Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Beike (BEKE) reported C3Q24 revenue in-line with our estimate and consensus but non-GAAP operating profit 26%/25% below, mainly due to higher commission rebate and agent salaries;</li>
<li>Strong rebound in home transaction volumes in October and November, led to our C4Q24 revenue 16% above consensus. But the rebound needs more stimulus to sustain;</li>
<li>We maintain the stock as BUY and raise TP to US$25 to reflect the near term rebound and steady market share gains.</li>
</ul>


Beike (BEKE) reported C3Q24 revenue in-line with our estimate and consensus but non-GAAP operating profit 26%/25% below, mainly due to higher commission rebate and agent salaries;
Strong rebound in home transaction volumes in October and November, led to our C4Q24 revenue 16% above consensus. But the rebound needs more stimulus to sustain;
We maintain the stock as BUY and raise TP to US$25 to reflect the near term rebound and steady market share gains.


[KE Holdings Inc. (BEKE US, BUY, TP US$25) TP Change]: C3Q24 Review: C4Q24 Rebound but What’s Next?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Beike reported (21 Nov) 3Q24 results: revenue increased 27% YoY to RMB22.6bn, 1.5%/4.7% below Bloomberg consensus/CMBI estimates, mainly due to the mixed performance where existing home GTV (EHT) was dragged by low home transaction sentiment and new home transactions (NHT) were benefited from market share gains.</li><li>Non-GAAP net income was RMB1.8bn, representing a margin of 7.9%, in-line with both our estimates and consensus, thanks to fee controlling measures. We remain positive on Beike given its continuously increasing market share in EHT &amp; NHT businesses and smooth expansion of new business.</li><li>Our SOTP-based target price is lifted to US$23.3 (was US$21.5), including US$22.3 for Beike Core and US$0.9 for Shengdu, translating into 21.4x 2025E PE (non-GAAP). Maintain BUY</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Beike reported (21 Nov) 3Q24 results: revenue increased 27% YoY to RMB22.6bn, 1.5%/4.7% below Bloomberg consensus/CMBI estimates, mainly due to the mixed performance where existing home GTV (EHT) was dragged by low home transaction sentiment and new home transactions (NHT) were benefited from market share gains.Non-GAAP net income was RMB1.8bn, representing a margin of 7.9%, in-line with both our estimates and consensus, thanks to fee controlling measures. We remain positive on Beike given its continuously increasing market share in EHT &amp; NHT businesses and smooth expansion of new business.Our SOTP-based target price is lifted to US$23.3 (was US$21.5), including US$22.3 for Beike Core and US$0.9 for Shengdu, translating into 21.4x 2025E PE (non-GAAP). Maintain BUYContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Ke Holdings (BEKE US) - To Ride on the Policy Tailwind in 4Q

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The WisdomTree Emerging Markets ex-State-Owned Enterprises Index measures the performance of emerging markets stocks that are not state-owned enterprises.</li>
<li>The changes at the October rebalance were announced after market close on 4 October with implementation scheduled at the close on 16 October.</li>
<li>There are 154 adds and 80 deletes for the index with an estimated round-trip trade of US$300m.</li>
</ul>


The WisdomTree Emerging Markets ex-State-Owned Enterprises Index measures the performance of emerging markets stocks that are not state-owned enterprises.
The changes at the October rebalance were announced after market close on 4 October with implementation scheduled at the close on 16 October.
There are 154 adds and 80 deletes for the index with an estimated round-trip trade of US$300m.


WisdomTree Emerging Markets Ex-State-Owned Enterprises Index Rebalance: US$300m Round-Trip Trade

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>In 2Q24, KE’s revenue grew by 20% YoY despite the weak property market.</li>
<li>We believe property developers and personal landlords need KE more than the prosperous time.</li>
<li>We believe the stock has an upside of 148% for the end of 2025. Buy.</li>
</ul>


In 2Q24, KE’s revenue grew by 20% YoY despite the weak property market.
We believe property developers and personal landlords need KE more than the prosperous time.
We believe the stock has an upside of 148% for the end of 2025. Buy.


KE (BEKE US): Why Earning Money in Weak Market

<ul>
<li>China Literature’s revenue increased by 28% YoY in 1H24, because four novel copyrights for movies brought box office hits.</li>
<li>KE revenue increased by 20% YoY in 2Q24 compared with a 19% YoY decrease in 1Q24, as government policies supported existing home transaction.</li>
<li>Alibaba announced that it will recruit 1,000 fresh graduates for tech positions in 2025.</li>
</ul>


China Literature’s revenue increased by 28% YoY in 1H24, because four novel copyrights for movies brought box office hits.
KE revenue increased by 20% YoY in 2Q24 compared with a 19% YoY decrease in 1Q24, as government policies supported existing home transaction.
Alibaba announced that it will recruit 1,000 fresh graduates for tech positions in 2025.


China Consumption Weekly (19Aug2024): China Literature, BEKE, Alibaba, JD, JD Health, Tencent Music

China

KE Holdings Inc. operates as an integrated online and offline platform for housing transactions and services. The Company offers existing and new home sales, home rentals, home renovation, real estate financial solutions, and other services. KE Holdings conducts businesses in China.

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KE Holdings (BEKE US)

[KE Holdings Inc. (BEKE US, BUY, TP US$25) TP Change]: C3Q24 Review: C4Q24 Rebound but What’s Next?

Beike (BEKE) reports in-line revenue but lower operating profit, with a strong rebound in home transaction volumes leading to increased revenue....

Blue Lotus Research Institute