Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Dundee Precious Metals  / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> transitioned from the tracking the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index in September.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dundee-precious-metals-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:42245:1" rel="noopener">Dundee Precious Metals (DPM CN)</a>'s stock price has continued to move higher and is likely to be added to the index in December.</li>
<li>Stock moves over the last month have shrunk the capping trade massively. Estimated one-way turnover is 1.8% and the round trip trade is US$1.75bn.</li>
</ul>


The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) transitioned from the tracking the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index in September.

Dundee Precious Metals (DPM CN)'s stock price has continued to move higher and is likely to be added to the index in December.
Stock moves over the last month have shrunk the capping trade massively. Estimated one-way turnover is 1.8% and the round trip trade is US$1.75bn.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance Preview: Stock Price Moves Shrink Capping Trade

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

Equity Bottom-Up

Zijin Gold International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a> , post the meteoric rise in its share price since listing last week, is now the most expensive gold miner stocks, globally, on an EV/Reserve basis.</li>
<li>Investor expectations of gold prices climbing higher, driven by the yen’s sharp drop, a U.S. government shutdown, and growing anticipation of additional Federal Reserve rate cuts, are fueling the stock.</li>
<li>For Hong Kong investors, Zijin Gold is the only pure-play, globally diversified gold miner, with expectations of index inclusion and strong demand driving its share price above fundamentals.</li>
</ul>



Zijin Gold (2259 HK) , post the meteoric rise in its share price since listing last week, is now the most expensive gold miner stocks, globally, on an EV/Reserve basis.
Investor expectations of gold prices climbing higher, driven by the yen’s sharp drop, a U.S. government shutdown, and growing anticipation of additional Federal Reserve rate cuts, are fueling the stock.
For Hong Kong investors, Zijin Gold is the only pure-play, globally diversified gold miner, with expectations of index inclusion and strong demand driving its share price above fundamentals.


Zijin Gold (2259 HK): 100% Surge Since IPO. What Gold Price Is Priced In Now?

Equity Capital Markets

Zijin Gold International / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Riding on strong investor demand, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a>  has exercised its over-allotment option, boosting the total IPO size to USD 3.7 billion from USD 3.2 billion previously.</li>
<li>As Hong Kong’s only pure-play gold miner with global exposure, Zijin Gold may command a premium, though any sharp price gains still depend on sustained gold price strength.</li>
<li>Investors should define their medium- to-long-term gold price thresholds to shape a clear post-IPO strategy for Zijin Gold.</li>
</ul>


Riding on strong investor demand, Zijin Gold (2259 HK)  has exercised its over-allotment option, boosting the total IPO size to USD 3.7 billion from USD 3.2 billion previously.
As Hong Kong’s only pure-play gold miner with global exposure, Zijin Gold may command a premium, though any sharp price gains still depend on sustained gold price strength.
Investors should define their medium- to-long-term gold price thresholds to shape a clear post-IPO strategy for Zijin Gold.


Zijin Gold : Listing Pop Likely. Know Your Thresholds. Avoid Valuation Pitfalls.

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a> priced its IPO at HK$71.59 per share to raise gross proceeds of approximately US$3.2 billion. The shares will begin trading on September 30.</li>
<li>The IPO was discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zijin-gold-ipo-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:201176" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold IPO: The Investment Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zijin-gold-ipo-2259-hk-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:202646" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold IPO (2259 HK): Valuation Insights</a>.</li>
<li>The market sentiment of the peers has increased since the IPO launch. My analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive.</li>
</ul>



Zijin Gold (2259 HK) priced its IPO at HK$71.59 per share to raise gross proceeds of approximately US$3.2 billion. The shares will begin trading on September 30.
The IPO was discussed in Zijin Gold IPO: The Investment Case and Zijin Gold IPO (2259 HK): Valuation Insights.
The market sentiment of the peers has increased since the IPO launch. My analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a> ’s US$3.2 billion IPO closes tomorrow, Wednesday, September 29.</li>
<li>The pure-play gold miner, backed by Zijin Mining, is priced at an EV/Reserves multiple in the top quartile of global peers.</li>
<li>With high sensitivity to gold price movements, Zijin Gold offers amplified upside potential — and downside risk — versus bullion itself.</li>
</ul>



Zijin Gold (2259 HK) ’s US$3.2 billion IPO closes tomorrow, Wednesday, September 29.
The pure-play gold miner, backed by Zijin Mining, is priced at an EV/Reserves multiple in the top quartile of global peers.
With high sensitivity to gold price movements, Zijin Gold offers amplified upside potential — and downside risk — versus bullion itself.


Zijin Gold IPO: Gold Price Sensitivity Analysis. A High Beta Proxy for Gold

Canada

Kinross Gold Corporation is involved in the exploration, development, and production of gold in countries located around the world.  The Company currently has operations in the United States, Brazil, Chile, Mauritania, Ghana and Russia.

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Kinross Gold Corp (KGC US)

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance Preview: Stock Price Moves Shrink Capping Trade

DPM Metals could be added in Dec, while Zijin Gold should miss inclusion. Recent stock moves over have shrunk the capping trade. Estimated 1-way...

Brian Freitas

Zijin Gold (2259 HK): 100% Surge Since IPO. What Gold Price Is Priced In Now?

Bullish gold expectations, potential index inclusion, limited free float, and strong investor demand pushes Zijin Gold above fundamentals.

Devi Subhakesan

Zijin Gold : Listing Pop Likely. Know Your Thresholds. Avoid Valuation Pitfalls.

Over allotment raises issue size and valuation; post-IPO investment strategy should be guided by your gold price outlook and valuation thresholds....

Devi Subhakesan

Zijin Gold IPO (2259 HK): Trading Debut

The market sentiment of the peers has increased since the IPO launch. My analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive.

Arun George

Zijin Gold IPO: Gold Price Sensitivity Analysis. A High Beta Proxy for Gold

Zijin Gold's IPO is priced at premium valuations. It's high gold price sensitivity offer investors amplified upside if the gold rally continues —...

Devi Subhakesan

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