Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Kioxia is planning to offer its IPO on 18 December 2024.  This Insight profiles Kioxia and its market.</li>
<li>NAND flash, Kioxia's product, is a commodity, and that results in dramatic price, revenue, and margin swings.</li>
<li>Kioxia is in a joint venture that provides excellent scale economies which are offset by a supply agreement that amplifies troubles caused by oversupplies</li>
</ul>


Kioxia is planning to offer its IPO on 18 December 2024.  This Insight profiles Kioxia and its market.
NAND flash, Kioxia's product, is a commodity, and that results in dramatic price, revenue, and margin swings.
Kioxia is in a joint venture that provides excellent scale economies which are offset by a supply agreement that amplifies troubles caused by oversupplies


Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

Kioxia Holdings  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Kioxia has announced the terms for its IPO, and plans to raise $730m through issuing new shares as well as offer by existing shareholders, at a market capitalisation of $819bn.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kioxia-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29243:1" rel="noopener">Kioxia Holdings (285A JP)</a> 's earnings have been volatile and margins have trailed compared to peers Micron and SK Hynix. Earnings are approaching a new peak.</li>
<li>Kioxia’s implied valuation multiples are at a deep discount to peer multiples, suggesting there is significant upside to the indicative IPO price range.</li>
</ul>


Kioxia has announced the terms for its IPO, and plans to raise $730m through issuing new shares as well as offer by existing shareholders, at a market capitalisation of $819bn.

Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) 's earnings have been volatile and margins have trailed compared to peers Micron and SK Hynix. Earnings are approaching a new peak.
Kioxia’s implied valuation multiples are at a deep discount to peer multiples, suggesting there is significant upside to the indicative IPO price range.


Kioxia IPO: Peer Comparison and Valuation

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kioxia-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29243:1" rel="noopener">Kioxia Holdings (285A JP)</a>'s listing has been approved by the JPX and the stock is expected to start trading on the Prime Market from 18 December.</li>
<li>At the mid-point of the IPO price range of JPY 1390-1520/share, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kioxia-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29243:1" rel="noopener">Kioxia Holdings (285A JP)</a> will be valued at JPY 784bn (US$5.24bn).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">TOPIX</a> inclusion will take place in January while inclusion in global indices is likely to take place in May and June. Selling stock to increase float will be an overhang.</li>
</ul>



Kioxia Holdings (285A JP)'s listing has been approved by the JPX and the stock is expected to start trading on the Prime Market from 18 December.
At the mid-point of the IPO price range of JPY 1390-1520/share, Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) will be valued at JPY 784bn (US$5.24bn).

TOPIX inclusion will take place in January while inclusion in global indices is likely to take place in May and June. Selling stock to increase float will be an overhang.


Kioxia (285A) IPO: Index Entry Timeline & Overhang from Plans to Increase Float

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kioxia-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29243:1" rel="noopener">Kioxia Holdings (285A JP)</a> is aiming to raise around US$840m (including over-allocation) in its Japan IPO.</li>
<li>It was the world’s largest pure-play NAND flash memory supplier, in terms of both revenue and unit shipments in 2023, according to TechInsights.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the IPO valuations.</li>
</ul>



Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) is aiming to raise around US$840m (including over-allocation) in its Japan IPO.
It was the world’s largest pure-play NAND flash memory supplier, in terms of both revenue and unit shipments in 2023, according to TechInsights.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the IPO valuations.


Kioxia IPO - Should Price at the Top, Though Peers Are Still Correcting

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kioxia-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29243:1" rel="noopener">Kioxia Holdings (285A JP)</a> is aiming to raise around US$700m (including over-allocation) from its Japan IPO.</li>
<li>It was the world’s largest pure-play NAND flash memory supplier, in terms of both revenue and unit shipments in 2023, according to TechInsights.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company's past performance in our earlier notes. In this note we talk about valuations.</li>
</ul>



Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) is aiming to raise around US$700m (including over-allocation) from its Japan IPO.
It was the world’s largest pure-play NAND flash memory supplier, in terms of both revenue and unit shipments in 2023, according to TechInsights.
We have looked at the company's past performance in our earlier notes. In this note we talk about valuations.


Japan

Kioxia Holdings Corporation manufactures semiconductor memory products. The Company develops, produces, and sells flash memory cards, solid state drives, secure digital memory cards, and other products. Kioxia Holdings also operates group management strategy formulation and management.

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Kioxia Holdings (285A JP)

Understanding Kioxia, A Worthwhile IPO?

With Kioxia's upcoming IPO prospective stockholders need to consider the challenges of the volatile NAND flash market, Kioxia's competition, and...

Jim Handy

Kioxia IPO: Peer Comparison and Valuation

Kioxia's implied valuation multiples are at a deep discounts to peer multiples. The company’s earnings have been volatile and margins have trailed...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Kioxia (285A) IPO: Index Entry Timeline & Overhang from Plans to Increase Float

Kioxia will list on the JPX on 18 Dec with a market cap of US$5-5.5bn. There will be a few index inclusions from Jan to June. The tradable share...

Brian Freitas

Kioxia IPO - Should Price at the Top, Though Peers Are Still Correcting

Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) is aiming to raise around US$840m (including over-allocation) in its Japan IPO. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.

Sumeet Singh

Kioxia Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuations

At the final price range kioxia still offers enough upside even from the top-end, even after we apply a discount to its valuation versus its listed...

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Understanding Kioxia, A Worthwhile IPO?

With ​Kioxia's upcoming IPO prospective stockholders need to consider the challenges of the volatile NAND flash market, Kioxia's competition, and...

Jim Handy

Kioxia IPO: Peer Comparison and Valuation

Kioxia's implied valuation multiples are at a deep discounts to peer multiples. The company’s earnings have been volatile and margins have trailed...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Kioxia (285A) IPO: Index Entry Timeline & Overhang from Plans to Increase Float

Kioxia will list on the JPX on 18 Dec with a market cap of US$5-5.5bn. There will be a few index inclusions from Jan to June. The tradable share...

Brian Freitas

Kioxia IPO - Should Price at the Top, Though Peers Are Still Correcting

Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) is aiming to raise around US$840m (including over-allocation) in its Japan IPO. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.

Sumeet Singh

Kioxia Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuations

At the final price range kioxia still offers enough upside even from the top-end, even after we apply a discount to its valuation versus its listed...

Sumeet Singh

With Kioxia's upcoming IPO prospective stockholders need to consider the challenges of the volatile NAND flash market, Kioxia's competition, and...