Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In mid-May 2022, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kito-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19512:1" rel="noopener">Kito Corporation (6409 JP)</a> announced KKR would launch a Tender Offer to buy out the company at a big premium. I warned about the register.</li>
<li>Two large shareholders were there prior to the bid - one "engagement-style" activist and one private company in a similar industry. Both had a 9+% holding visible.</li>
<li>Both have now lifted their stakes above 10% post-announcement, at a small spread to terms. This makes things more interesting.</li>
</ul>


In mid-May 2022, Kito Corporation (6409 JP) announced KKR would launch a Tender Offer to buy out the company at a big premium. I warned about the register.
Two large shareholders were there prior to the bid - one "engagement-style" activist and one private company in a similar industry. Both had a 9+% holding visible.
Both have now lifted their stakes above 10% post-announcement, at a small spread to terms. This makes things more interesting.


Kito (6409) Shareholder Register Getting Interestinger

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> rebalance was implemented at the close on Friday and there were a bunch of review cutoffs on the same day.</li>
<li>Passive Hang Seng trackers need to sell <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> at the close on 4 January following <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> in-specie distribution.</li>
<li>We take a look at flows to Asian focused ETFs over the course of 2022. A lot of winners in terms of AUM, but a few losers too.</li>
</ul>


The Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) rebalance was implemented at the close on Friday and there were a bunch of review cutoffs on the same day.
Passive Hang Seng trackers need to sell Meituan (3690 HK) at the close on 4 January following Tencent (700 HK) in-specie distribution.
We take a look at flows to Asian focused ETFs over the course of 2022. A lot of winners in terms of AUM, but a few losers too.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: Meituan, S&P/ASX All Tech, 2022 ETF Flows

<ul>
<li>A week after JIP gets preferred status and we had rumoured bid prices, we now have an article saying JIC/Bain is still in it, and a new article today.</li>
<li>Today's "new" article says JIP's bid price is what the first leak suggested, which is below ¥6,000/share. Other articles suggest bidders are finding that securing financing is tough. </li>
<li>Investors should look at process and understand the difference between this one and most others. It matters. Some news is not news, other than telling you the dance has started.</li>
</ul>


A week after JIP gets preferred status and we had rumoured bid prices, we now have an article saying JIC/Bain is still in it, and a new article today.
Today's "new" article says JIP's bid price is what the first leak suggested, which is below ¥6,000/share. Other articles suggest bidders are finding that securing financing is tough. 
Investors should look at process and understand the difference between this one and most others. It matters. Some news is not news, other than telling you the dance has started.


Toshiba (6502) - There Is Actual News, and There Are Datapoints Which Masquerade as News

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10928:1" rel="noopener">SBI Holdings (8473 JP)</a>'s subsidiary has <a href="https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20220930/k10013843881000.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reportedly</a> filed its application to become a Bank Holding Company, the definition being a company holding a 50% or greater stake in a bank.</li>
<li>The day after I last wrote, Shinsei <a href="https://www.shinseibank.com/corporate/en/news/pdf/pdf2022/221003_corporatenameLP_e.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> it had received approval to change its name to SBI Shinsei Bank as of 4 January 2023.</li>
<li>My expectation is the move above 50% happens sooner rather than later. And in that case, investors should think about their approach. Get your cowbells ready.</li>
</ul>



SBI Holdings (8473 JP)'s subsidiary has reportedly filed its application to become a Bank Holding Company, the definition being a company holding a 50% or greater stake in a bank.
The day after I last wrote, Shinsei announced it had received approval to change its name to SBI Shinsei Bank as of 4 January 2023.
My expectation is the move above 50% happens sooner rather than later. And in that case, investors should think about their approach. Get your cowbells ready.


Thinking Strategically About a Shinsei Position - Things To Do NOW

<ul>
<li>KKR-Owned Crosby got SAMR approval to buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kito-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19512:1" rel="noopener">Kito Corporation (6409 JP)</a> several days ago apparently and has launched its deal. It will be a 21-day tender. Very quick.</li>
<li>It was a strong premium, but still a light price, at announcement. And that was when USD/yen was lower. Since then, earnings and forecasts are way up. But price unchanged.</li>
<li>What looked like a likely candidate for bump agitation has seen none (that I am aware of) so this is pretty straightforward.</li>
</ul>


KKR-Owned Crosby got SAMR approval to buy Kito Corporation (6409 JP) several days ago apparently and has launched its deal. It will be a 21-day tender. Very quick.
It was a strong premium, but still a light price, at announcement. And that was when USD/yen was lower. Since then, earnings and forecasts are way up. But price unchanged.
What looked like a likely candidate for bump agitation has seen none (that I am aware of) so this is pretty straightforward.


Kito (6409) - KKR/Crosby Takeover Launches - High Premium in Weak Year, But Still Light to Value

Japan

KITO CORPORATION manufactures and sells load handling machinery and equipment. The Company also designs and builds facilities and provides maintenance services Main products include chain hoists and all kinds of cranes.

Kito Corporation (6409 JP)

Kito (6409) Shareholder Register Getting Interestinger

Kito had two large shareholders in the register prior to the KKR bid announcement. Both have now reported a 10+% position. Purpose unknown. I doubt...

Travis Lundy

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: Meituan, S&P/ASX All Tech, 2022 ETF Flows

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A changes). We also highlight large...

Brian Freitas

Toshiba (6502) - There Is Actual News, and There Are Datapoints Which Masquerade as News

Toshiba has come off its recent highs vs Peers as less bullish "news" appears. Some of that news is not news as much as it is datapoint in a...

Travis Lundy

Thinking Strategically About a Shinsei Position - Things To Do NOW

Shinsei Bank may be in its last throes of independence. Shareholders usually do not get the chance to pester the Board before a price is...

Travis Lundy

Kito (6409) - KKR/Crosby Takeover Launches - High Premium in Weak Year, But Still Light to Value

KKR-run Crosby has announced its deal for Kito (6409) having received SAMR approval. This is now a fast tender, but as nobody has made noise on...

Travis Lundy