IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

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<li>Several investors have sharply criticised <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>’s preconditional tender offer from Toyota Fudosan. Oasis is pushing for a higher offer. </li>
<li>The offer has several issues that are detrimental to minorities' interests. The key grievance is that it is below TICO’s intrinsic value.</li>
<li>Due to TICO’s varied business units, SoTP valuation is the most appropriate methodology. My analysis suggests a base case intrinsic value of around JPY19,000.</li>
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Several investors have sharply criticised Toyota Industries (6201 JP)’s preconditional tender offer from Toyota Fudosan. Oasis is pushing for a higher offer. 
The offer has several issues that are detrimental to minorities' interests. The key grievance is that it is below TICO’s intrinsic value.
Due to TICO’s varied business units, SoTP valuation is the most appropriate methodology. My analysis suggests a base case intrinsic value of around JPY19,000.


Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Thoughts on Intrinsic Value

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Yes, I agree with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> that the ¥6tn headline price tag for <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a></strong> backs out a ~6x forward EBITDA for the unlisted stub ops.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on the Toyota Group are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>


Yes, I agree with Travis Lundy that the ¥6tn headline price tag for Toyota Industries (6201 JP) backs out a ~6x forward EBITDA for the unlisted stub ops.
Preceding my comments on the Toyota Group are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: On Valuing Toyota Industries (6201)'s Stub Ops

Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-logisnext-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP)</a> shares rose 26% after the Nikkei reported that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-heavy-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13613:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP)</a> is contemplating selling its 64.5% stake. </li>
<li>Logisnext confirmed the sale process. In a fair process, minorities should receive the tender offer price plus the proportionate share of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries’ TOB tax benefits. </li>
<li>Despite the rise in share price, Logisnext trades at a discount to peer multiples. At an offer of JPY2,000, Logisnext would trade in line with median peer multiples.</li>
</ul>



Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP) shares rose 26% after the Nikkei reported that Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP) is contemplating selling its 64.5% stake. 
Logisnext confirmed the sale process. In a fair process, minorities should receive the tender offer price plus the proportionate share of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries’ TOB tax benefits. 
Despite the rise in share price, Logisnext trades at a discount to peer multiples. At an offer of JPY2,000, Logisnext would trade in line with median peer multiples.


Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105 JP): Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP) Seeks to Exit

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>A Nikkei <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Business-deals/Japan-s-Mitsubishi-Heavy-to-sell-forklift-unit-Logisnext" target="_blank" rel="noopener">article</a> this morning several hours pre-open said that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-heavy-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13613:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP)</a> was preparing to sell its listed forklift subsidiary <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-logisnext-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11662:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>The story says <em>"Investors had been pressuring Mitsubishi Heavy to spin off or delist Logisnext"</em> and we know the TSE dislikes dual listings. I would have expected a buy-in but...</li>
<li>There are a number of reasons why a buyer could find this asset attractive. I suggest reading all the way through and the tone of the Conclusions.</li>
</ul>


A Nikkei article this morning several hours pre-open said that Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP) was preparing to sell its listed forklift subsidiary Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP). 
The story says "Investors had been pressuring Mitsubishi Heavy to spin off or delist Logisnext" and we know the TSE dislikes dual listings. I would have expected a buy-in but...
There are a number of reasons why a buyer could find this asset attractive. I suggest reading all the way through and the tone of the Conclusions.


Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105) - The Next Target in Logistics Space?

Equity Bottom-Up

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<p>This week in StubWorld ...</p>
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<p>Ahead of the three-year anniversary lock-up expiring next month, enabling <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus (PRX NA)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naspers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21085:1" rel="noopener">Naspers (NPN SJ)</a> to sell more shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>,  Naspers' look-thru discount of 55% compares with 34% at the time of the Prosus spin-off in September 2019. </p>
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<p>Preceding my comments on Naspers/Prosus/Tencent <em>and </em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pccw-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:873:1" rel="noopener">PCCW Ltd (8 HK)</a>, are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</p>
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<p>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.</p>
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<p>As always, more below the fold.</p>
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This week in StubWorld ...




Ahead of the three-year anniversary lock-up expiring next month, enabling Prosus (PRX NA)/Naspers (NPN SJ) to sell more shares of Tencent Holdings (700 HK),  Naspers' look-thru discount of 55% compares with 34% at the time of the Prosus spin-off in September 2019. 




Preceding my comments on Naspers/Prosus/Tencent and PCCW Ltd (8 HK), are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.



These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.



As always, more below the fold.


StubWorld: Naspers' Unsustainable Look-Through

Germany

KION Group AG provides material handling solutions. The Company offers forklifts, warehouse equipments, and other industrial trucks.

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KION Group (KGX GR)

Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Thoughts on Intrinsic Value

The offer has several issues that are detrimental to minorities' interests. My analysis suggests a base case intrinsic value of around JPY19,000.

Arun George

StubWorld: On Valuing Toyota Industries (6201)'s Stub Ops

My valuation approach backs out a an implied 6x forward EBITDA for the headline ¥6tn rumoured bid. I'm not outright bearish; however my preference...

David Blennerhassett

Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105 JP): Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP) Seeks to Exit

Despite the rise in share price, Logisnext trades at a discount to peer multiples. At an offer of JPY2,000, Logisnext would trade in line with...

Arun George

Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105) - The Next Target in Logistics Space?

The Nikkei carried an article this AM pre-open saying Mit Heavy was looking to sell Mitsubishi Logisnext. Forklift makers aren't having a great...

Travis Lundy

StubWorld: Naspers' Unsustainable Look-Through

Long Naspers vs Tencent, is the obvious trade at the current look-through value. IF Naspers+Prosus decides to sell some more Tencent, expect...

David Blennerhassett

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