Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The activist investor is back and has demanded further action to unlock value from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a>  management.</li>
<li>Operational numbers are still healthy, but growth is not as large due to the high base.</li>
<li>Immediate pressure to divest Oriental Land thus short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>  and long Keisei.</li>
</ul>


The activist investor is back and has demanded further action to unlock value from Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)  management.
Operational numbers are still healthy, but growth is not as large due to the high base.
Immediate pressure to divest Oriental Land thus short Oriental Land (4661 JP)  and long Keisei.


Keisei Electric Rail (9009): For Relative Value Trade

Executive Director, Metrical Inc

Aki Matsumoto

Executive Director

Independent Leading Corporate Governance Research

Metrical Inc

METRICAL INC. is an independent leading Corporate Governance research firm in Japan where Corporate Governance is increasingly recognized as an important element on corporate management in these days. Thus, CG research and solutions would become an essential component of global capital markets and play important to contribute to transparency of the markets and maximize shareholders’ value in Japan. 

METRICAL INC. provides Corporate Governance research and analysis including rating services, and  also offers investment research and IR services with solutions and customized profound research on CG and IR issues.

<ul>
<li>A solution for Keisei, similar to case of parent-subsidiary listing, is cashing OLC shares to raise profitability and growth potential of its business, to eliminate the distortion in market capitalization.</li>
<li>There is a corporate governance issue in that OLC is accepting board members from Keisei, which has below 20% equity and does not clearly explain the synergies of the business.</li>
<li>This can be viewed as part of dissolving cross-shareholdings where the company wants to obtain voting advantage without business synergies and cannot find opportunities to spend the cash it sells.</li>
</ul>


A solution for Keisei, similar to case of parent-subsidiary listing, is cashing OLC shares to raise profitability and growth potential of its business, to eliminate the distortion in market capitalization.
There is a corporate governance issue in that OLC is accepting board members from Keisei, which has below 20% equity and does not clearly explain the synergies of the business.
This can be viewed as part of dissolving cross-shareholdings where the company wants to obtain voting advantage without business synergies and cannot find opportunities to spend the cash it sells.


Keisei Electric Railway's Problems Are Part of a Cross-Shareholding Dissolution Process

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The CSRC has announced five capital market cooperation measures for the Hong Kong Southbound Connect programs including  RMB dual counters and REITs. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-cycle-carriage-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)</a>'s current implied stub value and simple ratio are both highly elevated.</li>
<li>A simple <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a>model says "this doesn't present me with enough upside to warrant it unless I am also really bullish <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>."</li>
</ul>


The CSRC has announced five capital market cooperation measures for the Hong Kong Southbound Connect programs including  RMB dual counters and REITs. 

Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)'s current implied stub value and simple ratio are both highly elevated.
A simple Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)model says "this doesn't present me with enough upside to warrant it unless I am also really bullish Oriental Land (4661 JP)."


Last Week in Event SPACE: HK Southbound, Jardine Cycle, Keisei/Oriental Land, BHP/Anglo American

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>Last October, activist Palliser Capital launched a campaign (<a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20231017540912/en/Palliser-Capital-Responds-to-Media-Article-Regarding-Investment-in-Keisei-Electric-Railway" target="_blank" rel="noopener">presentation</a>) on well-known "stub trade" <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a> with a stake of about 1.6%. </li>
<li>The proposal? Monetise a decent stake in Oriental Land (4661 JP), repurchase shares, and invest for growth. Keisei responded 6-8 weeks ago with a buyback and 1% OLC stake sale.</li>
<li>I thought that was time to bail. That was it. But now, Palliser has re-engaged. Today a press release (<a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240423026545/ja/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Japanese</a>/<a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240423405941/en/Palliser-Capital-Proposes-Advisory-Resolution-to-Give-Shareholders-a-Voice-at-Keisei%E2%80%99s-Forthcoming-AGM" target="_blank" rel="noopener">English</a>) and a <a href="https://mms.businesswire.com/media/20240423405941/en/2107923/1/53951785_PALLISER_CAPITAL_20240424_Letter_to_Keisei_English_2.pdf?download=1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Letter to the Board</a>.</li>
</ul>


Last October, activist Palliser Capital launched a campaign (presentation) on well-known "stub trade" Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) with a stake of about 1.6%. 
The proposal? Monetise a decent stake in Oriental Land (4661 JP), repurchase shares, and invest for growth. Keisei responded 6-8 weeks ago with a buyback and 1% OLC stake sale.
I thought that was time to bail. That was it. But now, Palliser has re-engaged. Today a press release (Japanese/English) and a Letter to the Board.


Activist Palliser Re-Engages on Keisei Electric (9009) But The Oppty Remains Unconvincing

<ul>
<li>Until the "parent-subsidiary (affiliate) listing" is resolved, the value of parent company isn't  usually reflected. If Keisei has some business interest in holding OLC shares, it's responsible for explaining it.</li>
<li>If OLC shares were mostly sold, there'd be nothing left for Keisei, which couldn't find strategy for using cash, so the decision of not losing the growing affiliate isn't bad.</li>
<li>This small sale is to buy time until a clear growth strategy is found, but once the ratio of foreign shareholders exceeds 1/3, building time will likely become more difficult.</li>
</ul>


Until the "parent-subsidiary (affiliate) listing" is resolved, the value of parent company isn't  usually reflected. If Keisei has some business interest in holding OLC shares, it's responsible for explaining it.
If OLC shares were mostly sold, there'd be nothing left for Keisei, which couldn't find strategy for using cash, so the decision of not losing the growing affiliate isn't bad.
This small sale is to buy time until a clear growth strategy is found, but once the ratio of foreign shareholders exceeds 1/3, building time will likely become more difficult.


Golden Egg Was Not Lost, but How Long Can Keisei Electric Railway Buy Time?

Japan

Keisei Electric Railway Co., Ltd. provides passenger rail and bus transportation services in the Metropolitan Tokyo and Chiba prefecture areas.  The Company operates department and supermarket stores, hotels, travel agents, movie theater and restaurants, and sells, leases, and maintains real estate.  Keisei Electric is a shareholder of Oriental Land Co., Ltd. which operates Tokyo Disneyland.

Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)

Keisei Electric Rail (9009): For Relative Value Trade

Keisei's management received another pressure from activist investor to divest more stakes in Oriental Land. Weak Yen will help to bring tourists...

Henry Soediarko

Keisei Electric Railway's Problems Are Part of a Cross-Shareholding Dissolution Process

I would like to discuss the issues on the March 15 Nikkei article, "Keisei Electric Railway's ownership of OLC shares declines to 19.13%."

Metrical Inc

Last Week in Event SPACE: HK Southbound, Jardine Cycle, Keisei/Oriental Land, BHP/Anglo American

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Activist Palliser Re-Engages on Keisei Electric (9009) But The Oppty Remains Unconvincing

Palliser has re-engaged with a Demand with vague hints of active measures if not mollified. I think Keisei will reject but will make a policy. My...

Travis Lundy

Golden Egg Was Not Lost, but How Long Can Keisei Electric Railway Buy Time?

I would like to discuss the issues on the March 8 Nikkei article, "Keisei Electric Railway to Sell 1% Stake in Tokyo Disney, a Compromise for...

Metrical Inc