Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lepu-biopharma-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33231:1" rel="noopener">Lepu Biopharma (2157 HK)</a> has filed NDA for its lead drug candidate pucotenlimab (HX008) for two indications in China, having a combined estimated market opportunity of RMB8 billion by 2030.</li>
<li>Overcrowded PD-1 mAb drugs market in China, with 10 marketed drugs, may limit the growth potential of pucotenlimab. However, pucotenlimab has better efficacy than existing drugs.</li>
<li>Lepu’s other core assets are also progressing and the company has sufficient cash to fund its R&amp;D and commercialization initiatives.</li>
</ul>



Lepu Biopharma (2157 HK) has filed NDA for its lead drug candidate pucotenlimab (HX008) for two indications in China, having a combined estimated market opportunity of RMB8 billion by 2030.
Overcrowded PD-1 mAb drugs market in China, with 10 marketed drugs, may limit the growth potential of pucotenlimab. However, pucotenlimab has better efficacy than existing drugs.
Lepu’s other core assets are also progressing and the company has sufficient cash to fund its R&amp;D and commercialization initiatives.


Lepu Biopharma (2157 HK): Lead Candidate Marching Toward Commercialization; Pipeline Is Progressing

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

<ul>
<li>Due to doctors’ poor diagnosis/limited affordability, commercialization prospects of China autoimmune disease market could be much lower than expected. Internationalization is inevitable, but Keymed is lack of cash for MRCT.</li>
<li>For CM310 and CM326, their total sales in China could be less than RMB2 billion. For CMG901, it is hard to say if Claudin 18.2 (ADC) would finally be successful.</li>
<li>As long as Keymed can successfully develop either CM310 or CM326 (key premise), even temporarily only commercializing in the domestic market, the Company has the potential to double in valuation.</li>
</ul>


Due to doctors’ poor diagnosis/limited affordability, commercialization prospects of China autoimmune disease market could be much lower than expected. Internationalization is inevitable, but Keymed is lack of cash for MRCT.
For CM310 and CM326, their total sales in China could be less than RMB2 billion. For CMG901, it is hard to say if Claudin 18.2 (ADC) would finally be successful.
As long as Keymed can successfully develop either CM310 or CM326 (key premise), even temporarily only commercializing in the domestic market, the Company has the potential to double in valuation.


Keymed Biosciences (2162.HK) - The Potential for Doubling Valuation and the Corresponding Risks

Equity Capital Markets

Shanghai Junshi Biosciences  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Junshi’s fatal flaw is not that it is still suffering loss, or that its founders have no medical background, but that the Company is very short of money.</li>
<li>Considering the gloomy prospects of etesevimab/VV116, uncertainties in toripalimab and other late-stage candidates, we remain conservative about Junshi’s commercialization outlook. Junshi's higher valuation than Innovent is not justified.</li>
<li>Together with unfriendly macro environment, we don’t think heavy investment in R&amp;D/MRCT/commercial development could bring high return as expected.Investors need to be rational about Junshi's RMB4 billion private placement plan.</li>
</ul>


Junshi’s fatal flaw is not that it is still suffering loss, or that its founders have no medical background, but that the Company is very short of money.
Considering the gloomy prospects of etesevimab/VV116, uncertainties in toripalimab and other late-stage candidates, we remain conservative about Junshi’s commercialization outlook. Junshi's higher valuation than Innovent is not justified.
Together with unfriendly macro environment, we don’t think heavy investment in R&amp;D/MRCT/commercial development could bring high return as expected.Investors need to be rational about Junshi's RMB4 billion private placement plan.


Shanghai Junshi Bioscience Placement- Junshi Is Having a Hard Time, with Lower than Expected Returns

<ul>
<li>Commercialization prospects of domestic autoimmune disease market is highly uncertain. Related drugs’ sales could be very limited in short term. Overseas market space is much larger, so internationalization is inevitable.</li>
<li>Our forecast on RemeGen’s total sales is just RMB3.5-4 billion. The deal with Seagen still puzzles us, which is the key to determine how far RemeGen can go in internationalization.</li>
<li>Keymed is like "a younger RemeGen" due to the differentiation strategy of pipeline layout. However, Keymed’s internationalization progress is much weaker, with higher risks and uncertainties than RemeGen.</li>
</ul>


Commercialization prospects of domestic autoimmune disease market is highly uncertain. Related drugs’ sales could be very limited in short term. Overseas market space is much larger, so internationalization is inevitable.
Our forecast on RemeGen’s total sales is just RMB3.5-4 billion. The deal with Seagen still puzzles us, which is the key to determine how far RemeGen can go in internationalization.
Keymed is like "a younger RemeGen" due to the differentiation strategy of pipeline layout. However, Keymed’s internationalization progress is much weaker, with higher risks and uncertainties than RemeGen.


Remegen (9995HK) Vs Keymed Biosciences (2162HK)-Deep Dive the Logic & Internationalization Prospects

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Hang Seng announced the results of the March rebalance post market close Friday. Two adds for the HSI, one set of changes for HSCEI, three sets for HSTECH.</li>
<li>An ad hoc rebalance was announced for the KOSDAQ150 following Osstem being designated an 'Administrative Issue'. In IPO world, we have LIC in India and SBI Sumishin NetBank coming up.</li>
<li>Friday was the review cutoff date for the March rebalance of the ASX200 Index. The ATO has provided Aventus with the tax ruling and that creates a timing issue.</li>
</ul>


Hang Seng announced the results of the March rebalance post market close Friday. Two adds for the HSI, one set of changes for HSCEI, three sets for HSTECH.
An ad hoc rebalance was announced for the KOSDAQ150 following Osstem being designated an 'Administrative Issue'. In IPO world, we have LIC in India and SBI Sumishin NetBank coming up.
Friday was the review cutoff date for the March rebalance of the ASX200 Index. The ATO has provided Aventus with the tax ruling and that creates a timing issue.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSCI, S&P/ASX, SET50, LIC, SBI Sumishin, Crown

China

Keymed Biosciences is a biotechnology company focused on the in-house discovery and development of innovative biological therapies for autoimmune diseases and oncology. Their pipeline includes over 50 programs, with key products like Kangyueda® (Stapokibart, CM310) for atopic dermatitis, chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps, and seasonal allergic rhinitis. The company was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in Chengdu, China.

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Keymed Biosciences (2162 HK)

Lepu Biopharma (2157 HK): Lead Candidate Marching Toward Commercialization; Pipeline Is Progressing

Lepu is preparing for commercialization of pucotenlimab for two indications in China, after approval. The indications targeted by Lepu’s core drug...

Tina Banerjee