Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a> shares fell 52% from February 2024 peak, with losses deepening after its conservative mid-term plan and the failed activist board proposal in June 2025.</li>
<li>However, we believe the company’s mid-term guidance is overly conservative and underestimates the company's underlying earnings potential</li>
<li>With depressed valuation, fare-driven revenue growth, and volume recovery potential, we see limited downside and an appealing opportunity for medium-term price appreciation.</li>
</ul>



Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) shares fell 52% from February 2024 peak, with losses deepening after its conservative mid-term plan and the failed activist board proposal in June 2025.
However, we believe the company’s mid-term guidance is overly conservative and underestimates the company's underlying earnings potential
With depressed valuation, fare-driven revenue growth, and volume recovery potential, we see limited downside and an appealing opportunity for medium-term price appreciation.


Keisei Electric Railway: Oversold on Caution, Not on Fundamentals

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>Keisei’s OLC stake distorts valuation optics, but is already transparently priced by the market.</li>
<li>Activist criticism over “true” ROE reflects accounting semantics, not hidden inefficiency.</li>
<li>Core business plus OLC stake offers modest returns; upside exists, but hardly suggestive of chronic long-term underperformance</li>
</ul>


Keisei’s OLC stake distorts valuation optics, but is already transparently priced by the market.
Activist criticism over “true” ROE reflects accounting semantics, not hidden inefficiency.
Core business plus OLC stake offers modest returns; upside exists, but hardly suggestive of chronic long-term underperformance


Keisei Electric (9009) | Neither Hidden nor Structurally Mispriced

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

<ul>
<li>2025 will start with more attractive turnaround opportunities than we have seen in a long time. </li>
<li>An uptick in TOBs, MBOs and merger discussions makes it suddenly no longer safe to short low-PBR companies indiscriminately.</li>
<li>Investors are noticing. More than two-dozen large- and medium-cap stocks with deep discounts to the benchmark began to bounce off well-defined support levels in late December.</li>
</ul>


2025 will start with more attractive turnaround opportunities than we have seen in a long time. 
An uptick in TOBs, MBOs and merger discussions makes it suddenly no longer safe to short low-PBR companies indiscriminately.
Investors are noticing. More than two-dozen large- and medium-cap stocks with deep discounts to the benchmark began to bounce off well-defined support levels in late December.


Unloved Japan Round Up Jan. 3: Set Up for A Banner Year?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In October 2023 and then in early 2024, activist Palliser Capital demanded that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a> sell down its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a> to sub-15%.</li>
<li>Keisei in March sold 1% of OLC but in doing so, rejected the concept of removing equity affiliate status. They could go to a level just &gt;15%, or just &gt;20%. </li>
<li>Today, OLC announced a ToSTNeT-3 buyback of 18mm shares - the total for the 2yrs to Mar-26 <a href="https://www.olc.co.jp/en/news/news_olc/auto_20240426578292/pdfFile.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> (p19) in April. Keisei will sell and will stay above 20%. </li>
</ul>


In October 2023 and then in early 2024, activist Palliser Capital demanded that Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) sell down its stake in Oriental Land (4661 JP) to sub-15%.
Keisei in March sold 1% of OLC but in doing so, rejected the concept of removing equity affiliate status. They could go to a level just &gt;15%, or just &gt;20%. 
Today, OLC announced a ToSTNeT-3 buyback of 18mm shares - the total for the 2yrs to Mar-26 announced (p19) in April. Keisei will sell and will stay above 20%. 


Oriental Land ToSTNeT-3 Buyback From Keisei (9009) - It's In the Plan And Looks Better Than It Is

<ul>
<li>Over two decades, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a> has been the subject of softer and harder activist efforts to have Keisei monetise its stake in affiliate Oriental Land (4661).</li>
<li>The most recent efforts were by Palliser last fall, briefly discussed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/keisei-electric-rail-9009-a-buyback-but-it-s-likely-to-be-crossholders-selling-in-tostnet-3" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a> two weeks ago when Keisei announced a buyback. </li>
<li>Today, Keisei <a href="https://contents.xj-storage.jp/xcontents/AS01810/961e9d0f/2b7a/4eef/89ba/091c3bf36d72/140120240305549065.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> (Japanese only) an Accelerated Block Offering of 1% of Oriental Land shares. The accompanying announcement is worth reading. It's pretty clear.</li>
</ul>


Over two decades, Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) has been the subject of softer and harder activist efforts to have Keisei monetise its stake in affiliate Oriental Land (4661).
The most recent efforts were by Palliser last fall, briefly discussed here two weeks ago when Keisei announced a buyback. 
Today, Keisei announced (Japanese only) an Accelerated Block Offering of 1% of Oriental Land shares. The accompanying announcement is worth reading. It's pretty clear.


Oriental Land (4661) Placement by Keisei Rail (9009) Says "That's the Door"

Japan

Keisei Electric Railway Co., Ltd. provides passenger rail and bus transportation services in the Metropolitan Tokyo and Chiba prefecture areas.  The Company operates department and supermarket stores, hotels, travel agents, movie theater and restaurants, and sells, leases, and maintains real estate.  Keisei Electric is a shareholder of Oriental Land Co., Ltd. which operates Tokyo Disneyland.

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Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)

Keisei Electric Railway: Oversold on Caution, Not on Fundamentals

We see near-term weakness in Keisei as unjustified, with profit growth supporting upside from a historically low valuation.

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Keisei Electric (9009) | Neither Hidden nor Structurally Mispriced

Keisei's OLC stake distorts valuation but market has already priced it in; activist criticism on ROE is accounting semantics, not inefficiency;...

Mark Chadwick

Unloved Japan Round Up Jan. 3: Set Up for A Banner Year?

An uptick in TOBs, MBOs, and mergers creating the best environment for deep value turnarounds in a long time. Dozens of discounted stocks started...

Michael Allen

Oriental Land ToSTNeT-3 Buyback From Keisei (9009) - It's In the Plan And Looks Better Than It Is

Oriental Land today announced that its planned FY24-25 2yr buyback of 18mm shares will happen tomorrow in a ToSTNeT-3 buyback. 1%. It keeps Keisei...

Travis Lundy

Oriental Land (4661) Placement by Keisei Rail (9009) Says "That's the Door"

Keisei Rail today announced the offering/sale of 16+mm shares (1.0%) of Oriental Land. There will be a special div as a result. The announcement...

Travis Lundy

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52-week Range

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Keisei Electric Railway: Oversold on Caution, Not on Fundamentals

We see near-term weakness in Keisei as unjustified, with profit growth supporting upside from a historically low valuation.

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Keisei Electric (9009) | Neither Hidden nor Structurally Mispriced

​Keisei's OLC stake distorts valuation but market has already priced it in; activist criticism on ROE is accounting semantics, not inefficiency;...

Mark Chadwick

Unloved Japan Round Up Jan. 3: Set Up for A Banner Year?

An uptick in TOBs, MBOs, and mergers​ creating the best environment for deep value turnarounds in a long time. Dozens of discounted stocks started...

Michael Allen

Oriental Land ToSTNeT-3 Buyback From Keisei (9009) - It's In the Plan And Looks Better Than It Is

Oriental Land today announced that its planned FY24-25 2yr buyback of 18mm shares will happen tomorrow in a ToSTNeT-3 buyback. 1%. It keeps Keisei...

Travis Lundy

Oriental Land (4661) Placement by Keisei Rail (9009) Says "That's the Door"

Keisei Rail today announced the offering/sale of 16+mm shares (1.0%) of Oriental Land. There will be a special div as a result. The announcement...

Travis Lundy

Keisei's OLC stake distorts valuation but market has already priced it in; activist criticism on ROE is accounting semantics, not inefficiency;...

An uptick in TOBs, MBOs, and mergers creating the best environment for deep value turnarounds in a long time. Dozens of discounted stocks started...