India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Power Grid Corporation of India (PGCIL) has barred KEC from new tenders for nine months starting November 18, 2025, though ongoing Rs.39,000 crore plus projects is unaffected.</li>
<li>KEC's diverse orders limit PGCIL's impact, PGCIL's share in new orders is only 4% YTD, much lower than last year.</li>
<li>KEC's Q2 success counters the PGCIL ban. With strong Q2 results and 8% FY26 margin guidance, the focus is now on execution and cash flow from its global pipeline.</li>
</ul>


Power Grid Corporation of India (PGCIL) has barred KEC from new tenders for nine months starting November 18, 2025, though ongoing Rs.39,000 crore plus projects is unaffected.
KEC's diverse orders limit PGCIL's impact, PGCIL's share in new orders is only 4% YTD, much lower than last year.
KEC's Q2 success counters the PGCIL ban. With strong Q2 results and 8% FY26 margin guidance, the focus is now on execution and cash flow from its global pipeline.


Temporary Shock, Structural Strength: Why KEC’s Upcycle Still Holds

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Healthy Order Backlog Ensuring Revenue Visibility: As of 30th Sep 2025, the company’s order book stood at Rs 39,325 Cr.</li><li>Additionally, it holds an L1 position in projects worth Rs 5,000 Cr, primarily in the T&amp;D segment, offering strong revenue visibility over the next 18–24 months.</li><li>Backed by its proven execution capabilities and the government’s continued emphasis on infrastructure development, the company remains well-placed to deliver consistent growth, projecting a 16% CAGR between FY25 and FY27E.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Healthy Order Backlog Ensuring Revenue Visibility: As of 30th Sep 2025, the company’s order book stood at Rs 39,325 Cr.Additionally, it holds an L1 position in projects worth Rs 5,000 Cr, primarily in the T&amp;D segment, offering strong revenue visibility over the next 18–24 months.Backed by its proven execution capabilities and the government’s continued emphasis on infrastructure development, the company remains well-placed to deliver consistent growth, projecting a 16% CAGR between FY25 and FY27E.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

KEC International Ltd - Margin Improvement to Continue; Retain BUY

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>NHAI awarding picks up pace, but subpar: In FY26, we saw some pick-up in awards but much lower than expectation at ~2,100km vs 4,500km target</li><li>This resulted in players like GR and KNR winning few projects but not enough to meet guidance</li><li>For our road coverage universe, awards win has been around 50% of the guidance</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NHAI awarding picks up pace, but subpar: In FY26, we saw some pick-up in awards but much lower than expectation at ~2,100km vs 4,500km targetThis resulted in players like GR and KNR winning few projects but not enough to meet guidanceFor our road coverage universe, awards win has been around 50% of the guidanceContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Industrials (Q4FY26 Results Preview): Domestic recovery, geopolitical headwinds

<ul>
<li>India's power equipment manufacturers are collectively committing roughly INR 32,000 crore to new factories and capacity upgrades, the largest manufacturing investment wave the sector has seen in decades.</li>
<li>Peak electricity demand hit a record 250 GW in FY25 and is heading toward 458 GW by 2032, creating an order environment that manufacturers cannot fulfill with existing infrastructure alone.</li>
<li>This is not a single big-ticket NTPC-style investment, but dozens of simultaneous factory expansions across the power value chain funded majorly by internal accrual shocasing their confidence.</li>
</ul>


India's power equipment manufacturers are collectively committing roughly INR 32,000 crore to new factories and capacity upgrades, the largest manufacturing investment wave the sector has seen in decades.
Peak electricity demand hit a record 250 GW in FY25 and is heading toward 458 GW by 2032, creating an order environment that manufacturers cannot fulfill with existing infrastructure alone.
This is not a single big-ticket NTPC-style investment, but dozens of simultaneous factory expansions across the power value chain funded majorly by internal accrual shocasing their confidence.


India’s Energy Sector ₹32,000 Cr Capex Surge: Decoding the Value Chain

<ul><li>NHAI awarding key for road players, all focus on budget: In 9MFY26, we haven’t seen any pick-up in road awards as NHAI ordering remains subpar</li><li>Award pipeline remains on paper with BOT at 20%, EPC 10%, and HAM 70%</li><li>The only silver lining is bids are not getting postponed and are getting finalized</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NHAI awarding key for road players, all focus on budget: In 9MFY26, we haven’t seen any pick-up in road awards as NHAI ordering remains subparAward pipeline remains on paper with BOT at 20%, EPC 10%, and HAM 70%The only silver lining is bids are not getting postponed and are getting finalizedContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Industrials (Q3FY26 Results Preview): Domestic ordering early cycle recovery

India

KEC International is an Indian multinational company and a global Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) major. It specializes in power transmission and distribution, railways, civil, urban infrastructure, oil and gas pipelines, renewables, and cables. The company also manufactures electric power transmission towers and a range of power and special-purpose cables. KEC International is headquartered in Mumbai, India, and was founded on May 7, 1945.

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KEC International (KECI IN)

Temporary Shock, Structural Strength: Why KEC’s Upcycle Still Holds

PGCIL bars KEC from new tenders for 9 months, but ongoing projects unaffected. KEC's diverse orders limit impact, with strong Q2 results and focus...

Sudarshan Bhandari

KEC International Ltd - Margin Improvement to Continue; Retain BUY

Healthy Order Backlog Ensuring Revenue Visibility: As of 30th Sep 2025, the company’s order book stood at Rs 39,325 Cr. Additionally, it holds an...

Axis Direct

Industrials (Q4FY26 Results Preview): Domestic recovery, geopolitical headwinds

NHAI awarding picks up pace, but subpar: In FY26, we saw some pick-up in awards but much lower than expectation at ~2,100km vs 4,500km target

HDFC Securities

India’s Energy Sector ₹32,000 Cr Capex Surge: Decoding the Value Chain

India's power equipment manufacturers are investing INR 32,000 crore in new factories and upgrades to meet rising electricity demand, signaling a...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Industrials (Q3FY26 Results Preview): Domestic ordering early cycle recovery

NHAI awarding key for road players, all focus on budget: In 9MFY26, we haven’t seen any pick-up in road awards as NHAI ordering remains subpar

HDFC Securities

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Temporary Shock, Structural Strength: Why KEC’s Upcycle Still Holds

​PGCIL bars KEC from new tenders for 9 months, but ongoing projects unaffected. KEC's diverse orders limit impact, with strong Q2 results and focus...

Sudarshan Bhandari

KEC International Ltd - Margin Improvement to Continue; Retain BUY

Healthy Order Backlog Ensuring Revenue Visibility: As of 30th Sep 2025, the company’s order book stood at Rs 39,325 Cr. Additionally, it holds an...

Axis Direct

Industrials (Q4FY26 Results Preview): Domestic recovery, geopolitical headwinds

NHAI awarding picks up pace, but subpar: In FY26, we saw some pick-up in awards but much lower than expectation at ~2,100km vs 4,500km target

HDFC Securities

India’s Energy Sector ₹32,000 Cr Capex Surge: Decoding the Value Chain

​India's power equipment manufacturers are investing INR 32,000 crore in new factories and upgrades to meet rising electricity demand, signaling a...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Industrials (Q3FY26 Results Preview): Domestic ordering early cycle recovery

NHAI awarding key for road players, all focus on budget: In 9MFY26, we haven’t seen any pick-up in road awards as NHAI ordering remains subpar

HDFC Securities

PGCIL bars KEC from new tenders for 9 months, but ongoing projects unaffected. KEC's diverse orders limit impact, with strong Q2 results and focus...

India's power equipment manufacturers are investing INR 32,000 crore in new factories and upgrades to meet rising electricity demand, signaling a...