Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since late-February(2/25/25) we were expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.However,after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed 4/1/25 that we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity</li>
<li>We downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious. We then discussed last week(4/8/25)how it was a logical spot for a local bottom to develop at 4800-4820 on SPX and $402-$412 on QQQ. </li>
<li>A rally sparked from there, but we now are looking for SPX rally to fizzle, either here at 5490-5500 (20-day MA) or the 200-day MA (currently 5754) or 5785 level</li>
</ul>


Since late-February(2/25/25) we were expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.However,after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed 4/1/25 that we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity
We downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious. We then discussed last week(4/8/25)how it was a logical spot for a local bottom to develop at 4800-4820 on SPX and $402-$412 on QQQ. 
A rally sparked from there, but we now are looking for SPX rally to fizzle, either here at 5490-5500 (20-day MA) or the 200-day MA (currently 5754) or 5785 level


Expecting SPX Rally to Fizzle at 5490-5500 or 5785; Still Bearish/Cautious and Defensive

<ul>
<li>Last week we discussed how evidence was pointing to a major low at 5500-5600 on the SPX, but now it appears more likely to just have been a local low</li>
<li>Market dynamics have continued to deteriorate to the point where we no longer see this as a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>We are cautious and would get defensive as long as the S&amp;P 500 is below 5770-5780 and its 200-day MA; we believe we are in a "sell rallies" regime</li>
</ul>


Last week we discussed how evidence was pointing to a major low at 5500-5600 on the SPX, but now it appears more likely to just have been a local low
Market dynamics have continued to deteriorate to the point where we no longer see this as a buying opportunity.
We are cautious and would get defensive as long as the S&amp;P 500 is below 5770-5780 and its 200-day MA; we believe we are in a "sell rallies" regime


Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy; Downgrading Technology

<ul>
<li>In our 2/25/25 Compass, we discussed our expectation for near-term downside. Also said one or two 8-10% pullbacks in a given year on the SPX is common</li>
<li>And said to not be surprised if there is a test of the bottom of the range at either 5770-5850 or 5600-5670, where we would be buyers</li>
<li>The SPX had a -10.3% peak-to-trough decline, with support showing up at 5500; close enough to our 10% pullback and 5600 level. This has been a stellar buy area</li>
</ul>


In our 2/25/25 Compass, we discussed our expectation for near-term downside. Also said one or two 8-10% pullbacks in a given year on the SPX is common
And said to not be surprised if there is a test of the bottom of the range at either 5770-5850 or 5600-5670, where we would be buyers
The SPX had a -10.3% peak-to-trough decline, with support showing up at 5500; close enough to our 10% pullback and 5600 level. This has been a stellar buy area


Major Low Likely in Place on S&P 500; Bullish Outlook Intact if Above 5500-5600

<ul>
<li>In our 2/25/25 Compass, we discussed our expectation for near-term downside as the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) displayed several bearish short-term developments. </li>
<li>The  downward pressure has brought the S&amp;P to the bottom of our range at 5600-5670.</li>
<li>Friday's and Monday's tape action alleviated oversold conditions as strong demand was a clear positive. We need the 5500-5600 level to hold in order to remain constructive.</li>
</ul>


In our 2/25/25 Compass, we discussed our expectation for near-term downside as the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) displayed several bearish short-term developments. 
The  downward pressure has brought the S&amp;P to the bottom of our range at 5600-5670.
Friday's and Monday's tape action alleviated oversold conditions as strong demand was a clear positive. We need the 5500-5600 level to hold in order to remain constructive.


S&P 500, NYSE Comp, QQQ Find Initial Support; Strong Buying Demand Suggests Local Low at Minimum

OmniVision Integrated Circuits Group / Technical Analysis

OmniVision Integrated Circuits Group (603501 CH)

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in Jan9,2025 report how we viewed the pullback as a buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US. </li>
<li>$116 support held perfectly, and now both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 are coiling just below all-time highs, likely setting up for major breakouts. ACWI is now breaking out.</li>
<li>DXY and 10-Year Treasury yield are both topping, a crucial risk-on signal for global equities. More and more countries breaking out. Actionable Themes: Technology, Services, Communications, Industrials, Gold Miners, Financials</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in Jan9,2025 report how we viewed the pullback as a buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US. 
$116 support held perfectly, and now both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 are coiling just below all-time highs, likely setting up for major breakouts. ACWI is now breaking out.
DXY and 10-Year Treasury yield are both topping, a crucial risk-on signal for global equities. More and more countries breaking out. Actionable Themes: Technology, Services, Communications, Industrials, Gold Miners, Financials


More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in China, Europe, More; DXY & Yields Top

Canada

Kinross Gold Corporation is involved in the exploration, development, and production of gold in countries located around the world.  The Company currently has operations in the United States, Brazil, Chile, Mauritania, Ghana and Russia.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Kinross Gold Corp (KGC US)

Expecting SPX Rally to Fizzle at 5490-5500 or 5785; Still Bearish/Cautious and Defensive

Expecting $SPX Rally to Fizzle at 5490-5500 or 5785; Still Bearish/Cautious and Defensive. Crucial long-term SPX and $QQQ supports at 4800-4820 and...

Vermilion Research

Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy; Downgrading Technology

Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy $XLE to Market Weight; Downgrading Technology $XLK to Underweight; Cautious if...

Vermilion Research

Major Low Likely in Place on S&P 500; Bullish Outlook Intact if Above 5500-5600

Major Low Likely in Place on $SPX; Bullish Outlook Intact if Above 5500-5600. 5670-5718 is short-term gap support; Power in hands of bulls if...

Vermilion Research

S&P 500, NYSE Comp, QQQ Find Initial Support; Strong Buying Demand Suggests Local Low at Minimum

$SPX, NYSE Comp $NYA, $QQQ Find Initial Support; Strong Buying Demand Friday and Monday Suggests Local Low at Minimum; Since late-Feb discussed an...

Vermilion Research

More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in China, Europe, More; DXY & Yields Top

More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact $ACWI $EAFE $EEM. More buys in China; Germany continues to lead Europe higher. Will...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)