Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The Chinese economy looks weak according to the data from the statistics bureau.</li>
<li>However, many big Chinese internet companies began to recover in Q2 as we mentioned in August.</li>
<li>Here we list five recovering companies that investors may not pay attention to.</li>
</ul>


The Chinese economy looks weak according to the data from the statistics bureau.
However, many big Chinese internet companies began to recover in Q2 as we mentioned in August.
Here we list five recovering companies that investors may not pay attention to.


China Internet Weekly (4Sep2023): Quarterly Results See Growing – BIDU, VIPS, ZTO, Giant, BEKE

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>KE Holdings (Beike) reported 2Q23 GTV 5.6% lower than our estimate, revenue (2.6%)/0.4% vs. our estimate/consensus, and non-GAAP NI 21.8%/42.9% higher than our estimate/consensus. </li>
<li>We think 3Q23 is the trough and expect a rebound in 4Q23 as more substantial supportive policies laying out in China. </li>
<li>We maintain the stock as BUY rating and raised TP by US$2 to US$24/ADS</li>
</ul>


KE Holdings (Beike) reported 2Q23 GTV 5.6% lower than our estimate, revenue (2.6%)/0.4% vs. our estimate/consensus, and non-GAAP NI 21.8%/42.9% higher than our estimate/consensus. 
We think 3Q23 is the trough and expect a rebound in 4Q23 as more substantial supportive policies laying out in China. 
We maintain the stock as BUY rating and raised TP by US$2 to US$24/ADS


[KE (BEKE US, BUY, TP US$24) TP Change]: Silver Lining Appear in Industry Cycle, Maintain BUY

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Beike reported (31 Aug) 2Q23 financial results: total revenue was up 41.4% YoY to RMB19.5bn in 2Q23, inline with our forecast and Bloomberg consensus estimates.</li><li>Non-GAAP net income was RMB2.4bn, 34/43% better than our forecast/consensus estimate, which translates into a 12.1% NPM (our estimate: 9.1%), thanks to continuous operating efficiency improvement.</li><li>Given the fluctuation in macro recovery, and that the stimulus policy takes time to transit into housing sales recovery, management guided 3Q23 revenue to be between RMB15.5bn and RMB16.0bn, implying a decline of 9.1-11.9% YoY and 18-20% QoQ. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Beike reported (31 Aug) 2Q23 financial results: total revenue was up 41.4% YoY to RMB19.5bn in 2Q23, inline with our forecast and Bloomberg consensus estimates.Non-GAAP net income was RMB2.4bn, 34/43% better than our forecast/consensus estimate, which translates into a 12.1% NPM (our estimate: 9.1%), thanks to continuous operating efficiency improvement.Given the fluctuation in macro recovery, and that the stimulus policy takes time to transit into housing sales recovery, management guided 3Q23 revenue to be between RMB15.5bn and RMB16.0bn, implying a decline of 9.1-11.9% YoY and 18-20% QoQ. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Ke Holdings (BEKE US) – Short-Term Headwind, but Bottoming Out Is in Sight

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>The 200 largest weighted companies in the GEM index reported average EPS growth of +6.3%y/y for 1Q23-to-date, slightly down from the +7.5% reported for 4Q22.</li>
<li>Only 51% of companies delivered positive sales surprises, whilst 60% delivered positive EPS surprises, an increase from the trend seen over the past year.</li>
<li>Historically, there has been a significant difference in relative share price performance between the largest positive versus negative surprise generators, for 3 months after the reporting date.</li>
</ul>


The 200 largest weighted companies in the GEM index reported average EPS growth of +6.3%y/y for 1Q23-to-date, slightly down from the +7.5% reported for 4Q22.
Only 51% of companies delivered positive sales surprises, whilst 60% delivered positive EPS surprises, an increase from the trend seen over the past year.
Historically, there has been a significant difference in relative share price performance between the largest positive versus negative surprise generators, for 3 months after the reporting date.


Global Emerging Markets: Reporting Season Summary, 1Q2023

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Tencent has been busy distributing shares in some of its investments over the past two years, with JD.com’s distribution announced in 2021 and Meituan’s in 2022.</li>
<li>In our earlier note in 2022, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tencent-investee-selldown-the-us-120bn-global-overhang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:81153" rel="noopener">Tencent Investee Selldown - The US$120bn Global Overhang</a>, we had looked at its overall investment portfolio.</li>
<li>With two of its large investments spun-out, we now re-look at Tencent’s shareholding in various companies to try and gauge which ones it could sell out of and how. </li>
</ul>


Tencent has been busy distributing shares in some of its investments over the past two years, with JD.com’s distribution announced in 2021 and Meituan’s in 2022.
In our earlier note in 2022, Tencent Investee Selldown - The US$120bn Global Overhang, we had looked at its overall investment portfolio.
With two of its large investments spun-out, we now re-look at Tencent’s shareholding in various companies to try and gauge which ones it could sell out of and how. 


Tencent Investee Selldown - JD.com Done, Meituan Done, Two More Still Left

China

KE Holdings Inc. operates as an integrated online and offline platform for housing transactions and services. The Company offers existing and new home sales, home rentals, home renovation, real estate financial solutions, and other services. KE Holdings conducts businesses in China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

KE Holdings (BEKE US)

China Internet Weekly (4Sep2023): Quarterly Results See Growing – BIDU, VIPS, ZTO, Giant, BEKE

The macroeconomy looks weak. However, big Chinese internet giants began to recover. Here we list five small companies that the market may neglect.

Ming Lu

[KE (BEKE US, BUY, TP US$24) TP Change]: Silver Lining Appear in Industry Cycle, Maintain BUY

We think 3Q23 is the trough and expect a rebound in 4Q23 as more substantial supportive policies laying out in China. We maintain the stock as BUY...

Blue Lotus Research Institute