Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Both DRAM and NAND flash have trended down in 4Q21 and 1Q22, but both markets are still more than 20% higher than last year</li>
<li>Samsung and Micron both made modest Q/Q share gains in both DRAM and NAND flash while all others experienced modest market share losses</li>
<li>Micron's new focus on profit share is paying off, providing the company a better payback than its competition.</li>
</ul>


Both DRAM and NAND flash have trended down in 4Q21 and 1Q22, but both markets are still more than 20% higher than last year
Samsung and Micron both made modest Q/Q share gains in both DRAM and NAND flash while all others experienced modest market share losses
Micron's new focus on profit share is paying off, providing the company a better payback than its competition.


Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Phison reached to NT$17.1bn, 32%, 14% and NT$10.49 for revenue, GM, NM and the Diluted EPS in 1Q22.</li>
<li>We estimate it could be a slight positive growth in 2022, which could reach NT$18.1bn/32.5% for revenue/GM respectively.</li>
<li>Phison and its competitors shall continuously strive in Flash card and the related business.</li>
</ul>


Phison reached to NT$17.1bn, 32%, 14% and NT$10.49 for revenue, GM, NM and the Diluted EPS in 1Q22.
We estimate it could be a slight positive growth in 2022, which could reach NT$18.1bn/32.5% for revenue/GM respectively.
Phison and its competitors shall continuously strive in Flash card and the related business.


Phison (8299.TT): 2Q22 Could Expect a Slightly Growth QoQ

<ul>
<li>The semiconductor market is now 45% above its normal revenue trend.</li>
<li>This situation is driven mostly by today's COVID-related demand changes.</li>
<li>Eventually the market will return to its normal growth, with revenues dropping by over 30%.</li>
</ul>


The semiconductor market is now 45% above its normal revenue trend.
This situation is driven mostly by today's COVID-related demand changes.
Eventually the market will return to its normal growth, with revenues dropping by over 30%.


Semiconductor Revenues Remain Well Above Trend

<ul>
<li>Micron's 2QF22 results were above the high end of guidance</li>
<li>The company's outlook for the current quarter is very strong</li>
<li>Market data supports the company's bullish outlook, and Micron's performance speaks for itself</li>
</ul>


Micron's 2QF22 results were above the high end of guidance
The company's outlook for the current quarter is very strong
Market data supports the company's bullish outlook, and Micron's performance speaks for itself


<ul>
<li>We estimate Phison could reach NT$14.1bn sales and GM 25% outlook in 1Q22.</li>
<li>For 2022, it stars with a good beginning for 5~10% NAND price lifted, and Phison’s insistence on NAND Flash controller technology and allied with AMD.</li>
<li>Phison would maintain its solid dividend policy and it’s 80% in the past. It was ~NT$63 EPS in 2021. </li>
</ul>


We estimate Phison could reach NT$14.1bn sales and GM 25% outlook in 1Q22.
For 2022, it stars with a good beginning for 5~10% NAND price lifted, and Phison’s insistence on NAND Flash controller technology and allied with AMD.
Phison would maintain its solid dividend policy and it’s 80% in the past. It was ~NT$63 EPS in 2021. 


Phison (8299.TT): Insistence in NAND Flash Technology

Japan

Kioxia Holdings Corporation manufactures semiconductor memory products. The Company develops, produces, and sells flash memory cards, solid state drives, secure digital memory cards, and other products. Kioxia Holdings also operates group management strategy formulation and management.

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Kioxia Holdings (285A JP)

Q1 Memory Results Down, But Encouraging

The semiconductor memory business - DRAM and NAND flash - is doing very well, with revenues over 20% above the year-ago quarter, and good...

Jim Handy

Phison (8299.TT): 2Q22 Could Expect a Slightly Growth QoQ

Phison reached to NT$17.1bn, 32%, 14% and NT$10.49 for revenue, GM, NM and the Diluted EPS in 1Q22. We estimate it could reach NT$18.1bn and 32.5%...

Patrick Liao

Semiconductor Revenues Remain Well Above Trend

Semiconductors are 45% above their long-term revenue trend. This is poised to continue for the near term, but a big change will occur further out.

Jim Handy

Micron Posts Another Excellent Quarter

Micron Technology posted solid results for its 2QF22 with a very positive outlook. The company has been performing superbly, and should do very...

Jim Handy

Phison (8299.TT): Insistence in NAND Flash Technology

We estimate Phison will reach NT$14.1bn sales and 25% GM outlook in 1Q22. For 2022, it stars with a good beginning for 5~10% NAND price lifted.

Patrick Liao

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