IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/propertyguru-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28149:1" rel="noopener">PropertyGuru (PGRU US)</a> entered into a definitive merger agreement with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eqt-ab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28922:1" rel="noopener">EQT (EQT SS)</a> at US$6.70 per share, a 51.9% premium to the undisturbed price of US$4.41 (21 May).</li>
<li>The shareholder vote is done (two-thirds voting threshold) due to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tpg-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35361:1" rel="noopener">TPG Inc (TPG US)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kkr-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27333:1" rel="noopener">KKR &amp; Co (KKR US)</a>’s support and drag-along rights relating to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rea-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:699:1" rel="noopener">REA Group Ltd (REA AU)</a>’s shares.  </li>
<li>This is a clean deal as there is no dissenting condition or requirement for country antitrust approvals. At the last close and for end-of-year payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.3%/6.4%.</li>
</ul>



PropertyGuru (PGRU US) entered into a definitive merger agreement with EQT (EQT SS) at US$6.70 per share, a 51.9% premium to the undisturbed price of US$4.41 (21 May).
The shareholder vote is done (two-thirds voting threshold) due to TPG Inc (TPG US)/KKR &amp; Co (KKR US)’s support and drag-along rights relating to REA Group Ltd (REA AU)’s shares.  
This is a clean deal as there is no dissenting condition or requirement for country antitrust approvals. At the last close and for end-of-year payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.3%/6.4%.


PropertyGuru (PGRU US): EQT’s US$6.70 Offer Is A Done Deal

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Dimitris Ioannidis

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

<ul>
<li>IPO lock-up expiry of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> results in a forecasted increase in free float to 35% and fcap of $2.9bn for the August 2024 review. </li>
<li>Secondary offering of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> results in a forecasted increase in free float to 60-65% and latest fcap of $3.4bn- $3.7bn for the November 2024 review. </li>
<li>Inclusion will be determined based on fcap against the fcap threshold. Fcap uncertainty for November is largely driven by stock price fluctuations and the Greenshoe Option. </li>
</ul>


IPO lock-up expiry of Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) results in a forecasted increase in free float to 35% and fcap of $2.9bn for the August 2024 review. 
Secondary offering of Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) results in a forecasted increase in free float to 60-65% and latest fcap of $3.4bn- $3.7bn for the November 2024 review. 
Inclusion will be determined based on fcap against the fcap threshold. Fcap uncertainty for November is largely driven by stock price fluctuations and the Greenshoe Option. 


Kokusai Electric (6525): Global Index Inclusion Highly Dependent on Free Float

China Traditional Chinese Medicine / Event-Driven

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yichang-hec-changjiang-pharmaceutical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21040:1" rel="noopener">Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canvest-environmental-protection-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:100:1" rel="noopener">Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/malaysia-airports-holdings-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:117:1" rel="noopener">Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB MK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asia-cement-china-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3374:1" rel="noopener">Asia Cement China (743 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>Lowest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-soft-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17504:1" rel="noopener">Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/second-chance-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20342:1" rel="noopener">Second Chance Properties (SCE SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/descente-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8225:1" rel="noopener">Descente Ltd (8114 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/c-i-takiron-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18675:1" rel="noopener">C.I. TAKIRON Corporation (4215 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fancl-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15862:1" rel="noopener">Fancl Corp (4921 JP)</a>.
</li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK), China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK), Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK), Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB MK), Asia Cement China (743 HK). 
Lowest spreads: Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP), Second Chance Properties (SCE SP), Descente Ltd (8114 JP), C.I. TAKIRON Corporation (4215 JP), Fancl Corp (4921 JP).



Merger Arb Mondays (12 Aug) - China TCM, Canvest, GA Pack, Fuji Soft, Fancl, Descente, Takiron

<ul>
<li>Following media reports, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-soft-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17504:1" rel="noopener">Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP)</a> announced a pre-conditional tender offer from KKR at JPY8,800 per share, a 1.0% discount to the last close price of JPY8,890 (8 August).</li>
<li>The pre-condition is approvals under competition laws of Japan, Vietnam and possibly Belgium. The offer is anticipated to commence in mid-September.</li>
<li>The offer is a knockout bid and the culmination of an auction process. The board's recommendation and the irrevocables from activist shareholders ensure this deal is done.</li>
</ul>


Following media reports, Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP) announced a pre-conditional tender offer from KKR at JPY8,800 per share, a 1.0% discount to the last close price of JPY8,890 (8 August).
The pre-condition is approvals under competition laws of Japan, Vietnam and possibly Belgium. The offer is anticipated to commence in mid-September.
The offer is a knockout bid and the culmination of an auction process. The board's recommendation and the irrevocables from activist shareholders ensure this deal is done.


Fuji Soft (9749 JP): KKR Pre-Conditional Tender Offer at JPY8,800

Equity Capital Markets

Kokusai Electric  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Since the US$2.0 billion secondary placement announcement, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a>’s shares are down 5.6% from the undisturbed price of JPY5,520 per share (8 July).</li>
<li>Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Kokusai’s shares have followed the pattern of previous large placements.</li>
<li>The offering will likely be priced on 22 July. Investors who have participated in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.</li>
</ul>


Since the US$2.0 billion secondary placement announcement, Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)’s shares are down 5.6% from the undisturbed price of JPY5,520 per share (8 July).
Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Kokusai’s shares have followed the pattern of previous large placements.
The offering will likely be priced on 22 July. Investors who have participated in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.


Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): The Current Playbook

United States

KKR & Co. Inc. operates as an investment firm. The Company manages investments such as private equity, energy, infrastructure, real estate, credit strategies, and hedge funds. KKR & Co serves clients worldwide.

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KKR & Co (KKR US)

PropertyGuru (PGRU US): EQT’s US$6.70 Offer Is A Done Deal

This is a clean deal; the vote is done, and there are no dissenting conditions or country antitrust approvals. At the last close and for end-of...

Arun George

Kokusai Electric (6525): Global Index Inclusion Highly Dependent on Free Float

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) was added at this August 2024 review. It is estimated that the IPO lock-up expiry resulted in the forecasted increase in...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Merger Arb Mondays (12 Aug) - China TCM, Canvest, GA Pack, Fuji Soft, Fancl, Descente, Takiron

This week, the highest gross spreads are HEC Pharma (112.5%), China TCM (27.1%), Canvest (11.4%), Malaysia Airports (10.1%), Asia Cement China...

Arun George

Fuji Soft (9749 JP): KKR Pre-Conditional Tender Offer at JPY8,800

The offer is a knockout bid and the culmination of an auction process. The board's recommendation and the irrevocables from activist shareholders...

Arun George

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): The Current Playbook

The offering will likely be priced on 22 July. Investors who have participated in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.

Arun George

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