Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>We use quantamental screens to identify overvalued stocks in Asia, with weak fundamentals – consistently low earnings growth, forecast return ratios less than cost of capital, and over-leveraged balance sheets.</li>
<li>We screen Asia-listed stocks above US$1bn market cap on declining EPS CAGR over next 2 years, less than 10% ROE, higher than 1x PEG and P/BV, more than 80% D/E.</li>
<li>We identify 30 stocks: 11 from HK/China, 9 from Japan, 4 from Taiwan, 3 from India, and one each from Korea, Malaysia and Singapore. Financials, property, industrials dominate the list.</li>
</ul>


We use quantamental screens to identify overvalued stocks in Asia, with weak fundamentals – consistently low earnings growth, forecast return ratios less than cost of capital, and over-leveraged balance sheets.
We screen Asia-listed stocks above US$1bn market cap on declining EPS CAGR over next 2 years, less than 10% ROE, higher than 1x PEG and P/BV, more than 80% D/E.
We identify 30 stocks: 11 from HK/China, 9 from Japan, 4 from Taiwan, 3 from India, and one each from Korea, Malaysia and Singapore. Financials, property, industrials dominate the list.


Asian Equities: The Overvalued, Low Growth, Over-Leveraged Stocks

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). We've been bullish since early-November 2023, save for a two month period from late-July to late-September 2024 when we were neutral.</li>
<li>We also believe the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields have put in major tops, which is a crucial risk-on signal for global equities.</li>
<li>With more and more countries breaking out, we remain bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $116, S&amp;P 500 is above 5770-5850, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 5030.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). We've been bullish since early-November 2023, save for a two month period from late-July to late-September 2024 when we were neutral.
We also believe the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields have put in major tops, which is a crucial risk-on signal for global equities.
With more and more countries breaking out, we remain bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $116, S&amp;P 500 is above 5770-5850, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 5030.


Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a></strong> gained 13.8% yesterday on news that activist investor Murakami-san had acquired a stake.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Keisei Electric are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) gained 13.8% yesterday on news that activist investor Murakami-san had acquired a stake.
Preceding my comments on Keisei Electric are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Keisei Electric's Big Gain On Activist Stake News

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>13mos ago, activist investor Palliser Capital spoke at a conference about the value offered by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a> due to its large stake in Oriental Land (4661). </li>
<li>Keisei outperformed OLC by 30% over 3.5mos. Then it fell all the way back, and more, over the next five months. Asset sale, buyback, AGM proposals. Meh. </li>
<li>Nov 25th, Toyo Keizai <a href="https://toyokeizai.net/articles/-/842158" target="_blank" rel="noopener">wrote</a> activist Murakami-san had acquired stakes of &lt;5% in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keikyu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3371:1" rel="noopener">Keikyu Corp (9006 JP)</a> and &lt;1% in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a>. Shares in both jumped.</li>
</ul>


13mos ago, activist investor Palliser Capital spoke at a conference about the value offered by Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) due to its large stake in Oriental Land (4661). 
Keisei outperformed OLC by 30% over 3.5mos. Then it fell all the way back, and more, over the next five months. Asset sale, buyback, AGM proposals. Meh. 
Nov 25th, Toyo Keizai wrote activist Murakami-san had acquired stakes of &lt;5% in Keikyu Corp (9006 JP) and &lt;1% in Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP). Shares in both jumped.


[JAPAN ACTIVISM] Keisei Elec (9009) - Murakami Stake Causes Pop But the Oppty Is Still Unconvincing

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Tech strong despite market rotating out of NVDA, with EV related gaining on Cali plan.</li>
<li>Home builders surge on Bessent's nomination; expect a strong follow through for JP related plays.</li>
<li>Activists are on the hunt in Japan - how long before someone starts building a stake in Kyocera?</li>
</ul>


Tech strong despite market rotating out of NVDA, with EV related gaining on Cali plan.
Home builders surge on Bessent's nomination; expect a strong follow through for JP related plays.
Activists are on the hunt in Japan - how long before someone starts building a stake in Kyocera?


Japan Morning Connection: Time to Revisit the Most Bungled Conglomerate Left Standing?

Japan

Keikyu Corporation provides rail and bus mass transit services in Tokyo, Yokohama, and the Miura Peninsula.  The Company also has non-transportation interests including real estate development, hotel operation, leisure facilities and supermarket chain operation in the vicinity of its railway system.

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Keikyu Corp (9006 JP)

Asian Equities: The Overvalued, Low Growth, Over-Leveraged Stocks

Quantamental screens reveal overvalued Asian stocks with low earnings growth, low return ratios, and high leverage. 30 stocks identified across...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar $DXY = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI despite near-term downside risk. We remain bullish if $ACWI > $116,...

Vermilion Research

StubWorld: Keisei Electric's Big Gain On Activist Stake News

Oriental Land (4661 JP) has announced a ToSTNeT-3 buyback of 18mm shares (0.99% of shares out),. Keisei will sell, yet will keep OLC as an equity...

David Blennerhassett

[JAPAN ACTIVISM] Keisei Elec (9009) - Murakami Stake Causes Pop But the Oppty Is Still Unconvincing

Toyo Keizai put out an article on Keisei based on a quote from a "market insider". Keisei shares popped 16% in 2 days. There's value, but less than...

Travis Lundy

Japan Morning Connection: Time to Revisit the Most Bungled Conglomerate Left Standing?

Tech strong despite market shift away from NVDA,. Home builders surge on Bessent's nomination, Kyocera ripe for activist involvement.

Andrew Jackson

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Asian Equities: The Overvalued, Low Growth, Over-Leveraged Stocks

​Quantamental screens reveal overvalued Asian stocks with low earnings growth, low return ratios, and high leverage. 30 stocks identified across...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar $DXY = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI despite near-term downside risk. We remain bullish if $ACWI > $116,...

Vermilion Research

StubWorld: Keisei Electric's Big Gain On Activist Stake News

Oriental Land (4661 JP) has announced a ToSTNeT-3 buyback of 18mm shares (0.99% of shares out),. Keisei will sell, yet will keep OLC as an equity...

David Blennerhassett

[JAPAN ACTIVISM] Keisei Elec (9009) - Murakami Stake Causes Pop But the Oppty Is Still Unconvincing

Toyo Keizai put out an article on Keisei based on a quote from a "market insider". Keisei shares popped 16% in 2 days. There's value, but less than...

Travis Lundy

Japan Morning Connection: Time to Revisit the Most Bungled Conglomerate Left Standing?

​Tech strong despite market shift away from NVDA,. Home builders surge on Bessent's nomination, Kyocera ripe for activist involvement.

Andrew Jackson

Quantamental screens reveal overvalued Asian stocks with low earnings growth, low return ratios, and high leverage. 30 stocks identified across...

Tech strong despite market shift away from NVDA,. Home builders surge on Bessent's nomination, Kyocera ripe for activist involvement.