Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our February 6, 2023 EM Strategy, we discussed that we were buyers of the MSCI EM (EEM-US) on a pullback to the 50-day MA. </li>
<li>The pullback went a bit deeper but managed to hold at our $37.50 line-in-the-sand which we discussed in our recent ETF Pathfinder reports (Mar. 6 and Mar. 20, 2023).</li>
<li>The EEM-US displays a bullish 2-month downtrend reversal- add exposure. Signs continue to point to a topping DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. EAFE).</li>
</ul>


In our February 6, 2023 EM Strategy, we discussed that we were buyers of the MSCI EM (EEM-US) on a pullback to the 50-day MA. 
The pullback went a bit deeper but managed to hold at our $37.50 line-in-the-sand which we discussed in our recent ETF Pathfinder reports (Mar. 6 and Mar. 20, 2023).
The EEM-US displays a bullish 2-month downtrend reversal- add exposure. Signs continue to point to a topping DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. EAFE).


MSCI EM $EEM 2-Month Downtrend Reversal at Support -- Add Exposure. Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We recently conducted a round of interviews of Chinese start-up gaming companies, and we see an overall loosening in the regulatory environment, although near-term hit titles are still absent.</li>
<li>We are positive on Tencent because of the increasing possibility of DNF mobile launch. We raise NetEase’s TP to US$ 99, and it’s one of our top picks now</li>
<li>Other gaming companies that have upward trends include Kingsoft, Lingxi Games (under Alibaba), Koei Tecmo, Nexon, and Mihoyo. Companies with a downward trend include BILI and Garena (under SEA).  </li>
</ul>


We recently conducted a round of interviews of Chinese start-up gaming companies, and we see an overall loosening in the regulatory environment, although near-term hit titles are still absent.
We are positive on Tencent because of the increasing possibility of DNF mobile launch. We raise NetEase’s TP to US$ 99, and it’s one of our top picks now
Other gaming companies that have upward trends include Kingsoft, Lingxi Games (under Alibaba), Koei Tecmo, Nexon, and Mihoyo. Companies with a downward trend include BILI and Garena (under SEA).  


[Gaming Sector Update]: Top Picks Are Tencent and NetEase, Positive to Kingsoft, Koei Tecmo, Nexon.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<div><ul><li>Structural changes in China cloud market. There are three structural changes in China cloud market since the internet sector crackdown in 2021.</li><li>China cloud development roadmap is different compared to the US</li><li>Cloud supply chain turmoil amid rising geopolitical tension.</li></ul></div>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Structural changes in China cloud market. There are three structural changes in China cloud market since the internet sector crackdown in 2021.China cloud development roadmap is different compared to the USCloud supply chain turmoil amid rising geopolitical tension.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Software & IT Services – A mixed outlook for China cloud amid rising China-US tension

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of July 17th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Knowledge Atlas, Alibaba, Ntes, Iluvatar Corex, Gigadevice, Kingboard Laminates, Tencent, Sinopec, Hua Hong Semi.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of July 17th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Knowledge Atlas, Alibaba, Ntes, Iluvatar Corex, Gigadevice, Kingboard Laminates, Tencent, Sinopec, Hua Hong Semi.


HK Connect Flows Weekly (Jul 17th): Knowledge Atlas, Alibaba, Ntes, Iluvatar Corex, Gigadevice

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>HSTECH June 2026 added KNOWLEDGE ATLAS and MINIMAX-W and deleted KINGSOFT and KINGDEE INT'L. All event windows through the fourth post-implementation week are complete.</li>
<li>Both ADDs fell in the first implementation week, far beyond the historical ADD first-week means. KNOWLEDGE ATLAS then gained +46.8% in weeks two to four.</li>
<li>The positive-bridge DELETE rebound held for KINGSOFT at +3.9% but missed for KINGDEE INT'L at -12.3%.</li>
</ul>


HSTECH June 2026 added KNOWLEDGE ATLAS and MINIMAX-W and deleted KINGSOFT and KINGDEE INT'L. All event windows through the fourth post-implementation week are complete.
Both ADDs fell in the first implementation week, far beyond the historical ADD first-week means. KNOWLEDGE ATLAS then gained +46.8% in weeks two to four.
The positive-bridge DELETE rebound held for KINGSOFT at +3.9% but missed for KINGDEE INT'L at -12.3%.


HS TECH June 2026 Rebalance: Post-Implementation Review

China

Kingsoft is a Chinese software and internet services company that develops office software, cloud services, and online games. Its key products include the WPS Office suite (WPS Office, WPS 365, WPS AI) and various PC and mobile games like JX Online 3. The company was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.

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Kingsoft (3888 HK)

MSCI EM $EEM 2-Month Downtrend Reversal at Support -- Add Exposure. Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight

Signs continue to point to a topping $DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. $EAFE). Many ideas in China/Hong...

Vermilion Research

[Gaming Sector Update]: Top Picks Are Tencent and NetEase, Positive to Kingsoft, Koei Tecmo, Nexon.

We recently conducted a round of interviews of Chinese start-up gaming companies. Our top picks are Tencent and NetEase. We are also positive to...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Software & IT Services – A mixed outlook for China cloud amid rising China-US tension

Structural changes in China cloud market. There are three structural changes in China cloud market since the internet sector crackdown in 2021.

CMB International

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Jul 17th): Knowledge Atlas, Alibaba, Ntes, Iluvatar Corex, Gigadevice

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Knowledge Atlas (2513 HK), Alibaba (9988 HK), Ntes (9999...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HS TECH June 2026 Rebalance: Post-Implementation Review

HSTECH June 2026 rebalance has passed the first post-implementation month. We review what worked, what did not, and how current results compare...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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