companies doing buybacks were significant portions of their volume.</li>
</ul>


In Q1 2023, 86 different Hong Kong-listed companies bought back shares either locally or on foreign exchanges. Total buybacks were HK$22.856bn.
8 Companies made up 90% of the total. On average, they bought back shares 4 days out of every 10 within the quarter. 
A lot of the smaller companies doing buybacks were significant portions of their volume.


HK Buybacks Q1 2023: 8 Names Are 90% of the Total - AIA, Tencent, StanChart, Greatwall the Big 4

China

KE Holdings Inc. operates as an integrated online and offline platform for housing transactions and services. The Company offers existing and new home sales, home rentals, home renovation, real estate financial solutions, and other services. KE Holdings conducts businesses in China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

KE Holdings (BEKE US)

Global Emerging Markets: Reporting Season Summary, 1Q2023

In this quarterly insight, we analyse recent GEM reporting trends with reference to Sales and EPS growth, size and percentage of positive...

Wium Malan, CFA

Tencent Investee Selldown - JD.com Done, Meituan Done, Two More Still Left

Tencent has been distributing shares in some of its investments over the past two years. In this note, we look at which of its remaining investee...

Sumeet Singh