Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Memory stocks fell with an average of 6% last week, led by SK Hynix and Samsung. Investors questioned whether hyperscalers and AI model developers can sustain AI infrastructure capex.     </li>
<li>Macro noise (PCE, OpenAI IPO delay) caused investors to realize profit and reduce AI exposure.</li>
<li>Long Macronix (2337 TW) / Short Winbond (2344 TW). Specialty memory monopoly vs. over-leveraged peer. Entry now; Q2 results catalyst 28–30 July 2026.</li>
</ul>


Memory stocks fell with an average of 6% last week, led by SK Hynix and Samsung. Investors questioned whether hyperscalers and AI model developers can sustain AI infrastructure capex.     
Macro noise (PCE, OpenAI IPO delay) caused investors to realize profit and reduce AI exposure.
Long Macronix (2337 TW) / Short Winbond (2344 TW). Specialty memory monopoly vs. over-leveraged peer. Entry now; Q2 results catalyst 28–30 July 2026.


SEMICONDUCTOR MEMORY CYCLE MONITOR — Issue #1 | Week of 22–26 June 2026

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>SOX up ~80% this quarter, one of its biggest ever gains, making quarter-end profit-taking a real risk for high-flying AI names over the next two sessions.</li>
<li>Rohm, Fuji Elec, Renesas and Sanken likely to open weak after Onsemi -24% taken as a warning that there isn’t much upside for power/industrial makers in the DC arena.</li>
<li>European heatwave puts Daikin, Mitsubishi Electric and Panasonic A/C names in focus as a potential distraction from AI volatility into quarter end.</li>
</ul>


SOX up ~80% this quarter, one of its biggest ever gains, making quarter-end profit-taking a real risk for high-flying AI names over the next two sessions.
Rohm, Fuji Elec, Renesas and Sanken likely to open weak after Onsemi -24% taken as a warning that there isn’t much upside for power/industrial makers in the DC arena.
European heatwave puts Daikin, Mitsubishi Electric and Panasonic A/C names in focus as a potential distraction from AI volatility into quarter end.


Japan Morning Connection: AI Names Increasingly Volatile with SOX Reversal and Quarter-End Pressure

<ul>
<li>AI has transformed memory from a cyclical commodity industry into strategic infrastructure, supported by constrained wafer capacity, disciplined supply growth and increasingly durable earnings.</li>
<li>There are fears that the cycle has peaked. However, the insatiable AI demand, limited new capacity, and long-term supply agreements suggest that the industry just passed the half-time.</li>
<li>We are overwhelmingly positive across our coverage universe, with six BUY ratings, one HOLD and one SELL, reflecting our expectation of further upside over the next 12 months.</li>
</ul>


AI has transformed memory from a cyclical commodity industry into strategic infrastructure, supported by constrained wafer capacity, disciplined supply growth and increasingly durable earnings.
There are fears that the cycle has peaked. However, the insatiable AI demand, limited new capacity, and long-term supply agreements suggest that the industry just passed the half-time.
We are overwhelmingly positive across our coverage universe, with six BUY ratings, one HOLD and one SELL, reflecting our expectation of further upside over the next 12 months.


Semiconductor Memory Handbook: Investing Beyond the Cycle (OUTPERFORM)

<ul>
<li>Should still be more upside after Micron’s AH numbers yesterday with many Japanese SPE names still a ways from their recent highs after correcting earlier in the week.</li>
<li>Still yet to see Furukawa, SEI and SWCC play catch up to Fujikura after strong guidance revision this week.</li>
<li>A negative read for JP game developers such as Nintendo and Sony after Microsoft announced price hikes for its Xbox.</li>
</ul>


Should still be more upside after Micron’s AH numbers yesterday with many Japanese SPE names still a ways from their recent highs after correcting earlier in the week.
Still yet to see Furukawa, SEI and SWCC play catch up to Fujikura after strong guidance revision this week.
A negative read for JP game developers such as Nintendo and Sony after Microsoft announced price hikes for its Xbox.


Japan Morning Connection: Room to Run with SPEs Still Below Recent Highs

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>Japanese equities staged a powerful advance through the week with the Nikkei 225 rocketing 7.9% to fresh all-time highs</li>
<li>Semiconductor equipment and technology names led the charge as investors continued to favour beneficiaries of global AI-related capital spending</li>
<li>Murata (+37%) was the top performer on robust demand for high-end multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCCs) used in AI servers</li>
</ul>


Japanese equities staged a powerful advance through the week with the Nikkei 225 rocketing 7.9% to fresh all-time highs
Semiconductor equipment and technology names led the charge as investors continued to favour beneficiaries of global AI-related capital spending
Murata (+37%) was the top performer on robust demand for high-end multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCCs) used in AI servers


Japan Strategy Weekly | Stocks Hit Record Highs as Kioxia Eclipses Toyota

Japan

Kioxia Holdings Corporation manufactures semiconductor memory products. The Company develops, produces, and sells flash memory cards, solid state drives, secure digital memory cards, and other products. Kioxia Holdings also operates group management strategy formulation and management.

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Kioxia Holdings (285A JP)

SEMICONDUCTOR MEMORY CYCLE MONITOR — Issue #1 | Week of 22–26 June 2026

Memory stocks dropped 6% last week as investors worry about AI infrastructure capex sustainability. Profit-taking and macro noise led to reduced...

Mo Aziz

Japan Morning Connection: AI Names Increasingly Volatile with SOX Reversal and Quarter-End Pressure

Japanese AI and semi names face a rocky quarter end with power/industrial stocks, memory names and Softbank all under pressure, while A/C names may...

Andrew Jackson

Semiconductor Memory Handbook: Investing Beyond the Cycle (OUTPERFORM)

AI has revolutionized the memory industry, shifting it from a cyclical commodity to strategic infrastructure with sustainable earnings and growth...

Mo Aziz

Japan Morning Connection: Room to Run with SPEs Still Below Recent Highs

Japanese SPEs have room to run as AI rally yet to be fully priced in, with relative s/t laggards including Lasertec, TEL and Resonac.

Andrew Jackson

Japan Strategy Weekly | Stocks Hit Record Highs as Kioxia Eclipses Toyota

Japanese equities surged to new all-time highs, driven by semiconductor and technology stocks benefiting from global AI-related capital spending,...

Mark Chadwick

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

SEMICONDUCTOR MEMORY CYCLE MONITOR — Issue #1 | Week of 22–26 June 2026

​Memory stocks dropped 6% last week as investors worry about AI infrastructure capex sustainability. Profit-taking and macro noise led to reduced...

Mo Aziz

Japan Morning Connection: AI Names Increasingly Volatile with SOX Reversal and Quarter-End Pressure

Japanese AI and semi names face a rocky quarter end with power/industrial stocks, memory names and Softbank all under pressure, while A/C names may...

Andrew Jackson

Semiconductor Memory Handbook: Investing Beyond the Cycle (OUTPERFORM)

​AI has revolutionized the memory industry, shifting it from a cyclical commodity to strategic infrastructure with sustainable earnings and growth...

Mo Aziz

Japan Morning Connection: Room to Run with SPEs Still Below Recent Highs

Japanese SPEs have room to run as AI rally yet to be fully priced in, with relative s/t laggards including Lasertec, TEL and Resonac.

Andrew Jackson

Japan Strategy Weekly | Stocks Hit Record Highs as Kioxia Eclipses Toyota

​Japanese equities surged to new all-time highs, driven by semiconductor and technology stocks benefiting from global AI-related capital spending,...

Mark Chadwick

Memory stocks dropped 6% last week as investors worry about AI infrastructure capex sustainability. Profit-taking and macro noise led to reduced...

AI has revolutionized the memory industry, shifting it from a cyclical commodity to strategic infrastructure with sustainable earnings and growth...

Japanese equities surged to new all-time highs, driven by semiconductor and technology stocks benefiting from global AI-related capital spending,...