Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The March rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI and HSTECH indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights at 8%. This will lead to large flows.</li>
<li>The largest inflows will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc-3dbe6187-544f-40dd-b9f9-72fba9c0110e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33811:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto (2015 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xpeng-inc-4cc65854-d10c-4d20-bf7e-ca0e016715ff" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33772:1" rel="noopener">XPeng (9868 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (9618 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>The largest outflows will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings (5 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc-a55ca720-5968-48f0-8194-ac94390d065c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32212:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (9888 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netease" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29030:1" rel="noopener">NetEase (9999 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cnooc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:175:1" rel="noopener">CNOOC (883 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">SMIC (981 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


The March rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI and HSTECH indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights at 8%. This will lead to large flows.
The largest inflows will be on Li Auto (2015 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), XPeng (9868 HK), JD.com (9618 HK), Alibaba (9988 HK), BYD (1211 HK) and Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK). 
The largest outflows will be on Tencent (700 HK), HSBC Holdings (5 HK), Baidu (9888 HK), Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK), NetEase (9999 HK), CNOOC (883 HK) and SMIC (981 HK).


HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (March 2023)

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

Kingdee International Software / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We expect Kingdee to deliver FY22E revenue of RMB4.8bn (+15% YoY) with net loss widened to RMB395mn (vs. –RMB302mn in FY21).</li><li>Looking into FY23E, ARR growth recovery, core SaaS product Galaxy profitability improvement and Xinchuang initiative will remain as the key growth drivers.</li><li>Our recent channel check suggested an accelerating software local substitution trend. Kingdee’s total bidding won was up +82%/ +141% YoY in FY22/ FY23 YTD, based on dollar amount. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect Kingdee to deliver FY22E revenue of RMB4.8bn (+15% YoY) with net loss widened to RMB395mn (vs. –RMB302mn in FY21).Looking into FY23E, ARR growth recovery, core SaaS product Galaxy profitability improvement and Xinchuang initiative will remain as the key growth drivers.Our recent channel check suggested an accelerating software local substitution trend. Kingdee’s total bidding won was up +82%/ +141% YoY in FY22/ FY23 YTD, based on dollar amount. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Kingdee (268 HK) – Bidding data implied accelerated software substitution

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We recently talked to some software and IT services companies regarding FY23E business outlook.</li><li>While most companies are encouraged by China reopening and lifting of COVID restrictions, the pace of business recovery is likely to be slow.</li><li>We suggest investors to focus on the localization theme. Horizontal SaaS and IT services companies with government/ telecom/ financial customer exposure are likely to benefit.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We recently talked to some software and IT services companies regarding FY23E business outlook.While most companies are encouraged by China reopening and lifting of COVID restrictions, the pace of business recovery is likely to be slow.We suggest investors to focus on the localization theme. Horizontal SaaS and IT services companies with government/ telecom/ financial customer exposure are likely to benefit.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Software & IT Services – Year of rabbit: still about localization

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Dec 2nd.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Kuaishou, GCL, Haidilao, Wharf, Haichang Ocean Park, Xiaomi, China Gas, Netease.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Dec 2nd.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in Kuaishou, GCL, Haidilao, Wharf, Haichang Ocean Park, Xiaomi, China Gas, Netease.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Kuaishou, GCL, Haidilao

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Nov 4th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Kuaishou, Li Ning, China Shenhua, BYD Electronic.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Nov 4th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in Kuaishou, Li Ning, China Shenhua, BYD Electronic.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Kuaishou, Li Ning, China Shenhua, BYD Electronic

China

Kingdee International Software Group Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops and sells enterprise management software, e-commerce application software and middleware software.  The Company also provides internet-based services and setting up e-commerce platforms for enterprises. In addition, Kingdee provides solution consulting and technical support services.

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Kingdee International Software (268 HK)

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (March 2023)

The Hang Seng indices rebalance Friday. Capping uses today's closing prices. The one-way trade across all stocks across the indices is estimated at...

Brian Freitas

Kingdee (268 HK) – Bidding data implied accelerated software substitution

We expect Kingdee to deliver FY22E revenue of RMB4.8bn (+15% YoY) with net loss widened to RMB395mn (vs. –RMB302mn in FY21).

CMB International

China Software & IT Services – Year of rabbit: still about localization

While most companies are encouraged by China reopening and lifting of COVID restrictions, the pace of business recovery is likely to be slow.

CMB International

HK Short Interest Weekly: Kuaishou, GCL, Haidilao

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Dec 2nd and highlight short interest changes in Kuaishou, GCL, Haidilao,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Short Interest Weekly: Kuaishou, Li Ning, China Shenhua, BYD Electronic

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Nov 4th and highlight short interest changes in Kuaishou, Li Ning, China...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)