Founder and CEO, Europacifica Consulting

Naomi Fink

Founder and CEO

Europacifica Consulting

Macroeconomics

<p>In the shadow of the EU referendum, rising support for conservative political factions among disaffected voters seems to have rubbed off on Japan, otherwise not known for exciting electoral outcomes, of late.<br><br> Indeed, we must go back to 2003 to cite an example of where dollar-yen moved more than 1% in either direction in the wake of a Japanese election (moreover, in 2003 this was a Lower House election, generally of greater impact upon Japanese legislation).  The Nikkei 225 has tended to be…</p>

In the shadow of the EU referendum, rising support for conservative political factions among disaffected voters seems to have rubbed off on Japan, otherwise not known for exciting electoral outcomes, of late.   Indeed, we must go back to 2003 to cite an example of where dollar-yen moved more than 1% in either direction in the wake of a Japanese election (moreover, in 2003 this was a Lower House election, generally of greater impact upon Japanese legislation).  The Nikkei 225 has tended to be…

Japanese Elections: "Abenomics" Versus a Move to the Right

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 39 adds/34 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 6.7% and a round-trip trade of JPY 946bn (US$6.4bn).</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes over the last year and there has been a move higher in the last few days too.</li>
</ul>


There are 39 adds/34 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 6.7% and a round-trip trade of JPY 946bn (US$6.4bn).
The adds have outperformed the deletes over the last year and there has been a move higher in the last few days too.


JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: US$6.4bn Round-Trip Trade Coming Up

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a> shares fell 52% from February 2024 peak, with losses deepening after its conservative mid-term plan and the failed activist board proposal in June 2025.</li>
<li>However, we believe the company’s mid-term guidance is overly conservative and underestimates the company's underlying earnings potential</li>
<li>With depressed valuation, fare-driven revenue growth, and volume recovery potential, we see limited downside and an appealing opportunity for medium-term price appreciation.</li>
</ul>



Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) shares fell 52% from February 2024 peak, with losses deepening after its conservative mid-term plan and the failed activist board proposal in June 2025.
However, we believe the company’s mid-term guidance is overly conservative and underestimates the company's underlying earnings potential
With depressed valuation, fare-driven revenue growth, and volume recovery potential, we see limited downside and an appealing opportunity for medium-term price appreciation.


Keisei Electric Railway: Oversold on Caution, Not on Fundamentals

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>Keisei’s OLC stake distorts valuation optics, but is already transparently priced by the market.</li>
<li>Activist criticism over “true” ROE reflects accounting semantics, not hidden inefficiency.</li>
<li>Core business plus OLC stake offers modest returns; upside exists, but hardly suggestive of chronic long-term underperformance</li>
</ul>


Keisei’s OLC stake distorts valuation optics, but is already transparently priced by the market.
Activist criticism over “true” ROE reflects accounting semantics, not hidden inefficiency.
Core business plus OLC stake offers modest returns; upside exists, but hardly suggestive of chronic long-term underperformance


Keisei Electric (9009) | Neither Hidden nor Structurally Mispriced

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>Post COVID investors have been monitoring <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a> as part of the shareholder activism program. </li>
<li>Recently, the management has announced a share buyback of up to 8 million shares. In 2022, they bought back 5 million shares, and the share price rallied 21% that year. </li>
<li>It currently trades at 6x PER while Topix trades at 14x PER. </li>
</ul>


Post COVID investors have been monitoring Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) as part of the shareholder activism program. 
Recently, the management has announced a share buyback of up to 8 million shares. In 2022, they bought back 5 million shares, and the share price rallied 21% that year. 
It currently trades at 6x PER while Topix trades at 14x PER. 


Japan

Keisei Electric Railway Co., Ltd. provides passenger rail and bus transportation services in the Metropolitan Tokyo and Chiba prefecture areas.  The Company operates department and supermarket stores, hotels, travel agents, movie theater and restaurants, and sells, leases, and maintains real estate.  Keisei Electric is a shareholder of Oriental Land Co., Ltd. which operates Tokyo Disneyland.

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Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)

Japanese Elections: "Abenomics" Versus a Move to the Right

In the shadow of the EU referendum, rising support for conservative political factions among disaffected voters seems to have rubbed off on Japan,...

Naomi Fink

JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: US$6.4bn Round-Trip Trade Coming Up

There are 39 adds/34 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index resulting in a one-way turnover of 6.7% and a round-trip trade of JPY 946bn (US$6.4bn)....

Brian Freitas

Keisei Electric Railway: Oversold on Caution, Not on Fundamentals

We see near-term weakness in Keisei as unjustified, with profit growth supporting upside from a historically low valuation.

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Keisei Electric (9009) | Neither Hidden nor Structurally Mispriced

Keisei's OLC stake distorts valuation but market has already priced it in; activist criticism on ROE is accounting semantics, not inefficiency;...

Mark Chadwick

Keisei Electric (9009): Buyback

The management of Keise Electric has recently announced a share buyback of up to 8 million shares. In 2022, they bought back 5 million shares, and...

Henry Soediarko

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japanese Elections: "Abenomics" Versus a Move to the Right

In the shadow of the EU referendum, rising support for conservative political factions among disaffected voters seems to have rubbed off on Japan,...

Naomi Fink

JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: US$6.4bn Round-Trip Trade Coming Up

There are 39 adds/34 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index resulting in a one-way turnover of 6.7% and a round-trip trade of JPY 946bn (US$6.4bn)....

Brian Freitas

Keisei Electric Railway: Oversold on Caution, Not on Fundamentals

We see near-term weakness in Keisei as unjustified, with profit growth supporting upside from a historically low valuation.

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Keisei Electric (9009) | Neither Hidden nor Structurally Mispriced

​Keisei's OLC stake distorts valuation but market has already priced it in; activist criticism on ROE is accounting semantics, not inefficiency;...

Mark Chadwick

Keisei Electric (9009): Buyback

The management of Keise Electric has recently announced a share buyback of up to 8 million shares. In 2022, they bought back 5 million shares, and...

Henry Soediarko

Keisei's OLC stake distorts valuation but market has already priced it in; activist criticism on ROE is accounting semantics, not inefficiency;...