Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A share indices were up on the week. HK stock indices were down except for HS Tech. H-shares with A-share pairs were up. </li>
<li>Net SOUTHBOUND buying was HK$9.1bn in the second post-holiday week after being +HK$20bn in the first week. LOTS of SOEs on the net buying side. Still.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND continues to buy high-div SOEs. ex-div is still three months away, and given the new KPIs discussed late January by SASAC official, these still seem to be appropriate targets.</li>
</ul>


A share indices were up on the week. HK stock indices were down except for HS Tech. H-shares with A-share pairs were up. 
Net SOUTHBOUND buying was HK$9.1bn in the second post-holiday week after being +HK$20bn in the first week. LOTS of SOEs on the net buying side. Still.
SOUTHBOUND continues to buy high-div SOEs. ex-div is still three months away, and given the new KPIs discussed late January by SASAC official, these still seem to be appropriate targets.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 1 Mar 2024); Continued Big Buys of SOEs (Getting Boring to Say This)

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>The March rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a> and HSIII indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights at 8%/12%. This will lead to large flows.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-travel-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel (780 HK)</a> are the biggest buys while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc-3dbe6187-544f-40dd-b9f9-72fba9c0110e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33811:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto (2015 HK)</a>,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC (5 HK)</a> are the biggest sells.</li>
<li>The round-trip trade across all stocks across the four indices is estimated at HK$16.16bn (US$2.06bn).</li>
</ul>


The March rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSIII indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights at 8%/12%. This will lead to large flows.

Tencent (700 HK), Meituan (3690 HK) and Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) are the biggest buys while Alibaba (9988 HK), Li Auto (2015 HK),  HSBC (5 HK) are the biggest sells.
The round-trip trade across all stocks across the four indices is estimated at HK$16.16bn (US$2.06bn).


HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (Mar 2024)

Tongcheng Travel Holdings  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Hang Seng Index, HSCEI, and HS Tech rebals were announced on 16 Feb. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/janaghan-jeyakumar-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:3173" rel="noopener">Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA</a> had expected GDS out, Tongcheng Travel in on HSTECH, along with the...</li>
<li>...deletion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongsheng-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10573:1" rel="noopener">Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)</a> in HSCEI, with a low conviction replacement of Zijin Mining, which turned out to be an add of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-unicom-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1016:1" rel="noopener">China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>No changes to the main HSI Index, which means evolution is further delayed. Today was the day to recap the caps. Mar1 Flow estimates are included below for all three.</li>
</ul>


The Hang Seng Index, HSCEI, and HS Tech rebals were announced on 16 Feb. Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA had expected GDS out, Tongcheng Travel in on HSTECH, along with the...
...deletion of Zhongsheng Group (881 HK) in HSCEI, with a low conviction replacement of Zijin Mining, which turned out to be an add of China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK). 
No changes to the main HSI Index, which means evolution is further delayed. Today was the day to recap the caps. Mar1 Flow estimates are included below for all three.


Final Flows for Hang Seng, HSCEI, HS Tech on 1 March Rebal

<ul>
<li>A great week for HK and Chinese shares, especially the larger caps. Mainland indices were up 8 days in a row to Friday, helping HK shares stay bid.</li>
<li>Net SOUTHBOUND buying was HK$20.0bn in the first post-holiday week. LOTS of SOEs on the net buying side.</li>
<li>Remarkable this past week, was a new tendency to net sell names which were up a lot and net buy names which haven't performed as well. </li>
</ul>


A great week for HK and Chinese shares, especially the larger caps. Mainland indices were up 8 days in a row to Friday, helping HK shares stay bid.
Net SOUTHBOUND buying was HK$20.0bn in the first post-holiday week. LOTS of SOEs on the net buying side.
Remarkable this past week, was a new tendency to net sell names which were up a lot and net buy names which haven't performed as well. 


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 23 Feb 2024); Selling of Consumer Stocks, But Big Buys of SOEs

<ul>
<li>There will be 3 changes for the Hang Seng Internet &amp; Information Technology Index (HSIII) at the March rebalance. There are some surprises.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 5.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$3.26bn (US$416m). 6 stocks will have over 1x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>There is huge short interest on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/east-buy-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27796:1" rel="noopener">East Buy Holding (1797 HK)</a> and there could be some short covering ahead of the inclusion of the stock in the index.</li>
</ul>


There will be 3 changes for the Hang Seng Internet &amp; Information Technology Index (HSIII) at the March rebalance. There are some surprises.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 5.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$3.26bn (US$416m). 6 stocks will have over 1x ADV to trade.
There is huge short interest on East Buy Holding (1797 HK) and there could be some short covering ahead of the inclusion of the stock in the index.


Hang Seng Internet & IT Index Rebalance: Three Changes & One Big Surprise

China

Kingdee International Software Group Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops and sells enterprise management software, e-commerce application software and middleware software.  The Company also provides internet-based services and setting up e-commerce platforms for enterprises. In addition, Kingdee provides solution consulting and technical support services.

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Kingdee International Software (268 HK)

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 1 Mar 2024); Continued Big Buys of SOEs (Getting Boring to Say This)

The HK Connect SOUTHBOUND flows were again positive. SOEs continue to be bought. The ex-dates for high-div SOEs in the oil and telecom sectors are...

Travis Lundy

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (Mar 2024)

Tencent (700 HK), Meituan (3690 HK) and Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) are the biggest buys while Alibaba (9988 HK), Li Auto (2015 HK), HSBC (5 HK) are...

Brian Freitas

Final Flows for Hang Seng, HSCEI, HS Tech on 1 March Rebal

The Final flows for the Hang Seng March 2024 index rebalances are set based off the close of 27 February. One large change (Li Auto was expected to...

Travis Lundy

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 23 Feb 2024); Selling of Consumer Stocks, But Big Buys of SOEs

SOUTHBOUND saw significant net buying in the first week after Chinese New Year. Large caps and SOEs were heavily bought. Especially in energy and...

Travis Lundy

Hang Seng Internet & IT Index Rebalance: Three Changes & One Big Surprise

There are 3 changes for the HSIII in March. Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 5.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$3.26bn...

Brian Freitas

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