Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio gained 9.7% in May, outperforming its benchmark by 10.57%.  The portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 57% to 75% since its inception in 10/2024.</li>
<li>The portfolio has a Sharpe ratio of 1.37 since its inception, with a mean excess annualized return of 21% and a beta of 1.2.  </li>
<li>At the end of May, we sold our remaining positions in the mining and materials sectors and added positions in the power, consumer and property sectors.</li>
</ul>


The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio gained 9.7% in May, outperforming its benchmark by 10.57%.  The portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 57% to 75% since its inception in 10/2024.
The portfolio has a Sharpe ratio of 1.37 since its inception, with a mean excess annualized return of 21% and a beta of 1.2.  
At the end of May, we sold our remaining positions in the mining and materials sectors and added positions in the power, consumer and property sectors.


Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kingboard-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8122:1" rel="noopener">Kingboard Holdings (148 HK)</a> has rallied 24% from its end-of-March trough, closing at HK$40.34 on Tuesday — already above the P75 profit target (HK$37.85) but momentum still intact.</li>
<li>Our model's historical analogues suggest week 3–4 carries peak reversal risk; at week 2, the bull case toward HK$43–45 remains alive but increasingly fragile.</li>
<li>Risk/Reward is shifting: our model favours fading the rally at current levels unless passive flow from the 1888 HK index inclusion drives further upside.</li>
</ul>



Kingboard Holdings (148 HK) has rallied 24% from its end-of-March trough, closing at HK$40.34 on Tuesday — already above the P75 profit target (HK$37.85) but momentum still intact.
Our model's historical analogues suggest week 3–4 carries peak reversal risk; at week 2, the bull case toward HK$43–45 remains alive but increasingly fragile.
Risk/Reward is shifting: our model favours fading the rally at current levels unless passive flow from the 1888 HK index inclusion drives further upside.


Kingboard Holdings (148 HK) Tactical Outlook: Rally Exhaustion Ahead of 1888 HK Index Inclusion

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sichuan-kelun-biotech-biopharm" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40071:1" rel="noopener">Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Bio (6990 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/techtronic-industries-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4561:1" rel="noopener">Techtronic Ind. (669 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vesync" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31067:1" rel="noopener">Vesync (2148 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chervon-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35309:1" rel="noopener">Chervon Hldgs (2285 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec-co-ltd-bf4a1265-beef-48b6-b82d-29308426030f" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27795:1" rel="noopener">WuXi AppTec (2359 HK)</a> have a very high reliance on the US market.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vtech-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18812:1" rel="noopener">Vtech Hldgs (303 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsonite-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12790:1" rel="noopener">Samsonite (1910 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-smart-home-co-ltd-b3ef445f-0f54-4586-8c58-9073de98d60e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31105:1" rel="noopener">Haier Smart Home (6690 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tcl-multimedia-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15654:1" rel="noopener">Tcl Multimedia (1070 HK)</a> ranked lower on the list, but consumer cutbacks will have a bigger impact. </li>
<li>The spillover effect of a US recession to other countries will pressurise companies that have low direct exposure, like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orient-overseas-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:801:1" rel="noopener">Orient Overseas International (316 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prada-s-p-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:889:1" rel="noopener">Prada S.P.A. (1913 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>



Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Bio (6990 HK), Techtronic Ind. (669 HK), Vesync (2148 HK), Chervon Hldgs (2285 HK), and WuXi AppTec (2359 HK) have a very high reliance on the US market.

Vtech Hldgs (303 HK), Samsonite (1910 HK), Haier Smart Home (6690 HK), and Tcl Multimedia (1070 HK) ranked lower on the list, but consumer cutbacks will have a bigger impact. 
The spillover effect of a US recession to other countries will pressurise companies that have low direct exposure, like Orient Overseas International (316 HK) and Prada S.P.A. (1913 HK).


China & HK Strategy: Who Are the Victims of a US Recession?

<ul>
<li>
The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio posted a -0.5% return for April. Since its inception, the HK Alpha portfolio has outperformed the HK indexes by 38.69% to 60.42%.  </li>
<li>Overall alpha generation remains at 64% of overall returns.  The Sharpe ratio for the portfolio is 1.15, compared with 0.89 for the benchmark.</li>
<li>As the US retreats from its war in Iran, we have repositioned the portfolio by adding exposure to the AI-related tech sector, including platform, agentic, and hardware.</li>
</ul>



The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio posted a -0.5% return for April. Since its inception, the HK Alpha portfolio has outperformed the HK indexes by 38.69% to 60.42%.  
Overall alpha generation remains at 64% of overall returns.  The Sharpe ratio for the portfolio is 1.15, compared with 0.89 for the benchmark.
As the US retreats from its war in Iran, we have repositioned the portfolio by adding exposure to the AI-related tech sector, including platform, agentic, and hardware.


<ul>
<li>The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio's March performance was -11.25%, compared with -7.75% for the benchmark index.  The Hang Seng Index lost 6.92% for the month.</li>
<li>Performance was hurt by its exposure to the oil equipment and fertilizer sectors, which normally benefit from higher energy prices. China imposed price and export restrictions in the energy sector.</li>
<li>At the end of March, we positioned the portfolio to better cope with the difficulties in China's economy and in the global market due to persistently high energy prices.</li>
</ul>


The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio's March performance was -11.25%, compared with -7.75% for the benchmark index.  The Hang Seng Index lost 6.92% for the month.
Performance was hurt by its exposure to the oil equipment and fertilizer sectors, which normally benefit from higher energy prices. China imposed price and export restrictions in the energy sector.
At the end of March, we positioned the portfolio to better cope with the difficulties in China's economy and in the global market due to persistently high energy prices.


Hong Kong

Kingboard is an investment holding company that manufactures and sells laminates, printed circuit boards (PCBs), and chemicals. It is a leading vertically integrated electronic materials manufacturer, producing copper-clad laminates and key upstream raw materials like copper foil, glass fabric, and resins. The company also has segments in properties and investments. Kingboard was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Hong Kong.

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Kingboard (148 HK)

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (May 2026)

The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio gained 9.7% in May, outperforming its benchmark by 10.57%. The portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 57%...

David Mudd

Kingboard Holdings (148 HK) Tactical Outlook: Rally Exhaustion Ahead of 1888 HK Index Inclusion

Kingboard Holdings (148 HK) surged 24% from its March low, but our model signals peak reversal risk ahead. Is the 1888 HK index inclusion catalyst...

Nico Rosti

China & HK Strategy: Who Are the Victims of a US Recession?

Reliance on the US market varies among HK-listed companies, with some having high direct exposure to a recession. Those with low direct exposure...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (April 2026)

The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio posted a -0.5% return for April. Since its inception, the HK Alpha portfolio has outperformed the HK indexes by...

David Mudd

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (March 2026)

Guoquan Food announced that management sold a 4.74% stake at a discounted price of $3.8 to boost the liquidity of the shares. We viewed the move...

David Mudd

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (May 2026)

The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio gained 9.7% in May, outperforming its benchmark by 10.57%. The portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 57%...

David Mudd

Kingboard Holdings (148 HK) Tactical Outlook: Rally Exhaustion Ahead of 1888 HK Index Inclusion

Kingboard Holdings (148 HK) surged 24% from its March low, but our model signals peak reversal risk ahead. Is the 1888 HK index inclusion catalyst...

Nico Rosti

China & HK Strategy: Who Are the Victims of a US Recession?

​Reliance on the US market varies among HK-listed companies, with some having high direct exposure to a recession. Those with low direct exposure...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (April 2026)

The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio posted a -0.5% return for April. Since its inception, the HK Alpha portfolio has outperformed the HK indexes by...

David Mudd

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (March 2026)

Guoquan Food announced that management sold a 4.74% stake at a discounted price of $3.8 to boost the liquidity of the shares. We viewed the move...

David Mudd

Reliance on the US market varies among HK-listed companies, with some having high direct exposure to a recession. Those with low direct exposure...